TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield 2-Hour Chart; Oversold; Falling Wedge; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violation

The Treasury and global yields have been falling like stones as investors worry about an economic slowdown and seek perceived safety. As traders gobble-up notes and bonds, the prices rise and yields drop as the 2-hour chart for the 10-year shows above. The tight bands (pink arrows) squeeze out a big move and this one is lower creating the collapse in yields over the last week.

Yield gapped-down through the blue lines so the 10-year is currently on an island below 2.47%. If yield comes up to 2.47%, then immediately gaps-up jumping to 2.50% and higher, that would be an island reversal pattern. Otherwise, yield may simply meander higher and fill the gap at 2.47%-2.50%.

The purple lines show the falling wedge, oversold conditions and positive divergence all conspiring to bounce the yield higher (remember prices move opposite so lower prices and higher yields are expected). And voila, the orange dot shows the 10-year yield at 2.453% as this is typed at 8:24 AM EST Tuesday, 3/26/19. Whoops. Check that. The screen shows 2.444% now.

So yield will likely run up to the 2.70% and then pause and decide whether it wants to jump the gap higher, fill the gap, or receive a smackdown. Yield will want to seek that middle band, also the 20 MA, at 2.52% and dropping. The middle band may come down to form a confluence at 2.70% just as yield comes up to the same number; and then yield decides to bounce, or die. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:31 AM EST: The 10-year yield is at 2.44% after the Housing Starts data and Permits lay an egg. Starts collapse more than -8.7%; and this is springtime! S&P +13. VIX 15.65. USD 96.58. Euro 1.1296. Treasury yields are; 3-month 2.47%, 2-year 2.28%, 5-year 2.22%, 10-year 2.44%, 30-year 2.90%. The 2-10 spread is 16.1 basis points. The 3-month-10 spread is inverted at negative -2 bips. The 3-mth-2 spread is inverted at -19 bips. The 3-mth-5 is inverted at -25 bips. The 2-5 spread is inverted at -6 bips. The 5-30 spread is 68 bips. All yields are under 3% and nearly under 2.90%. Lower yields and lower stock prices are a deflationary and disinflationary vibe. Higher yields and higher stock prices are an inflationary vibe.