Note the semiconductors popping, despite weak news from Cypress Semi. The bump in the SOX is the market bulls attempt to perform a market recover today. Watch SOX 410.20, this is the latest number calculated by Keystone's algo. SOX moved above, then back below, now deciding at 410.04. The market bulls got nothing if they cannot move the SOX above 410.20. Copper, JJC, is at 48 remaining below the 48.40 critical level, which favors bears.
Keystone's SPX:VIX ratio remains under 68 favoring bears, although the bulls are trying to move it up printing 67.14 currently. The Nasdaq is leading the broad market higher today, thus the markets remain buoyant. The strength in the Nasdaq is due to AAPL. The iPad3 release occurs today and the news will impact Apple, which will impact the Nasdaq and tech sector, and thus impact the broad markets. For now, the bears are fine. The weakness in copper is a big feather in the bears cap. Watch CRB already down to test 313, now printing about 313.50, if 313 fails the broad markets will take another leg lower.
Note Added 3/7/12 at 11:04 AM: The ink was not dry on the above message before the SOX popped back above 410.20. Note how this helped the market bulls, the SPX now printing the highs of the day. SPX:VIX ratio is printing 67.84, a move up and over 68 will give the bulls some juice.
Note Added 3/7/12 at 12:46 AM: Lots of drama today, semiconductors, SOX now prefer the bull side. Copper walked the line across JJC 48.43 (remember these numbers are calculated by Keystone's algo so they continuously change slightly), and the market bears are winning now with JJC now at 48.32. The market bears are fine today thus far and the bulls can only regain control by pushing JJC above 48.43 and SPX above 1363. SPX:VIX is 69.69, above the bull-bear line at 68, signaling a strong bullish day today, but give this a chance to line out after the Apple announcement occurs in the coming minutes. If the bulls try to push higher, watch SPX 1358 resistance which is the 20-day MA.
Note Added 3/7/12 at 3:27 PM: Copper, JJC, is wrestling with that 48.43 bull-bear line all day long. Current print is 48.44 which now places it one penny on the bull side. SPX HOD is 1353.98, so treat 1354 as overhead resistance. Nowhere near the 1363 the bulls needed today. AAPL announcement was more sizzle than steak turning Apple red today but not selling off enough to turn the broad markets sour. SPX:VIX ratio remains above the 68 level at 69.70 so it demanded a strong up day and it was correct. The market bulls will keep moving higher if the ratio stays above 68; the bears need to move it back below 68 as soon as possible. Watch JJC 48.43 into the close.
Note Added 3/7/12 at 3:42 PM: Copper, JJC, directly on top of 48.43. Whichever side it closes on will decide if bulls, or bears, are favored.
markets not liking AAPL's products???
ReplyDeleteHello Arnie, AAPL laid an egg, it turned negative this afternoon. Everyone expecting a thoroughbred race horse and receiving a donkey, or expecting a Cadillac but receiving an Edsel.
ReplyDeleteLOL. I saw a picture on the news with their CEO (Tim Crook, right!?) in front of a big screen with "The New iPad" written on it.
ReplyDeleteThat ain't new, I was thinking. That's V3.0 (or V1.03..???). It's a not new, it's old and refurbished. That's really all. If AAPL ain't gonna be more innovative than this, it's fate will be sealed real quick and it can join the ranks with cisco and msft that once also were $500B companies. History has a tendency to repeat itself, and I don't see a reason why.
Back to Elliot waves; I think we just finished wave 4 today, of a 5-wave down (yesterday was end of wave 3, and the start of wave 4). Wave 4 was nicely sandwiched between 1352 and 1354 resistance levels. 30min MACD showing top of wave 4 is in or almost in IMHO. Wave 5 can be failed waves, e.g. not a new lower low, but should be down day tomorrow IMHO. If wave 5 proceeds as normal, I'd be looking for ~1330s. Then the 5-wave down move is complete and we can get the serious rebound (which should be an A-B-C type of corrective wave, and which could start Friday, right in line with the Jobs report!!!) testing the 1378 high IMHO. Once that retest is in, expect new major lows. But that's so far out, lets focus on tomorrow first.
KS, Keybot continues to amaze me. Just amazing. I cannot wait to see what tomorrow brings . . more drama for sure. Thank you so very much. Arnie, I am learning from you too. Thanks very much for your comments.
ReplyDelete- a newbie - Ande
Hello Arnie and Ande, looks like the Fed's leaking of the sterilized quantitative easing talk bounced markets and have futures up large Thursday morning. Thus, looks like markets may run higher, Keybot likely to flip back to the long side, but ECB rate decision and meeting occurring shortly is important.
ReplyDeleteThe action is reminimscent of July 2011, we had a drop off the top, now a bounce.