Keystone's Midday Market Action 3/3012

JJC remains above 48.83 but leaking lower as the session proceeds.  CRB has a 307 handle well under the critical bull-bear line at 312 so the market bears are very comfortable, as long as the CRB stays under 312. The China PMI data is key tonight since it will affect copper and commodities.  UTIL has a 457 handle so the bulls have their work cut out for them today since they have to be above 463 within the next five and one-half hours, otherwise, Monday will be set up for another bear leg down for the markets.

Consumer Sentiment data climbed again which is shocking since the gasoline prices are so high. Sentiment typically moves in sync with gasoline prices; folks are happy when gasoline cost is low since it provides more discretionary income that can be spent on fun. The SPX popped at the open as the futures hinted. SPX HOD is 1409.61 so the 1410 resistance is holding for now, keep an eye on this as well.  Tech did not assume a leadership role today even in the futures markets earlier.  The Nasdaq is now negative, AAPL is off a few bucks, and leading the broader market (SPX) lower, this is market bearish. Simply watch JJC 48.83, CRB 312 and UTIL 463 today since they tell you everything you need to know.

Note Added 3/30/12 at 11:00 AM: Big pop in CRB trying to acquire 309. The bulls know they need to regain CRB 312, otherwise the market bears will continue to grow stronger.  JJC 49.09 continues to dribble down towards the bears at 48.83. TRIN at 1.36 favors sellers today.  NYAD printed near +1900 remedying the near -1900 reading the day before thus no advantage here for bull or bear.  SPXA150R is 88.60 so the market bears are favored moving forward--unless this indicator moves back above 90, check it this evening. VIX is moving up today so that is encouraging the bears. UTIL at 458 remaining five points under the 463. The 8 MA is just now crossing above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart which favors market bulls. Five hours remain in today's trading so the 30-minute chart will receive ten more candles today and the 8 and 34 MA cross can be further monitored.

Note Added 3/30/12 at 12:15 PM:  JJC is printing 49.17, holding 34 cents above danger, helping the bull case.  CRB is around 309 firmly under 312 helping the bear case.  UTIL is printing 458.16 well under the 463 needed in less than four hours, which will help the bear case.  VIX is up, bearish.  Tech continues to lead the downside today, bearish. TRIN is 1.28, bearish, despite the markets on the green side.  Today would have been expected to be up at the start, then drift lower all day long, then in the final hour run up into the close.  We got the up at the open, then the down, now the up already and markets meander sideways.  Perhaps the bulls are sniffing out that the CRB will stay under 312 and UTIL will stay under 463 so the markets may drift lower into the close.  SVU is down a few pennies today as the CNBC television channel keeps showing the dogs for the year and Supervalu is listed, helping the large number of shorts to press, but the action simply provides better entries for this knife catch.

Note Added 3/30/12 at 12:45 PM:  SPX back up to test the 1409.61 HOD from the open. See how UTIL is testing the HOD as well. Bulls are trying to goose UTIL towards that 463 while creating market buoyancy. This is a critical test for today right now. CRB is at 309.50 remaining under 312.  SPX 1410 is R, if price pokes up thru, then next R is 1413.

Note Added 3/30/12 at 1:07 PM:  Resistance held at SPX 1410 and a spank down occurred. JJC continues to leak lower now printing 49.08. CRB is at 309.50.  UTIL is at 458 receiving a spank down coincidental with the SPX. This action is a big plus for bears. If JJC loses 48.83, markets will crumble lower. Have to wait and see if the bulls mount another charge this afternoon. Markets bears are in charge today despite the higher indexes.

Note Added 3/30/12 at 2:25 PM:  JJC is at 49.03, the bulls trying to keep it above 49. CRB is at 309.20 running out of gas.  UTIL is at 458 running out of time today with the bulls still needing five more points higher. Tech is not leading the upside which makes the buoyancy in markets surprising and can probably be chalked up to window dressing. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA for the SPX 30-minute chart which favors bulls. If price at 1409.60 can move down thru the 8 MA at 1408.86 it will curl the 8 MA back down to bring it in line with the other bearish indications. Markets may idle until the last half-hour of trading; it may be a wild finish today.

Note Added 3/30/12 at 3:50 PM: Keystone took a smidge profit on KGC exiting the trade.  This is a good one that should launch but with the CRB and UTIL looking bearish and JJC lifeless today, it was a good time to exit a long.  A position was opened on TWM (also in TZA currently).

Note Added 3/30/12 at 3:56 PM:  Look at the push in UTIL, now at 458.75 the HOD, gunning for 463, at least close enough to try for a gap up on Monday. UTIL 458.81..........

Note Added 3/30/12 at 4:07 PM: The numbers are finishing up; JJC prints 49.09 a dime off the LOD; CRB prints 308.50; UTIL prints 458.80.  Thus, commodities and utes will contribute negatively to the broad markets and encourage selling. UTIL closed at the highs today, the bulls were pushing hard needing the 463 but fell four bucks short.  Copper is on the bull side but JJC is only pennies above 48.83 that will ignite market selling. Thus, the bears have two of the three sectors above in their camp and the third almost there. The China PMI may be the savior for the bulls tonight.  The number will impact JJC and CRB. A lot is at stake for the bears as well, they are in shape to send markets lower next week but a bullish China PMI will bounce JJC and CRB strongly and perhaps throw the bear train off the tracks.  With UTIL under 463 to start next week, however, this is another sector now helping to drag the broad indexes lower and provide the bears some street cred. AAPL lost ten bucks today and finished under 600.