NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Battle at 40-Wk MA at 15160 for Cyclical Stock Market Control

The stage is set which will tell you the path forward for the US stock market into the summer and beyond. Three key metrics identify and confirm a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear; the NYA 40-week MA cross, the SPX 12-month MA cross and the slope of the SPX 150-day MA. All three are in a choppy sloppy pattern this year. 2022 was a cyclical bear market while the last few months are sideways chop. The wink has to be given to the cyclical bear market continuing until proven otherwise.

For the NYA, price remains well off the all-time top above 17K, dropping to a 13K handle and now at 15K-ish with a critical bounce or die decision at the 40-wk MA at 15160 on tap. It is not just a run of the mill test of a moving average. This one has huge ramifications for the stock market going forward.

If NYA fails at 15160 over the coming days and trends lower, there will be Hell to pay. The stock market will go south in a hurry with carnage since the cyclical bear market pattern will be confirmed for nearly 1-1/2 years. If NYA fails, watch the SPX 12-mth MA at 3965-3972 because if this level fails, a stock market Armageddon will begin.

If NYA bounces from here or tests the 15160 support and bounces, that is good news for bulls and means that stocks will likely remain buoyant for a few more weeks. If this occurs, look for the slope of the SPX 150-day MA to create a sustainable and steady uptrend which will confirm that a cyclical bull market is in play.

The utilities are in failure mode which creates a crash profile ahead for the US stock market beginning at anytime forward within the next few weeks. Bulls must push UTIL above 960.60 as fast as possible, otherwise, the situation will become ugly. If utes trend lower and lower, it tells you to get completely out of long positions in the stock market because the crash is coming. Of course, the failure at NYA 15160 will provide a warning signal. Are you ready for fun? The NYA chart will tell you what is coming. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:20 AM EST: Also watch volatility that has been sleeping. It is waking-up. Bears need VIX above 19.85 which will signal stock market selling ahead. VIX is trading now in real-time at 19.20. Okay, everyone now has their homework and knows what to watch.

Note Added Friday Morning, 5/5/23, at 4:47 AM EST: Happy Cinco de Mayo a great time for the cockroach song La Cucaracha and joyous Mariachi band activities. NYA sh*t the bed yesterday losing 15160 now at 15118 which places the US stock market firmly in the cyclical bear camp a major failure. Bulls must push NYA back above 15160 pronto or they face pain and misery ahead.

Note Added Saturday, 5/6/23: The NYA recovers back above 15160. The bounce or die decision is a bounce, at least for now. Friday's full moon helps send stocks higher.