BTCUSD Bitcoin Weekly Chart; Double-Top (M-Top) Pattern; Negative Divergence

Bitcoin is placing a double-top, or M-top if you prefer. Price prints a matching high but the chart indicators are all in negative divergence (sloping down; out of gas). It is an ugly chart. A spankdown would be expected and start of a multi-week decline and the current week's candlestick is cooperating to the downside.

As price came up for the matching high, the ADX falls back which means despite the higher price, the trend higher for bitcoin is not as strong as a few months ago. The purple box shows when bitcoin went into a strong trend higher late last year. The upside orgy followed. Now the ADX threatens to fall out of the purple box which means the strong trend higher for bitcoin on the weekly basis is officially over. Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste like grapes.

The Aroon positive bullish cross took place at the start of 2023 forecasting blue skies, rainbows, lollipops and puppy dogs for many weeks ahead. The party is over one year along and now the drunkenness and arguing and fighting begins, then the cops are called.  SRV. There's some bad honky-tonker's really laying it down. Come on baby, shake somethin' loose.

Price violated the upper standard deviation line on the prior high and needed to come back to the middle band to show respect but it did not, so it needs to; the middle band, that is also the 20-wk MA, is at 63073 so that would be a downside target and the lower band at 47.5K jutting higher quickly (call it 48K to 55K over the next couple-three weeks).

Bitcoin is extended above its moving average ribbon (price above the 20 above the 50 above the 200) requiring a mean reversion. Even if happy news occurs; maybe another crypto ETF will be announced, and price pops higher for another matching high or a bit higher, the chart is sick. It will likely only right-translate the top by a couple weeks.

Let's check out the other time frames to get a bigger, and tighter, picture. The monthly chart is ugly and points to many months ahead of soggy prices falling ever lower. All the chart indicators are in negative divergence. The bitcoin daily chart is a sideways move. The standard deviation bands are tight and squeezing out a potential move to the downside. The Aroon prints a negative cross. The 2-hour chart is set up for a rise in prices in this time frame.

Thus, some choppy stuff as bitcoin tops out now and begins a multi-week decline. If happy talk occurs creating price buoyancy, it will likely only delay the top by a couple weeks. Simply follow the charts.

The revelation looking at the bitcoin charts (weekly and monthly) this morning, is that bitcoin does not look attractive on an intermediate-term and long-term basis (for the weeks and months ahead).

Keystone does not own any bitcoin and is not playing any of the derivatives long or short currently. If a play is made, it would be to short bitcoin going forward using the ETF's and derivatives. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Morning, 6/17/24, at 5:32 AM EST: Bitcoin 66,176.

Note Added Friday Morning, 6/21/24, at 8:44 AM EST: Bitcoin 63,739.

Note Added Monday Morning, 6/24/24, at 4:03 AM EST: Bitcoin 62,493. There is strong price support at 61,000. The 150-day MA support is 62460. The 200-day MA is 57,571. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's lead to 8's on the way down so a couple closes under 62K would open the door to 58K. The weekly chart indicators all point lower as price drops, weak and bleak, and the multi-week down move is underway. On the daily chart, bitcoin drops but the money flow and histogram is positively diverged and the stochastics are oversold (bullish indications). The RSI is on the verge of oversold sloping down and the MACD heads lower. There are a couple jogs needed to set the indicators up with possie d and create a rally in the daily time frame (down-up-down-up; say 4 days). Remember, trading is playing multi-dimensional chess with the time frames the dimensions. Thus, the daily chart will remain soggy and try to establish support in the 61.0K to 62.0K range as it sets up for a bounce in the daily time frame starting later in the week or next week. That may send price higher to back kiss some failed moving averages above, but then, since the weekly chart remains weak and bleak and in the multi-week down move, bitcoin will roll over again and make lower lows on the weekly basis. You do not have to guess; simply watch the charts. You will look for possie d to set up on the daily so you can call a bottom in the daily time frame. That will play out and then you can call the top with neggie d in the daily time frame. That will begin another big leg lower in the weekly time frame going forward. So sideways chop this week as bitcoin tries to find a footing, then a modest relief rally to 65K-66K early July as the flags are waving and the fireworks blaring. The big test will be 58K-ish. If it loses this support, it is Armageddon for bitcoin. Bitcoin bulls will need to fortify support and hold 58K with all their might, otherwise, the 50K-51K downside target is next and also 40K-48K. The 2-hour chart will also tell you the bottom in the very short-term time frame which should match up with the upcoming bottom on the daily basis. Keystone is currently not playing bitcoin or any cybercurrency derivatives long or short.

Note Added Monday Morning, 6/24/24, at 6:44 AM EST: Bitcoin 61,308.

Note Added Monday Morning, 6/24/24, at 7:33 AM EST: Bitcoin 60,839.

Note Added Monday Afternoon, 6/24/24, at 2:20 PM EST: Bitcoin 60,088.

Note Added Monday Afternoon, 6/24/24, at 3:25 PM EST: Bitcoin 59,917. Whooppsies daisies. The bitcoin boat is taking on water and sinking. It sh*t the bed today. 

Note Added Monday Evening, 6/24/24, at 5:42 PM EST: Bitcoin 59,862. LOD is 58443. It wasted no time to tease the 58K Armageddon level. The 200-day MA is 57560 so price may be gunning for that support and to maintain that level or higher for a few days until the daily chart can set up with possie d and then provide a short relief rally. If 58K fails, it will probably release all Hell and fall through a trap-door. A failure at 58K support for bitcoin would probably mean that something has gone wrong with the US stock market as well. Another One Bites the Dust.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 6/25/24, at 7:30 AM EST: Bitcoin 61,186. The bitcoin bulls are trying to hold the line.

Note Added Monday Morning, 7/8/24, at 5:41 AM EST: Bitcoin lost the 61K support and flushed lower last week, collapsing through the 200-day MA at 58,763. On Saturday, 7/6/24, bitcoin comes up for the back kiss of the 200, and it is successful for bitcoin bears, with price then collapsing down to 54,305 this morning now recovering to 57,387. The low is 53,528 on 7/5/24 so this number is uber important over the coming days. The 50-wk MA is at 47,800. If you bring up the bitcoin weekly chart, you see price dropping from the double-top with the MACD, histogram, stochastics and money flow all weak and bleak. This means there are more lower lows coming for bitcoin on the weekly basis. If you bring up the daily chart, you can see a potential Tweezer Bottom over the last 4 days. The indicators on the daily chart are in positive divergence so a bounce is at hand in the daily time frame and voila, that is what is happening this morning. The MACD line is flat to down so a jog move may be needed still yet where bitcoin drops, say, tomorrow, but then the rally will begin on the daily basis the next day once the MACD is confirmed with possie d. The bounce in the daily time frame will only last a few days, maybe a week or so, and then that weak and bleak posture on the weekly chart will keep sending bitcoin lower on the weekly basis until possie d sets up in that time frame probably not until later this month or early August. There is price support at 50K-53K where congestion occurred in March so price will try to hold there when it falls again on the weekly basis. Note that price teased the top of this support zone at the 53,528 low and bounced on 7/4/24 hinting that the 50K-53K area may provide a bottom on the weekly basis later this month. If the 50K-53K support fails, bitcoin will want to test the 50-wk MA at 47,800.