We need Willie to lead us in a touching rendition of The Party's Overnull as we discuss the two Scamazon charts above. Which turd do you want to discuss first? Let's do the weekly since a multi-week decline has started. AMZN is soggy for the last couple weeks sending RTH lower telling you dolts that the consumer, even the filthy corrupt elite and upper middle class sycophants, the have's that have all the money, are pulling back on their spending.
Keystone draws a cup and handle (C&H) with a purple crayon. He likes purple crayons because they taste the best. The base of the cup is 86-90 and the brim of the cup is 140. That is a difference of 50-54 points so adding that to the brim is an upside target of 190-194 once the breakout occurs last November. Honey, we're home. The C&H is satisfied; close enough for government work.
There is also a 2-leg bull flag in play not shown on the weekly chart since it would turn everything into a bowl of spaghetti. First leg 86 to 140 which is 54 points, then the consolidation phase with a slight downward bias, check, then second leg begins at 125-ish so adding 54 is 179 and that upside target was also achieved by the bulls so the 2-leg bull flag pattern is also satisfied.
The red rising wedge, however, is a bearish pattern proclaiming no more Mr Nice Guy as Alice jams. The AMZN weekly chart also prints a M-top, or double-top, if you prefer. As price squeezed out the higher high, the red lines clearly show universal negative divergence across all chart indicators. It a simple top call forecasting a multi-week slide lower.
Price will likely want to play around at the 20 MA at 177 an excuse for dip-buyers to step in, but they will get squashed like a bug as price descends further targeting the 50 MA at 154 and rising. Note the flat 200 MA at 144 as price support also the C&H brim line at 140 that was never truly back kissed so price needs to come back down and kiss the lady that allowed the rally. The 140-160 area is a good target zone for price over the next few weeks as the neggie d spankdown occurs.
The Aroon green line shows bulls up at 88% everyone bullish Amazon remains bullish proclaiming more new price highs ahead. The Scamazon bears are at 0% comically every AMZN bear has given up and no one believes that Amazon stock will go down in the weekly time frame. You know what happens when everyone is on one side of the boat. Look at that, the boat is starting to wobble.
The ADX is dropping faster than a prom dress on the verge of signaling that the 16-month rally is ending. For Amazon, anything above 30-35 is a strong trend you can see that the party continued for the last year but is now on the verge of falling out of the pink box which means the rally higher is no longer a strong trend higher. In addition, note that despite price making a higher high, the ADX did not. In other words, as price makes a new high telling the world the sky is the limit, the ADX is whispering that the strong trend higher is weakening and about to be completely lost.
The Amazon weekly chart is a piece of crap. Look at that turd. Everything about it is negative. AMZN will trail lower during June on the weekly basis targeting 140-160.
On the AMZN monthly chart, another turd that needs flushed, price comes up for the higher high but the chart indicators are in negative divergence. The strong multi-year trend higher for Amazon ended in 2022 as per the ADX and the stock has not been in a strong trend ever since. Note how for the higher tops in price, the ADX moves lower indicating that the price tops are occurring as the overall trend is weakening on the long-term monthly basis.
The red lines show neggie d for all the chart indicators although the MACD line is trying to create another high a couple months out. The RSI is also level over the last couple months trying to create some buoyancy to keep the turd floating for another couple months. Alas, with the weekly chart now in a weekly downtrend, do not hold your breath.
You can see that AMZN is clearly in serious trouble on both the weekly and monthly basis. If you made boatloads of money over the last many years, git outta Dodge. The Aroon on the monthly chart is like the weekly chart. The green line shows that 100% of the bulls are guaranteeing that AMZN stock will go up and up. The Aroon is a contrary indicator telling you everybody and his bro, including the shoeshine boy, uber driver and doorman, are buying AMZN stock with both fists. In technical language, they are called the sucka's and bag holders. Pause for laughter.
AMZN price will want to revisit the 20 and 50 MA's on the monthly chart at 132-143 going forward which roughly jives with the weekly chart; expand the downside target range to 130-160 over the coming weeks.
Maybe for fun, count the Amazon vans going by your house each hour. See if the vans become more sparce as time goes forward. Humorously, Amazon vans will not be needed as much for packages so maybe the vans will become shuttles riding seniors from the nursing home to the mall?
Keystone does not have a position long or short in AMZN currently. Obviously, you only want to play the short side for the coming weeks and if you have some nice profits, take them.
Let's take a quick look at the daily chart. Double-top. Neggie d creates the multi-day slide. Stochastics oversold so the daily chart is a sideways stumble. We are looking for the ST timing on when to enter short. Bring up a 2-hour chart. That is showing possie d over the last week so best to hold off for a day or few. It will be easy, however, to enter short. Watch the 2-hour chart. It will come back up over the coming days, maybe for a week, and when it tops out with neggie d, that is the entry point for the short trade. It should be in the days ahead. The 2-hour will tell you when so no need to guess.
Considering the morbid charts above, and the Memorial Day services yesterday, it is appropriate to play Taps for Amazon stock going forward on the weekly and long-term basis. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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