SPX support, resistance, moving averages and other important levels are listed below. The SPX printed a new closing high for 2013 at 1551.18. Interestingly, a palindrome; 1551. Cue the Twilight Zone television show music since all the dates over the coming nine days are palindromes as well, 31113, 31213, 31313, 31413, etc... The SPX printed a new intraday high for 2013 at 1552.48 which fell pennies short of the major March 2000 market top, and also pennies shy of a peak in October 2007. The SPX is 14 points from a new closing high and 25 points away from a new all-time high. The important 1553 resistance assumes a major role as the new week of trading begins. If 1553 is violated then new highs for the SPX are very likely. Thus, the bears must come to play and prevent 1553 with all their might. If the bulls push through 1553 a touch of the 1560's is on the way in quick order.
Friday's action pivoted above and below the strong S/R at 1548 so look for additional action at this price level. If the bears push down through 1543 the markets will accelerate to the downside, through 1540 quickly, and then setting sights on the strong 1531 support. A move through 1544-1552 is sideways action for Monday. There are no economic releases on Monday so the markets will be susceptible to news events from Europe, China and Japan. Monday is a new moon and markets are typically weak moving through the new moon. Seasonality-wise, this OpEx week of trading in March is up over 80% of the time. An OpEx Tuesday low typically leads to a Wednesday high. Mix all those tidbits together and a profile appears for a weak start to the week but perhaps a low on Tuesday will lead to a recovery as the week moves along. Of course, if a news event occurs, positive or negative, the markets will respond accordingly. The bulls need 1553 and the bears need 1543. The strong 1548 S/R can be used as a line in the sand with happy bulls above, and happy bears below.
Friday's action pivoted above and below the strong S/R at 1548 so look for additional action at this price level. If the bears push down through 1543 the markets will accelerate to the downside, through 1540 quickly, and then setting sights on the strong 1531 support. A move through 1544-1552 is sideways action for Monday. There are no economic releases on Monday so the markets will be susceptible to news events from Europe, China and Japan. Monday is a new moon and markets are typically weak moving through the new moon. Seasonality-wise, this OpEx week of trading in March is up over 80% of the time. An OpEx Tuesday low typically leads to a Wednesday high. Mix all those tidbits together and a profile appears for a weak start to the week but perhaps a low on Tuesday will lead to a recovery as the week moves along. Of course, if a news event occurs, positive or negative, the markets will respond accordingly. The bulls need 1553 and the bears need 1543. The strong 1548 S/R can be used as a line in the sand with happy bulls above, and happy bears below.
· 1576 (10/11/07 All-Time Intraday High: 1576.09)
· 1565 (10/9/07 All-Time Closing High: 1565.15)
· 1556
· 1553 (10/31/07 Top: 1552.76) (3/24/00 Top: 1552.87)
· 1552.48 Friday HOD
· 1552 (3/8/13 Intraday HOD for 2013: 1552.48) (Previous Week’s High: 1552.48)
· 1551.18 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
· 1551 (3/8/13 Closing High for 2013: 1551.18)
· 1548
· 1542.94 Friday LOD
· 1540
· 1531
· 1528 (3/24/00 Closing Top: 1527.46)
· 1525
· 1524 (12/11/07 Top: 1523.57)
· 1523.55 (10-day MA)
· 1521
· 1520.62 (20-day MA)
· 1520
· 1518
· 1516
· 1514
· 1513.44 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Turn Signal)
· 1512 (Previous Week’s Low: 1512.29)
· 1509
· 1505
· 1503
· 1500
· 1498 (12/26/07 Top: 1498.85)
· 1495
· 1494.18 (50-day MA)
· 1489
· 1485
· 1481
· 1476
· 1475 (9/14/12 Intraday HOD for 2012: 1474.51)
· 1472
· 1468
· 1466 (9/14/12 Closing High for 2012: 1465.77)
· 1465
· 1461
· 1460
· 1457
· 1456
· 1455.94 (20-week MA)
· 1453.73 (100-day MA)
· 1453
· 1447
· 1446
· 1444.48 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
· 1444
· 1441
· 1440.72 (10-month MA)
· 1440 (5/19/08 Intraday HOD for 2008: 1440.24)
· 1438 (9/13/12 Fed Announces QE3 Infinity)
· 1435
· 1433
· 1431
· 1430 (12/12/12 Fed Announces QE4 Infinity and Beyond)
· 1429 (11/6/12 President Obama Election Top)
· 1427 (5/19/08 Closing High for 2008: 1426.63)
· 1426.29 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
· 1424
· 1422
· 1419
· 1417.83 (200-day MA)
· 1416
· 1414
· 1413.54 (50-week MA)
· 1413
· 1409
· 1406 (5/29/08 HOD: 1406.32)
· 1404
· 1403 (9/6/12 ECB Announces OMT Bond-Buying Program)
· 1402
· 1399
· 1397
· 1394
· 1391
· 1388
· 1385
KS, what do you think of the article below?
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/08/roubini-sees-market-correction-in-2nd-half-of-2013/
Nouriel is labeled as a permabear by media so any comments he makes are typically shouted down by the permabulls. It is best to be in neither of these camps. But Nouriel is likely correct. For one month, the oil, copper, Dr. Copper perhaps the key economic indicator above all, and commodities tanked but equities move higher. This is very atypical market behavior. It firmly verifies that the Fed pumping is what is fueling equity markets. The amazing thing is that without the Fed pumping, the SPX should be from 50 to 100 handles lower right now. However, the market is trading up due to the Fed, so traders will tell you to dance while the music is playing. It is a very unhealthy market environment currently. When commodities are dropping indicating a slowing global economy, and the China data on the weekend was weak, the writing is on the wall, but the Fed has its thumb on the scale choosing the bulls as the winner. The sad part is that many average folks are getting excited now about markets and will serve as the bagholders moving forward. So, Nouriel is likely correct, but in trading it is all about timing and the bulls are clearly winning with the Fed on their team. These are not regular markets, the Fed is a player in the markets which gives the bulls a tailwind, but it only serves to pump the dividend and equity bubbles now in place.
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