SPX S&P 500, CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; Panic and Fear Finally Starting to Appear

After a drop in the SPX from 7K to 6624, a nearly 4 hundo point loss, -5.5%, panic and fear is finally starting to appear in the stock market. Sometimes people do not believe so you have to shove it down their throats until they gag on it. Then they believe. The stock market complacency and uber bullishness was a constant theme late last year into this year. This was proven by the low put/call ratios (red circles).

When the year started, there was a tinge of fear with some traders worried about a repeat of the prior year when stocks fell after everyone proclaimed nothing but upside ahead a la Irving Fisher in 1929. That spike in panic and fear created the rally shown by the green bar on the SPX chart. That rally was a run from a bottom at 6824 to 6985 let's call it a 160 points.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was not invited to the spring cotillion this Friday, the start of year fractal may repeat now. That would create a rally from 6624 to 6784 if it follows the previous fractal.

Thus, tread carefully if short since a relief rally is likely at hand. As previously explained, the hourly and daily SPX charts are encouraging for a relief rally due to the positive divergence, and a couple chart indicators on the weekly chart agree with, and will help create, that buoyancy. However, indicators on the SPX weekly chart remain weak and bleak so lower lows in SPX price are desired going forward on the weekly basis.

Thus, Keystone has to work on his thus's if he wants invited to the April Fool's Day bash at the Amvets Club, stocks will likely stage a relief rally bounce over the coming days but weakness should reappear a week or two out. Any trades depend on your time frames. If you are willing to hold your shorts for a while and endure a relief rally, that may be strong, pay no mind since the additional weakness ahead in the weekly time frame will take care of that trade in the future.

If a shorter term trader, take some profits on shorts and flip them long but you must be nimble if playing long and keep close attention. The Iran War is not going well and things may go to Hell in a handbasket at anytime. King Donnie Chump, that started a major world war, now is telling Iran and Israel to deescalate. Trumpski is in a mess and in way over his orange head. Donnie threatens everyone daily and the bloviations from the 80-year old showman have less of an impact. Iran plans to keep attacking ignoring Trumpski's words. Chump started a war that he can no longer control or finish.

For today and the next few days, however, be alert to a relief rally starting. When the Whip Comes Down. There is no cooler guitar player than Keith Richards. Humorously, at this point, the drugs and alcohol is what keeps him alive. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:46 PM EST: The SPX drops -0.3% to 6606. The LOD is 6557. Price came down for an initial look at the key 6550 horizontal price support, and bounced. The 200-day MA support gives way at 6619 that now becomes resistance. Price is making a bounce or die decision at the 200. If it bounces, watch the 10-mth MA resistance at 6665. The SPX 2-hour chart is positively diverged wanting to see a bounce. The SPX daily chart is possie d sans the MACD that remains weak and bleak and may want a jog move of 2 days to place the bottom in the daily time frame (up tomorrow, down Monday for the bottom with MACD going possie d). It is same-o analysis. Stocks should bottom in daily time frame anytime now through Monday. Today's low at the critical 6550 may have been the bottom. The rally will be in the daily time frame only since the weekly time frame will eventually want lower lows in SPX price on the weekly basis going forward. There is happy talk that the Iran War may end quickly. Someone says this every day. That Joe Kent dude that quit Trumpski's security team looks like Eddie Munster. King Donnie needs asked how many drones are remaining in Iran and in how many locations across that vast nation? It tells you how long the war will last. Is there two drones parked at 1,000 different locations around Iran to be used anytime? if so, it is another Nam. For now, people want to feel Happy. If anyone wonders what rock 'n roll is, that's it.

Note Added 3/21/26: The bears pull out the knives and the blood flows on Wall and Broad. The SPX collapses -100 points, -1.5%, to 6506, on Friday, 3/20/26. LOD 6473. The SPX takes out the Thanksgiving low. All of you that bot stock for your children at Christmastime and during the holidays gave them a gift that is losing value fast. Mommy, I wish you would have given me the e-bike instead. Junior, do not forget, you are in it for the long-term. Mommy, in the long-term, I'm dead. Humorously, people ask what is a long-term investment? That is a short-term trade that went the wrong way. No one is laughing about the ongoing Iran War and the likelihood that high gasoline prices will remain for a couple years or at least many months. People that use their vehicles for work are screwed. Diesel is over 5 bucks. Oh well, time to pull out the gasoline syphon. Back in the energy crisis the late 1970's, times were tough so folks would syphon gasoline out of cars and put it in their car. You would suck real hard on the end of the tube to get the syphon going and sometimes be spitting out gasoline--but you did not care since you were saving a few bucks thieving off someone else. There was then better syphons available that have a little hand pump that can begin the suction and syphon and get the gasoline flowing into the container, while looking over your shoulder for the cops. There is a lot of rhyming with the 1970's that is occurring these days. Sadly, helicopters went down in the desert when Jimmy Farter tried to save the hostages in Iran and fast forward 50 years, a refueling plane goes down in the desert when Donnie Chump tries to destroy the radical Islamist leadership in Iran.