SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; M Top; Stock Market Pushed To and Fro by US-China Trade War Tweets and Federal Reserve Shenanigans

The SPX is chopping around all over the creation on the US-China trade war drama and comments from the Federal Reserve and other global central bankers. Fed Chairman Powell is a skilled magician announcing more QE (quantitative easing) yesterday but at the same time telling everyone it is not QE; now you see it now you don't, nothing up my sleeves. What a sick financial world it is with markets now trading minute by minute on tweets and confusing statements from eggheads. This must be how crony capitalism ends.

The S&P 500 was perched on support at the 50-day MA at 2938 and had to make a bounce or die decision. It died so the 50 becomes resistance. Price fell through the 100-day MA at 2928 and then the 150-day MA at 2908 these levels now serving as resistance. The 200-day MA support at 2846 has not been touched since the late-May early-June bottom.

The pink 150-day MA is important since the SPX began the summer rally from this moving average, then retested it in August, it held, price bounces again in September, and now the S&P 500 continues to battle at the 150. The slope of the 150 tells you if a ticker is in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market pattern. The 150 is sloping slightly higher so the cyclical bull market remains in play. Bulls are okay as long as the 150 keeps sloping higher even if it is barely sloping higher. Bears win for the weeks and months ahead if the 150 flattens and starts sloping downwards. Note the M-Top, or double-top, pattern in the chart above.

The NYA fell through its 40-week MA a critical market signal that ushers in a cyclical bear market for stocks. This metric requires close monitoring in the days and couple weeks ahead.

Theh SPX stabbed down through the lower standard deviation band 5 days ago, and popped, but now slumps back below again. The middle band and 20-day MA at 2970, and dropping, is on the table. The 20-week MA resistance is 2935. The 10-month MA is at 2874; this is an important level which is an initial signal that the stock market is about to seriously fall apart. If 2874 fails, "Danger Will Robinson. Danger." The 12-month MA at 2833 is the cliff edge. If 2833 fails, stocks may go into free fall; a crash scenario would be on the table.

The VIX is at 20.28 far above the critical bull-bear line at the 200-day MA at 16.38 so the bears are in firm control of the stock market. The VIX prints a 20-handle but is currently at 19.23 at 6:20 AM EST Wednesday morning, 10/9/19. S&P futures are up +22 and were actually a few points higher a short time ago. China says they are open to a partial trade deal despite this week's circus of events and tit-for-tat actions. S&P futures catapult higher immediately. Markets are a joke.

Tariffs are set to escalate next Tuesday. The footnote in the China announcement is that they do not want to see a further escalation in tariffs. Thus, a deal appears contingent on President Trump not increasing the tariffs in six days. Do you think that will happen? China says they will buy more agricultural products. Pause for laughter. They have been saying this for the last two years of the trade war and their offers are only to return to the pre-trade war levels. Nonetheless, the president is quick to tout the purchases of ag products to try and keep the farmers, and his base of supporters, on his side. "Soybean Donny" wants reelected next November (the US presidential election is only 55 weeks away). Decades of crony capitalism results in corrupt demopublican and republocrat politicians; two sides of the same corrupt coin.

Today is Yom Kippur so it appears the ole Wall Street adage, "Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur," is working out so far. The big push higher in futures occurs right on cue. The bond market is closed on Monday. Today is the big 10-year auction that will require attention. Also the JOLTS Report and the FOMC Minutes this afternoon. Tomorrow is the CPI and 30-year bond auction and Friday is the important Consumer Sentiment. Next week is OpEx and stocks are typically bullish from a Tuesday low to a Wednesday high so seasonality favors the bulls in the coming days and next week into Thursday-ish which interesting is the uber important Housing Starts data (one wonders if a bombshell drops on 10/17/19 blowing a hole in the housing market?).

Stock market bears need utilities to begin trending lower if they want to create sick markets into year-end. The utes have gone parabolic and are only pulling back this week with the broad market. If utes remain buoyant, the stock market will recover and the bulls may hold the bears at bay into year-end. If the utilities begin trending lower here forward, it will be a very serious stock market warning signal that we are beginning to slip down the rabbit hole into serious ugliness.

The SPX begins at 2893. The chart indicators are bumping sideways, not showing their hand, due to the conflicting news bites that occur every couple hours. If a 22-point pop is received for the cash index, that would place the SPX at 2915 after the opening bell. Watch the 150-day MA at 2908 like a hawk. It would be very negative for stocks if it held as resistance. If the bulls can punch up through, the 100-day MA at 2928 will serve as overhead resistance. Bears need to push the SPX below 2874 since this will begin an accelerated move lower in equities. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 10/10/19, at 7:56 AM EST: The SPX ran higher yesterday to tap on the 100-day MA at 2928-2929 and was spanked down. The LOD was at the 150-day MA at 2907-2908 and price bounced. Thus, bulls win big above 2929 while bears win big below 2907 and everything in between is noise from the ongoing US-China trade talks and global central banker comments. S&P futures are down -7 with the VIX at 19.52.