CRB Commodity Index Weekly Chart; Goods Inflation; Donnie Trump Tariff War Creates Inflation

The CRB clearly shows the goods inflation taking place and verified in this mornings data. The catapult higher in the CRB occurs exactly when Donnie Trump is reelected to office. He brags that he is Tariff Man wearing orange tights with a tacky gold T on his chest. The blue line on the chart clearly shows what is expected to happen to the price of goods since Donnie won. Up, up, and Away. Would you like to fly in Donnie's big beautiful tariff balloon?

The CRB is made up of aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, lean hogs, live cattle, natty gas, nickel, orange juice, RBOB gasoline, silver soybeans, sugar and wheat. About 40% of the CRB is agriculture, 40% energy, 13% base metals and 7% precious metals (PM). 

Keystone posted the CRB chart a month ago telling you it is leading the inflation parade. Everyone is coming up to speed. Inflation is made up of goods inflation and services inflation. After the pandemic, due to the outrageous monetary (Fed) stimulus and fiscal (Congress) stimulus pumped into the economy, inflation goes to the moon. Prices sky rocket. People start going on vacation after the pandemic and they want their toilets cleaned, stained bed sheets turned, new towels, their bags carried, their meals cooked, and their arses patted. Airline activity flies high. Hotels are busy. Events, concerts, resort destinations, etc..., are going like gangbusters.

This activity sends services inflation to the clouds, however, what goes up must come down. Even the wealthy run out of money to spend on discretionary fun. Over the last few months, the services inflation activity has flattened and started to roll over lower. This encourages the Fed that they are on the right path since it will help pull overall inflation down towards the 2% goal but while everyone was fixated on services inflation, no one was watching goods inflation that spent the last couple years choppy sideways.

King Donnie is handing out tariffs like Oprah hands out cars. You get a tariff! And you get a tariff! Look inside the envelope taped under your seat and that is the percentage of your tariff! You get 60%! You get 25%! You get an exemption because I will build a hotel in your country after I leave office! You get the idea. Another day in corrupt, crony America.

Traders have decided that Donnie Trump, the orange-headed Tariff Man, is creating inflation sending goods inflation, as measured by the CRB, from 277 to 313, a big +13% pop, in only 3 months. The CRB is going up almost +5% per month due to the Donnie tariffs and tariff threat chaos.

As price makes the higher high, you can see that all the indicators are in negative divergence except for the MACD line that remains long and strong. A spankdown is on tap, probably for only a week or two, then back up again to satisfy the MACD that still has gas in the tank to take price higher, that will then join the other indicators with neggie d probably in a couple weeks or so to place the top and then begin a multi-week slide lower. The goods inflation should hover for a while (1 to 3 weeks, maybe more).

Thus, if goods are flat for a few weeks, at these higher levels, and if services bumps along flat, even with the small downward bias, inflation is going to remain buoyant perhaps into the St Patty's Day, Easter, and Memorial Day holidays when the last hurrah occurs. Simply watch the chart above to see where the top comes in at on the weekly basis (between now, and, say, the end of the month or early March, then a multi-week slide lower say through back half of March and all of April when the inflation data should subside, but may not show up in the numbers until the May data.

It is plain to see what Donnie is doing with his self-proclaimed tariff war; he is pumping inflation higher when he said he would bring it down. The Biden family grifters leave town and the Trump and Musk family grifters arrive. Carole King turns 83. God Bless Her. She is one of the very few performers that could completely electrify an audience. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, Valentine's Day, at 5:50 AM EST: King Donnie is exposed as a paper tiger with tariffs. The orange head used all capital letters in social media yesterday screaming that it was the big day of reciprocal tariffs and no one would be spared. Surprise, surprise, NOT. It is another day in the Donnie presidential reality television show season two. King Donnie talks a big game but it is all bluster and his big announcement is to perform a study into tariffs with no details. But of course he says stay tuned for the next episode. Donnie wants the television cameras focused on his orange head 24/7. Stocks catapult higher because traders realize Trump's tariff talk is braggadocio with no follow-through. No one should be surprised that lame duck Donnie is an orange-headed bloviating carnival clown. CRB remains steady at the 313 palindrome and the big jump in goods inflation because of Donnie's election should level-off as the tariff lion is more like a tiny little tariff mouse. Oh my. America has to put up with 3 years and 11 months more of this garbage. Give people what they want. Shove it down their throats until they gag on it. Happy Valentine's Day. Rose Garden.

Not Added Friday Evening, 2/21/25: CRB 316.58 highest since June 2022. King Donnie inflation.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: CRB pops to 316.63 yesterday and collapses to 305.18.