TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund Daily Chart

TLT is the ETF that moves up as Treasury prices move up (yield down). The jump in yields last week is clearly evident as TLT price dropped, in sync with Treasury prices dropping. The blue channel remains in place with price moving down to test the bottom rail as well as testing the 200-day MA support. Note that the indicators are oversold, the move down last week was sharp. The lower lows over the last couple months will lead to another lower low in the days and weeks ahead, but a bounce is likely first off the bottom channel rail and 200-day MA, and also perhaps after the gap fill at 107.5-109.0.

The red negative divergence spanked price lower last September but the money flow did want to see another high, and that occurred in December (green circle). Price has been in the red downward channel ever since with lower lows and lower highs so the trend lower is three months old. The chart wants a lower low in price after this current low is placed, the black line does not quite do that justice, but, the idea is that price will explore these levels at 107-110 and probably form positive divergence to sent TLT back up. The conclusion is that there is no play here in TLT right now, wait for the lower low after a pop back up and see if positive divergence forms that would allow a long side trade. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.