Keystone's June Seasonality

June is typically a flatish month, up only +0.2% on average.  June is the end of Q2, and also the end of H1 for 2011.  Company preannouncements occur during June so any companies in danger of missing earnings will have to go to the confessional this month.

Hurricane season begins June 1^st.  Hurricane news is typically released at 2:30 PM EST on Tuesday afternoons. 

The markets are down 18 of last 20 times for the week after June triple witching, which is the week of 6/20/11.

Market bullishness would be expected on June 30^th and July 1^st in front of the three day holiday weekend.

Diabetes Conference this month so those stocks may do well on news.

In general, watch for buoyancy the first couple days of each month as well as each Monday.  Failure of this trend will indicate bearishness ahead.  OPEX Friday is typically an up day.  Markets are typically up from the Tuesday into the Wednesday during OPEX week. For the Monday following OPEX, the markets will typically move opposite to the direction they moved on OPEX Friday. OPEX max pain is a guide from the second Thursday of the month thru the third Thursday of the month.

If markets are weak on a Wednesday, this typically ripples thru into Thursday’s morning session. In bull markets, indexes are usually up on the Friday’s and Monday’s.  Any change to this behavior indicates bearishness ahead.

The third year of the Presidential cycle, this year, is typically bullish, although with the disruptive quantitative easing in the markets, the expected behavior would be suspect.

Congress is in session which is bearish.

Typically, markets are buoyant on the FOMC meeting days; 6/21/11 and 6/22/11. For two day meetings, such as this month, the first day may be unsettled but the second day is typically bullish for markets. If markets are lower on FOMC meeting days, this can be viewed as bearish for markets overall.