The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Chart; US LABOR RECESSION STARTED 9/8/23 NOW 10 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING

THE UNITED STATES LABOR RECESSION STARTED ON 9/8/23 AND IS 10 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING. The country also remains in a housing recession and manufacturing recession but an overall US recession continues vacationing with Godot. That is craziness.

The economy is carried on the backs of the wealthy elite, and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, as they continue to spend money feeling the wealth effect after decades of easy stock market gains courtesy of the Federal Reserve's money-printing. Tech is the overriding force in the markets these days as chips are worshipped like the golden calf in the desert. Semiconductors are the new gold and the AI afterburners launch the tech euphoria into the stratosphere. These forces, the wealthy with pockets full of money, and the tech/semi/AI hype trade, are overcoming the sickness in the labor market, housing market and manufacturing sector.

However, as Willie sings, all good things come to an end and the Party's Over. For the last couple months, the wealthy elite and upper middle class are showing signs of less spending perhaps some now worried that their cushy job, lying around at home, doing minimal productive work, has an expiration date. Airports continue setting records for travel so it will be interesting to see if that lessens. Artificial Intelligence, AI, has become All-In with the Uber guy, shoeshine boy and doorman buying NVDA with entire paychecks.

Here is the link to the prior chart and commentary that provides more color on America's crony capitalism system in its last throes.

The unemployment rate continues higher now at 4.1% as shown on the righthand side of the chart the highest since December 2021, 2-1/2 years ago, when the rate was 4.2% and on its way lower in 2022 and 2023. The low prints were a 3.4% rate in February 2023 and May 2023. The US unemployment rate is now 0.7% above those lows.

The blue line is diverging up and away from the red line which means trouble ahead and it is time to watch your wallet. Over the coming weeks and months, some of you will be called into the boss's office that will tell you to clear your desk drawers, pack up your family pictures, house plant that needs watered, and change for the coffee machine, and get the Hell out. Oh yeah, hand in your badge and door card since you are no longer allowed in the building. Branded.

Young adults under 40 years old will learn a lot about yourselves and the people around you as the country slides into recession this year. You lived through the pandemic recession but that was an oddball animal in its own right. In an economic recession, you or your significant other will likely lose your job, maybe both of you, so obviously you should already be planning for such an outcome. Also understand, that if you think it is easy to get another job now and you are not worried, you are living a false reality. In a recession, hundreds of other folks will now want the same available job and the guy that told you to call him anytime you wanted to work for him now does not even take your phone calls.

For the next Jobs Report on 8/2/24, the unemployment rate can be 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, and higher, for the US labor recession to continue. The rate would need to drop to 3.7% or lower to nullify the labor recession and instead point towards a steadier growth pattern ahead. With the rate at 4.1% now, in an uptrend, it is hard to imagine that a 3.7% print will occur in 4 weeks. It would be a huge 0.4% pullback. It is easier to Imagine, as John sings, that a 4.2%, 4.1% or 4.0% number will occur on 8/2/24. It appears that, like Uncle Bob in a guest room downstairs, the labor recession is here to stay and does not want to leave.