Apple analysts say channel checks show healthy and robust buying of iPhones this holiday season. AAPL is a moon shot this year as CEO Cook and King Donny join hands skipping joyously across the Whitehouse lawn cheerleading technology, jobs, markets, apple pie and the future.
The rally from 145 to 280 is 135 bigtime points, a wild +93% gain in one year's time; a double. Investors are eating what Cook is cooking. It seems odd considering so many eggs are in the China and India baskets. With the ongoing US-China trade war, it is surprising that the Chinese folks have not shunned Apple iPhones, or, maybe the data has not yet shown this. The folks in India are thrifty so Apple is having trouble making inroads there. Nonetheless, analysts and Apple itself say there is nothing but blue skies and rainbows ahead.
The blue upward-sloping channel is parabolic; the wealthy class dances with glee. AAPL is at the record high at 281-ish. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's so a close or two above 280 opens the door to 320. The breach of 278 opens the door to 282. The RSI, stoch's and money flow are overbot agreeable to a selloff ahead.
The chart is setting up with neggie d (red lines) but not yet. As price makes new highs, the RSI squeezes out a tinier high and the MACD line clearly continues sloping higher, so there is a little more upside juice for the SPX available. The RSI may create a jog move down one week and up one week to matching highs, and ditto for the MACD after that. The chart data is weekly so the candlestick can change quite a bit by week-end. Thus, AAPL should top out in 2 to 4 weeks, say late December early January, on the weekly basis.
Price violated the upper band (pink) so the middle band at 238, and rising, is on the table as well as the lower band at 185. Price is extended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion lower. The Aroon green line is at one hundo with nowhere to go but down. The red line is oversold with nowhere to go but up. Both signals are bearish going forward. Watch for the negative cross.
The ADX is a bigtime 53. Strike up the band since AAPL is in a confirmed strong uptrend. Apple has momentum and you always have to think long and hard about any short position against a momo ticker. Investors believe in Apple down to their core. Warren Buffett, who shunned technology stocks for decades saying he does not understand them, is now all-in with AAPL stock professing party time ahead; he must now understand tech stocks.
With the wild upside two-bagger thrust move this year, the MACD line on the monthly chart slopes upwards to new highs. As has been highlighted the last few months, the wait continues for the Apple monthly chart to top out with neggie d which will likely be a multi-year high. It remains very close but this parabolic price move will extend the top a month or two. The monthly chart will want price to come back up again to current levels after a pullback.
The weekly chart above says the top is in about 2 to 4 weeks forward (as soon as the RSI and MACD line are neggie d), and a multi-week selloff will follow, say during January into early February. However, due to the long and strong MACD line on the AAPL monthly chart, price should come back up again with a multi-week rally, say in February, and that will likely be the multi-month and multi-year top for mighty Apple. Also, keep in mind, that the monthly candlestick is a work in progress since December continues playing out; that MACD line on the monthly chart may drop back down if sogginess occurs in the AAPL price and that would bring Apple's multi-month and multi-year top directly to your front doorstep.
Thus, if you want to go long AAPL, don't. There is not much room to play with up top. AAPL may bounce in this 280-320 range for a week or two to end the year placing its top. Look at shorting it in early January if you are a risk-taker. Once it rolls over and drops, say in January, it will likely venture to 250-ish to greet the 20-week and middle band coming up, then bounce back up as per the monthly chart. Then AAPL likely places its long term top in that 280-320 zone again say in late January or February and it is lights out. Keystone does not hold any long or short in AAPL right now but will consider a short in early January depending on chart above.
What is funny about all this is that Joe Sixpack and Amy Dogooder are buying shares of AAPL for their youngsters for a Christmas or holiday gift thinking it is a good investment. These noble folks, with lofty dreams and aspirations, only serve as the bag-holding sucka's going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.