Friday, December 2, 2011

SILVER Weekly Chart

Lots of interesting things to look at on this long term silver chart. The red lines show the negative divergence and rising wedge that slammed price in 2008, silver falling from 22 to 8, or 64%. The price bubble top in 2011 was popped by the CME raising margin requirements. Note that negative divergence did not occur for silver at the 2011 top, sans stochastics.

The pink boxes highlight the tops over the last eight years. The tops were motoring along at 2-year-ish intervals but the 2008-2009 crash created the recent three-year interval between peaks. Thus, an assumption is made that the trend will return or at least resume the expected cycle so another peak should come in a year or two. If we just finished the 3rd wave up, we are heading lower to build a base for the final 5th wave up. In a couple year time frame, this price move could easily correlate with expected hyperinflation. The quandry is that the majority of traders expect the hyperinflation to occur any day now (due to money printing) and the next peak in price to occur any day now as well. Keystone thinks it will be further off, at least a year or two, perhaps more.

If silver corrects 64% from 50, using 2008 as a fractal, price would drop 32 bucks off the top to target 18. Price could retrace to the 12-20 area and few people expect that--the market always has a way of surprising the greatest number of people. The teal trend line over the last three years is important. Price now moving across the sideways triangle ready to decide on a direction. The orange lines exhibited positive divegence that helped price bounce in October but note the downward-sloping dark blue lines that want lower prices moving forward. Projection is for lower prices for the weeks and months ahead, initially moving downwards to 25 as we move into 2012. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.