AAPL Apple Monthly Chart Receives Neggie D Spankdown; China Is Giving Apple the Bum's Rush

Apple is in the news these days with their new product launch. Some say it is the greatest innovation since sliced bread but others say it is a lot more same-o, same-o. The top in AAPL was an easy call on the monthly chart (think long-term). Same as the previous top at the start of 2022. Keystone called both of them. It is not rocket science.

It is interesting that price rallies this year because the prior top in early 2022 was the whole enchilada. All chart indicators were in negative divergence and the RSI and stochastics were overbot (red lines). There was no other direction to go except down. Typically, price will not come back up again for a higher high once the top is in. Price actually needs to drop a long ways down first and then the chart will have to set up with positive divergence.

A news event can always alter the path forward. Charts can only price-in all known information up to the minute. Once a news bomb hits, traders adjust positions and the charts reset. Usually, the charts will reset in their respective time frames and reassume the prior forecasts, however, bombshell news can alter the path for an extended period.

Such is the case with the AI fervor this year. Everyone ripped off their clothes to participate in the AI orgy buying tech stocks with reckless abandon while drinking Fed wine and smoking Congressional crack. A Big Tech cheerleader coughed and it sounded like he said 'AI' so a flood of buy orders immediately hit the tape for tech stocks. The AI orgy is so obscene it would make Caligula blush. Wasn't 5G supposed to be the game-changer. No, it was 3-D printing. No, it was nanotechnology. No, it was...... it was, and is, just another way for the Wall Street insiders to make dough. Boy, you people are dumb.

The AI orgy this year creates a stiff upside thrust that climaxes into another neggie d top and spankdown (maroon lines). Apple is toast. Analysts can say it is the greatest stock ever, and every institution can continue owning it, but they are wrong. The monthly chart says a long-term neggie d spankdown has started. The upper band is violated so the middle band at 160 is on the table as well as the lower band at 123.

The Aroon red line shows that the bears are coming to life and about 2 of every 3 bears believe that the AAPL downside has legs. A couple months ago, all the bears believed Apple stock would continue going up forever. The bulls remain committed. Nearly 100% of the Apple bulls believe that the stock will continue higher forever (Aroon green line). This is the perfect set-up for all of them to get punched in the face. Trading is fun. It makes you laugh.

The ADX shows that the strong trend higher is almost officially over. The rally higher in 2014/2015 was a strong trend but it disappeared during 2016 and early 2017. The upside in AAPL was then a strong trend in late 2017, all of 2018, and early 2019 when it ended. The strong trend higher was verified again starting in the back-half of 2020 (COVID-19 pandemic everything went remote) running through today. This is another metric telling you that Apple stock is toast going forward. The ramifications to the overall stock market are bigtime. The ADX does not show that any down moves were strong trends over the last decade because the stock always refused to go down to ever establish an ongoing down move.

Let's get into a little bit of Divergence Trading 401. Are you ready? When the rally occurred this year, it should have started due to possie d to give it legitimacy. It did not. You can see that AAPL prints the lower low at the start of this year. The RSI, histo and stochastics are positively diverged (sloping higher as price drops lower; bullish) but the MACD line and money flow remain weak and bleak wanting another low in price after a rally occurs. This behavior is ominous for Apple because the monthly chart is telling you that it wants to see price down to 120-130 again and even lower.

To pile on Sapple more, China is starting to hassle Apple production facilities. Of course they are. This signals that the communists have stolen every bit of technology from Apple that they want or think they can steal. Now that the technology robbery is hitting the law of diminishing returns, the CCP dirtbags will increase the harassment of Apple. The communists squeezed every bit of apple juice out of the tech behemoth and now throws it into the trashcan.

CEO Cook did not fall off the turnip, er apple, truck yesterday. He is a smart cookie and has been trying to diversify his footprint from China to Vietnam, India and elsewhere. It may be occurring too slow or is too little too late. India will not be a repeat of China. India is more restrictive and is going to not let Apple dominate the way it did in China. The communists only permitted Apple and Cook to make the gains in China because they needed to steal the technology. There was no other reason. Do you understand this or are you dumb?

Now that the CCP has stolen everything they can from Apple, they do not need it anymore. This is the same modus operandi that started in the 1970's with the textile industries. The US South had factories going 24/7 decades ago churning out beautiful clothes, rugs, draperies; the products were superior quality and employed tens of thousands of workers. Once the textile factories were moved to China, however, that ended. The US factories closed down creating urban and suburban blight across the southern states. This is the reason the middle class ended in America.

One by one, US industries were sold to China and along with that, America's soul. The steel technology was stolen so US steel companies were muscled out of China. Same with cars, chemicals and all industries. Apple's smartphone and other technologies are the latest victim. Tesla will be next. China will start to find violations at Apple facilities and start forcing multi-day factory shutdowns. Management personnel will be accused of breaking laws. Of course, at some point forward, either implicitly, or done in a shadow way, Chinese citizens will be told it is unwise to buy an Apple phone and they should buy from a Chinese manufacturer instead.

Apple will suffer in China and what typically happens is they will pack up and leave. The iPhone is 52% of Apple sales so it is the product that controls AAPL stock price. Numbers fluctuate but about 20% of iPhone sales are in China. That will be big trouble for AAPL stock if China sales go bye-bye.

Apple cheerleaders will debunk such nonsense and negative talk proclaiming that Sapple employs tens of thousands of workers in China, a few hundred thousand jobs are dependent on Apple inside the commie state, and the CCP would never jeopardize these jobs. Of course they will not. That is why as Apple is muscled and harassed out of China, the Chinese smartphone manufacturers will takeover the factories and absorb the workers.

In addition to the China woes, Americans and others are holding on to their smartphones longer. There is no reason to buy a new one if the old one works fine and improvements are only cosmetic or inconsequential at this stage of the life cycle.

Elon Musk at Tesla better be taking notes because what the CCP is and will do to Apple is what will be done to him and Tesla next. The CCP is probably getting close to having stolen all the Tesla robot technology they will use in their own plants.

All that said, bring up an Apple daily chart. You can see the chart indicators are setting up with positive divergence but not yet. Price needs to put in the lower low for a divergence to exist but AAPL would be expected to pop higher from, say, 170-171 anytime over the next couple days and begin a multi-day rally.

The Apple weekly and monthly chart above remain bearish wanting lower lows in both their time frames. Thus, the rally coming in Apple on the daily basis, that may last a few days or week or two, would be an opportunity to take profits if long and get outta Dodge, and/or, go short AAPL if an intermediate term trader, since the weekly and monthly time frames point to lower prices ahead. Keystone does not hold AAPL long or short currently.

Any day forward, China (the CCP) will probably say that a Foxconn (Hon Hai) plant assembling Apple products is in violation of safety codes. Let the festivities begin. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/19/23, Tuesday Evening, at 6:41 PM EST: AAPL is recovering at 179.10. CNBC publishes an article titled, "Channel Checks in China Suggest iPhone Orders Will Be Disappointing, Says Barclays." The festivities have begun.

Note Added 9/20/23, Wednesday Morning, at 10:49 AM EST: Apple and Goldman Sachs ditch a joint venture that was supposed to provide a trading platform for stocks. CEO Cook is interviewed on CBS News about Apple's status in China and he sounds clueless. Americans sold their souls, kissing commie *ss, just to stuff money in their greedy pockets. Chinese people are being riled up and are voicing unhappiness with Apple because an employee looks like 'Fu Manchu' and they complain it is done on purpose to foster racism (obviously, if you know how sick communist China operates, the filthy CCP is behind this fabricated negativity directed at Apple). The festivities are underway.

Note Added 9/20/23, Wednesday Evening, at 7:10 PM EST: The Apple is turning brown collapsing today to close near today's low at 175.49.

Note Added 9/21/23, Thursday Morning, at 8:41 AM EST: AAPL 173.95.

Note Added 9/22/23, Friday Morning, at 8:22 AM EST: Apple's iPhone15 is on sale in 40 countries today. There are jackasses waiting in lines but not like past years. Many of the people in line are resellers. Since supplies may be tight in the first few weeks, these people turn around and resell the iPhones at a profit. Others are waiting in line getting paid by wealthy individuals to pick up a phone or two. A Beijing, China, store is highlighted by a CNBC story that has a couple hundred folks in line. Several people in line say they are there because the other top smartphones in China, such as Huawei, are sold out. Chinese folks do not want to be seen buying an Apple phone and if so, they make excuses because they fear backlash from the filthy communist dirtbag CCP government that controls China (that wants them to buy domestic). There are about 5K Apple stores in China and 25K phones were sold in the first 10 minutes so on average, about 5 phones were sold per store during the first 10 minutes. The Apple hype is just not what it used to be years ago. Most folks are not going to spend over a grand on a phone if they are holding basically the same phone in their hand that works fine. France halts the sale of the iPhone12 due to radiation concerns. News stories are surfacing that the engineers at Apple could not meet the recent goals for the new iPhones. Sounds like they took a bigger bite of the Apple than they could chew.

Note Added 9/23/23, Saturday: AAPL 174.79. Apple trades flat this week trying to hold the 174-175 price support level. The AAPL weekly chart is ugly with the MACD, stochastics and money flow weak and bleak wanting to see more lows in AAPL in the weeks ahead. CEO Cook shows up at a New York Apple store to welcome customers buying the new iPhone15. Cook greets folks holding his hands in a prayer pose. He is probably praying that they buy new phones. The knives are out at Cupertino. Apple engineers are criticized for not being able to meet all the goals of the new iPhone. iPhone sales better hold up or Cook will have to cook the books to make his numbers.

Note Added 9/26/23, Tuesday: Apple CEO Cook says efforts are tripled to boost production and sales of iPhones and other Apple products in India. Cook sees the Chinese writing on the wall so he has the beggin' pads on his knees asking PM Modi for some morsels.

Note Added 9/28/23, Thursday: AAPL drops to 169 now at 170. Apple printed a high at 198 on 7/19/23 and now, only 9 weeks later, collapses to 169, a -15% crash in a correction perhaps headed towards a -20% bear market. Apple consumers are complaining that the new iPhone15 is running much too hot. Apple is trying to hush the naysayers on this excessive heat issue saying the unit is becoming hot due to the setting-up process. This issue has occurred with other phones and is typically remedied with a software update.

Note Added 9/29/23, Friday: The communists slap CEO Cook around a bit more, like a cat playing with a ball of string, saying limits and restrictions will be placed on the Apple app store offerings in red China. Obviously, China is giving Apple the bum's rush, kicking them out the back door, while telling Chinese folks to buy Huawei. The communists likely stole all the information that was available from the Apple factories and assembly facilities so scumbag Dictator Xi and the filthy CCP (the 90 million dirtbags in the communist party control the 1.4 billion Chinese folks) are tossing what's left of the brown Apple core into the trash can. It lands in some uneaten General Tso's chicken. The CCP will step up the harassment of Apple going forward. When you lie in bed with communists and sell your soul to the murdering Xi, do not be surprised if he slits your throat in the middle of the night. Never trust a communist. Even though it was obvious in the 1970's and 1980's, as trade was opened with China, that America's textile industry would be destroyed, the greedy US politicians and corporate executives did not care. All they could see is money and greed and it is the same decades later. Apple sold its soul for Chinese customers but is now no longer of any use to the commies. The festivities continue.

Note Added 10/4/23, Wednesday: Communist China (CCP) is giving McCormick the bum's rush. The spice maker reports weak China sales. The communists must have stole all the spice-making technology from McCormick so Xi and his henchmen no longer need it. MKC crashes -30% over the last 2 months. McCormick is likely receiving the bum's rush out of China just like Apple and just like Tesla will receive. Once the commies steal everything they need, they no longer need you.

Note Added 10/5/23, Thursday: KeyBanc says Apple sales growth is slowing. AAPL sits at 174.