Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 7/17/12

CPI data hits at 8:30 AM. TIC data at 9 AM will highlight foreign investment. Industrial Production is at 9:15 AM. Housing Market Index is 10 AM as well as Chairman Bernanke, so the information is coming in waves this morning. Watch for a market pivot point at 10 AM or later once markets hear, or do not hear, those three sweet words that all long traders long to hear, 'more quantitative easing'. The futures are buoyant overnight as traders expect Bernanke to at least deliver the intent to deliver a pony in the near future. The dollar weakens and copper, commodities and equities markets catapult higher, this is what is in place since yesterday after lunch time. There will be huge disappointment in markets if Bernanke does not hint that QE is on the table and likely within the next six weeks.

JJC (copper) and CRB (commodities) moved higher yesterday which provided the additional upside but the market were held in check by the NYA not wanting to move back above 7748.  For today, the markets will move higher if NYA 7748 is taken out to the upside.  If Bernanke disappoints, the dollar will strengthen, and copper, commodities and equities will all trail lower.  Watch JJC 44.20 and CRB 293.80.  Heavy earnings hitters today include GS, which should release shortly, INTC, JNJ and KO.  Railroad earnings, a key indicator of global economic health, are also on tap.

For the SPX today, starting at 1354, the bulls need only three points, to push above 1357, and another upside acceleration will occur.  The 1358-1360 resistance gauntlet will likely give way allowing the SPX to jump to the 1366 R in quick order.  The bears need to push seven points lower to drop under 1348.50 to ignite a downside acceleration.  A move thru 1350-1356 is sideways action today. Futures are up about four as this missive is typed which would place the bulls in the drivers seat to start the day. Considering the GS earnings hitting at any time, and the wave of data coming, as well as Bernanke, the early trade today should prove quite dramatic, then likely settle in as the day proceeds.