Price has no reason to go back up, the red lines show the universal negative divergence; rising wedge and overbot conditions. The MACD negative cross occurs again which is very bearish. Note how the MACD cross accurately identifies when to buy and when to sell. The sell signal occurs two months ago but then the bulls reverse the move one month ago to ruin the bear's fun and create the double top in the SPX. The bears fight back and push the black MACD line back down through the smoothing line once again giving the bears the green light to sell the markets. A move to the 1630's, at a minimum would be expected moving forward in the nearer term, with far lower numbers likely as the weeks and months play out. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
KS,
ReplyDeletemore downside now will seriously limit the final lowest target of major 4.
Based on alternation principle now a bounce is due until start of Wednesday US cash session - that being qualified as a B wave to the upside.
More downside now indeed limits the downside to 1630's (100 daily MA- DMA) and this whole wave is Int. A of major 4 = that would have a projection of only 1570-1580 to the lowest point of major 4 (end of Int. C of major 4).
Upside for 2-3 days to the high 1680's (1685-1687)-(in the gap area - touched or closed that gap) allows for 1610's for Int.A of major 4 and 1513-1530's for the lowest point of Int.C of major 4 (end of Major 4).
So, the conclusion is this one: if the bears are highly impatient, eager and anxious to some lower scenario now, overall they will get less from this major 4 !
The principle of alternation works always !
If more downside now occurs, less downside targets overall for Major 4.
So, bears decide HOW MUCH DO THEY REALLY WANT???
A bounce here to the high 1680's has a projection of 1510-1530's for all major 4.
More downside here to 1630's limits major 4 final projection to only 1570-1580's.
Bears, decide!
V.
More down here to 1630's would qualify all this wave as Int.A of major 4.
DeleteUpside from here would qualify the slump from 1709 down to 1650's as only wave 'a' of Int.A of major 4. Wave 'b' of Int. A of major 4 would rise to 1680-1687 and after that 1610's for wace 'c' that would finish Int.A of major 4.
I hope this message is a clarification for the first message.
It's all about strategy and TA positioning.
V.
1688 in cash is the important 61.8% fibo retracement.
Delete...just a hint! :)
V.
Good targets V. Wonder what the bulls are thinking, like pressure us toward 1690 / 1700 so we cover again??? Or don't let us go up at all, your 1630's scenario. Somehow, 1680's and the gap seems highly unlikely since every blog on the planet is calling for it. My hunch is in either case - at the 1630's or the 1690's, they place us there right at 200pm on wednesday before the FED's FOMC minutes - taper language or no taper language ?????? Thanks for your analysis!!!
ReplyDeleteHi Daniel!
DeleteMy opinion is that bears are wise enough for their own financial good on medium term to close shorts here and reload shorts in the 1681 (50% fibo retracement) - 1688 (61.8% retracement).
That if they want some good show for weeks, not for days ahead ...
V.
V, that is my plan also, I figure if they pull us back to 1630 I can average in long, then sell in the 80's and start to build a short. If they break us out above 1700 and extend, I should get a small retrace wave to cover......Thanks again for your discussion, I have learned very much from this blog and I appreciate it!
ReplyDeleteit's my pleasure, Daniel!
DeleteYou're welcome!
:)
V.
Oh! And I've observed one more scenario , but this one is a very perverse one!
ReplyDeleteIf we go now down to 1630's , on the daily chart there is data that might just confirm that 1560-1709 was only wave 1 of Int.v of major 3 and 1709-1630's would be a 3-waves wave 2 of Int. v of major 3.
thus a very dangerous bullish wave 3 of Int. v of major 3 might be possible.
This scenario is eliminated through this bounce to 1681-1688 area (that would 100% eliminate the bullish danger of this daily-chart set-up).
V.
Majority of FED voting members not sustaining a September taper due to weak econ data.
ReplyDeleteFOMC minutes released via secured channels 48 hours earlier : https://t.co/y1oS4azioK
you have 10 minutes to view those minutes, after that I'll delete it.
Repost them please, I can't see anything.
DeleteI checked the adress now and I have this message:
"Sorry, that page doesn’t exist!
Thanks for noticing—we're going to fix it up and have things back to normal soon.
Search for a topic, full name, or @username"
Please repost it!
V.