NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; NYA Teasing 40-Week MA Support Which Would Usher in Cyclical Bear Market

One of Keystone's key market signals is the 40-week MA on the NYA that determines the stock market's cyclical pattern ahead. Of course if NYA is above the 40-week, the bulls have their chests puffed out and all is rosy in the stock market. When the NYA drops below the 40-week MA, the bears are biting off chunks of bull flesh.

The NYA failed at the 40-week moving average last week ushering in a cyclical (weeks and months ahead) bear market but the bulls managed to push price back above the 40 maintaining the cyclical bull market, at least for now.

If the NYA loses the 40-week MA at 12532, the stock market is in a heap of trouble and will begin falling apart. The NYA begins the week of 8/12/19 at 12748 which is 216 points above the Armageddon line. Bears would need a -1.6% drop in the NYSE Composite to usher in a negative financial world ahead. US futures are down about -0.7% across the board with the VIX at the 19.91 palindrome three hours before the opening bell for the Monday regular trading session. That would take the bears halfway to their goal.

Price receives the spankdown due to the negative divergence (red lines), overbot conditions, rising wedge pattern and upper band violation. Note how price retreats to the middle band, which is also the 20 MA, and then travels to and violates the lower band at 12420. A bounce was in order, which occurs, and nearly takes price back to the middle band again.

The RSI is at 49% slipping into bear market territory below 50%. The MACD negative cross occurs and stochastics are looking weak and bleak. Ditto money flow that prints a new low going back to the beginning of the year.

The ADX shows a strong trend higher that petered out in mid-2018 (pink box). The Fall 2018 stock market crash occurs, the 40-week MA fails, and equities go into free fall. The ADX shows that this negative behavior was developing into a strong trend that would linger but as usual, the corrupt global central bankers step in to save the day in January protecting the wealthy elite class (that own large stock portfolios).

The Fed, ECB, BOJ and other global central bankers coordinated continuous jaw-boning and promises of easy money forever starting 1/3/19 when the stock market was about to crash. This is the way the crony capitalism system functions. Interestingly, as stocks recover, and move back above the 40-week MA ushering in the cyclical bull market ahead, the ADX trends lower!! The ADX firmly tells you that the move higher this year in equities is NOT a strong trend higher.

The move higher this year in equities is central banker driven. The world remains awash in liquidity and the central banks just added another foot of cash on top of the piles of cash already laying on the ground everywhere. That money has to go somewhere and folks pick it up and buy real estate, stocks, bonds antique cars, art, vineyards, all kinds of stuff, inflating asset prices in all classes; the bubble of all bubbles.

Watch the NYA 40-week MA cross going forward. Big trouble is waiting for anyone long the stock market if the 40 fails. Bulls will continue drinking Fed wine, ECB champagne and BOJ sake and buying stocks with reckless abandon as long as the NYA remains above the 40-week MA. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning 8/15/19 at 7:25 AM EST: Yesterday was market carnage. Futures are flat to negative this morning awaiting a barrage of data. Interstingly, the full moon peaks at 8:29 AM EST just as Retail Sales and other data hit the tape. Stocks are usually bullish moving through the full moon each month but all bets are off in this current crazy atmosphere. The NYA lost the 40-week MA at 12528 ushering in serious market negativity. The stock market has fallen into a cyclical bear market. Every day the NYA remains below 12528 is another nail in the bull coffin for months and perhaps a year or two ahead. Bulls must regain 12528 or they are toast. Another very important Keystone market signal, probably the most important, is the SPX 12-month MA cross. The 12-month is at 2806. If SPX 2806 fails, it is over for the stock market that may quickly descend into a crash scenario. The bulls will live to fight another day if they can hold the line at SPX 2806. Use NYA 12528 and SPX 2806 as your market direction guides ahead. One of them will flinch and tell you the true path ahead for equities. Housing Starts are critical tomorrow morning. Remember, Keystone proclaims that a housing recession began on 7/17/19 one month ago.