NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40-Week MA Cross; Ongoing Cyclical Bear Market Faces Critical Back Test

Today is stock market drama day as Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High telling traders how to trade. The two key metrics that separate cyclical bull and bear markets are the NYA 40-wk MA cross and SPX 12-mth MA cross. Both are negative verifying the ongoing cyclical bear market.

However, there is a critical back test occurring for the NYA currently. The 40-wk MA is at 19380-19383 and price is at 19182 coming up for the back kiss. Remember, the right-hand candlestick is this week so it is in progress. If Powell is dovish, stocks may go to the moon and that candlestick would turn white and pop higher into cyclical bull territory.

You can see that price came up last week and bumped its head on the critical 40-wk MA resistance line in the sand, and this week, so far, it receives a slap-down. The next few days are extremely important and tell you the path forward for the stock market for the weeks and months ahead.

If the NYA remains below 19380-19383, and the SPX remains below its 12-mth MA at 5733-5740, the stock market is toast going forward especially after a successful back kiss by the bears. The real stock market downside path will begin as the cyclical bear market begins to bite hard.

If the NYA pops above 19380-19383, perhaps on Powell happy dovish talk, the bulls will become emboldened. The next goal for bulls will be the SPX at 5733-5740 and if that is taken out to the upside, wow, stocks will rally higher returning into a cyclical bull market.

If the NYA pops above 19380-19383, but the SPX is unable to achieve 5733, stocks will likely roll over again and if the NYA loses the 40-wk MA that will chart a path of doom and gloom ahead like the first scenario. Choose your Poison. Every Rose Has Its Thorn. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday, I'm In Love, 5/9/25, at 7:27 AM EST: The NYA jumps above the critical 19383 line in the sand with the bulls puffing their chests out signaling the all-clear only to be running for their lives into the closing bell as NYA collapses back below 19383. Do you think the NYA 40-wk MA cross is important? The battle will continue for a few days or week or two since this is such a critical juncture (deciding if the current cyclical bear market since March remains in effect). The third scenario was in play for a while but the stock market falls back into the dire first scenario at the end of the session. As per the Keybot the Quant robot, that currently remains long, bulls need NYA above 19383 and VIX below 21.80 to send stocks to the moon. Bears need to keep these two metrics negative while at the same time weaken the chips and retail stocks. NYA 19383 and VIX 21.80 tell you if the bulls will be Saying Goodbye, or not, as Ondara sings. 

Note Added 5/13/25, at 6:09 PM EST: The bulls win after King Donnie lowers the tariffs on China but they remain elevated. Go figure. The indexes catapult to the stratosphere with a bull orgy in full gear. Both the NYA and SPX (popping over 5900) return to cyclical bull market patterns.