Keystone's Evening Nightcap 11/6/12; Presidential Election Results

The circus is in full regalia right now, the Superbowl of politics has begun. Election returns begin within the hour at 7 PM EST.  Markets ended the day on a happy note as all returned home to watch the results.  Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and New Hampshire will tell a lot right away.  Romney needs to win Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, otherwise, he had better start writing a concession speech.  If Romney makes it thru that gauntlet the Pennsylvania and Ohio battlegrounds are next.  Virginia polls close at 7 PM. This will be the first major result to watch.  Pennsylvania and New Hampshipre are at 8 PM. The turnout was strong today so that may favor Romney, but, the truth is no one knows. Virginia will kick it all off. The tension mounts.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 7:02 PM:  The race in Virginia is too close to call, in fact it is so close that a leader cannot even be named.  Mama Mia. It may be a long  night.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 7:41 PM:  Oy vey! Now there are three key States, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio all too close to call. The evening is off to an interesting start.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 8:37 PM:  None of the key battleground States have been declared as yet, all are too close to call; Virginia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida.  Florida and Virginia should have perhaps went for Romney already so that may hint at some trouble for Romney. We wait.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 9:05 PM:  Michigan is called for Obama but no surprise there since the government bot the vote with the auto bailout. The wait continues for the battleground states.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 9:25 PM:  Obama wins Keystone's Keystone State of Pennsylvania.  Also Wisconsin which is Ryan's home state, so the veep pick did not help.  It looks very good for Obama and bleak for Romney now.  Florida and/or Ohio would likely seal the deal for Obama.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 9:52 PM:  Romney must run the table now with Virginia, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, any loss, and it is over. New Hampshire goes with Obama.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 10:05 PM:  Futures are plummeting, sniffing out an Obama win. The air is going out of Romney's sails.  Dow Industrials are down -110 and S&P's down -14.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 10:46 PM:  The drama continues but Romney has one foot in the grave. Romney must run the table.  Any loss in Virginia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina or Colorado and it will be officially over for Romney. He is throwing the Hail Mary pass right now. The 10-year yield is 1.68%.  Euro is 1.2840 moving higher. The yen is strengthening so the dollar/yen pair is down, dollar down, euro up, and precious metals slightly up, but the futures remain down. Dow -83. S&P's -11.  Nasdaq -16.

Note Added 11/6/12 at 3:44 AM:  President Obama wins re-election.  Florida remains up in the air but Romney conceded the election before midnight. The futures corrected back to the flat line, the Dow is up 11 and the S&P's are up two. The dollar is weakening as would be expected since the vote favors more stimulus and easy government money. Chairman Bernanke's job is safe. Dollar up means euro down. The euro is 1.2847 well above the sub 1.28 level only a few hours ago.  Dollar/yen moves lower with Japan equities selling off.  The weak dollar pops commodities and copper, as well as gold, silver and precious metals.  Oil, however, is lower.  Also, the 10-year Treasury yield remains flat under 1.70% so a large push from notes and bonds to stocks is not occurring. The country decides to forge ahead with the status quo, everything is pretty much the same as it was yesterday. The country remains polarized. The House remain in republican control with the Senate and Presidency under democratic control. The two-party system remains the ultimate problem.