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Friday, February 7, 2020
CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts Continue Signaling Significant Stock Market Top
The PBOC rice wine, Fed whiskey, BOJ sake and ECB champagne are flowing like water with inebriated traders buying any stock with a heartbeat. The four central bank horseman of the Apocalypse have destroyed all price discovery as well as the business cycles over the last 11 years. The central banks have created the longest stock market rally in history. The major indexes such as the SPX (S&P 500; the US stock market), INDU (DJIA; Dow Industrials; Dirty Thirty; the blue chip index the public is familiar with and the index with long-term data), COMPQ (Nasdaq Composite; tech stocks) and NDX (Nazzy 100; tech stocks focus on FAANG stocks) are at all-time record highs. The central bankers are the market. Do you understand this or are you stupid?
The Federal Reserve and other global central banker partners in crime collude daily to make sure the global stock markets are always kept buoyant to protect the wealthy elite class that own huge stock portfolios. Comically, the insiders (executives) are selling their own stock at a record pace. This week there are five shares being sold by company executives compared to one share purchased. Such is crony capitalism. Let Ma and Pa Kettle, the sucka's, hold the bag. This is the American way.
The brown circle shows where the shoeshine boy started telling all his customers to go triple-leveraged long the stock market.
The pink circle is where the taxi cab driver said he is buying AAPL stock with his entire paycheck every other week even though he barely has enough money for food.
The orange circle is where Aunt Agatha pulled the life savings of all the women at the local Ladies Guild into one big pile and purchased AMZN stock like the nice young gentlemen in the suit and tie on television advised. The blue-haired gal's are celebrating their great fortune ahead and are a bit tipsy from Nellie spiking the tea.
The blue circle shows where Timmy Tech, that works for a large software company, started buying large amounts of shares in the FAANG stocks. At the water cooler, Timmy bragged to pretty Emily, the attractive administrative assistant, placing himself in the same company as Jesse Livermore. His braggadocio did not work since he had to explain who Livermore was; Emily quickly returned to the monthly status reports she thought were more interesting than Timmy.
The purple circle is where Uncle Frank, a timid and careful gentlemen, decided he could no longer watch everyone make money in the stock market while he sat in cash. Frank's fear of missing out (FOMO) causes him to pull all his money from the local bank branch, even several hundred dollars he had stashed in a Maxwell House coffee can in the basement, and place all of it in the double-leveraged long ETF's. He said he does not know what he is doing but everyone else is making money in these tickers so he plans to as well. He receives hot tips from coworkers that brag that they are very knowledgeable on the stock market.
The red circle is where Cousin Flora, a sweetheart of a girl although unable to attract a mate as yet due to her facial twitch, decided to take her life savings and invest in the stock market. Everyone on television says records are broken every day and Flora does not want to miss out. Further, since Flora is trying to play catch-up for her retirement, she acquires a home equity line and uses all that money to buy FB and NFLX stock. Flora is at the local pub telling everyone that she plans to buy a larger house this summer once her stocks double. She is relieved and relaxed that she never has to worry about money again.
The complacency, euphoria and fearlessness is off-the-charts. The put/calls are at multi-month and multi-year lows verifying the complacency. Ditto the subdued VIX. The stock market will top out any hour, any day forward. Note that the 21-day MA line has already bottomed (red boxes) which signals that the top should already be in. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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