TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart

Remember 2 or 3 weeks ago, Keystone posted the 10-year yield chart which ws setting up with positive divergence but the MACD line was weak and bleak. Thus, yield likely needed 2 or 3 weeks to explore the low yield numbers to set up possie d with the MACD. This occurs and the bottom is in for the 10-year yield at 1.43%-ish. The possie d rocket fuel launches yield higher off the bottom.

The falling green wedge is bullish. The oversold RSI and stochastics are bullish. Ditto the oversold ROC. Yield violated the lower band so the middle band at 1.99%, and falling sharply, is in play. There are a couple of juicy gap fills that will be needed at some point forward at 1.72%-ish and 1.80%-ish. Yield is far below its moving averages and desperately needs a mean reversion higher. All these parameters point to the bounce and it should last for a few weeks say this month perhaps into the first week of October.

Then, as previously mentioned, yields will likely roll over lower again after this few-week move higher. If you bring up the monthly chart you can see the weak and bleak MACD line although RSI, stochastics and ROC are possie d. This tells you that yield likely wants to come back down for another test of the lows at 1.43%-ish on the monthly basis. Marrying that with the weekly chart hints that yields will likely sneak higher, that 1.72%-1.74% gap-fill is a near-term target, for this month, but then roll back over lower to satisfy the weak and bleak MACD on the monthly.

Also interesting, is that once the MACD bottoms and positively diverges on the monthly chart, which is likely in the October-December time frame, that tells you the long-term low in yields will be in and the three-decade bond rally (higher note and bond prices, lower yields) has ran its course. It will be epic market history. Just think, all loans and interest payments will increase for individuals and companies from that point forward.

That means yields will likely float higher month after month year after year starting in 2020. Of course we will have to watch the charts and see if they skew off this path in any manner. The key is when the MACD turns possie d on the monthy; that is the final stake in the heart of the 30-year-plus bull bond market (higher prices, lower yields, deflation vibe) and the new bear bond market will begin (lower prices, higher yields, inflation vibe).

The 10-year yield likely rallies for a few weeks say during September then rolls back over to the down side during October to retest the lows, this may linger into November as the 10-year seeks a long-term multi-month and multi-year bottom likely printing in Q4. Of course the Federal Reserve and other central bankers may have a different plan in store for the 10-year yield. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 9/10/19: The 10-year yield drives higher to 1.72% tagging 1.73%. Yield filled that gap mentioned above. It was low-hanging fruit.