Friday, January 31, 2025

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Rampant Euphoric Bullishness, Fearlessness and Hubris Signals Significant Stock Market Top



Take advantage of the melt-up to ditch any remaining longs. The hubris in the stock market and rampant fearlessness must be disciplined. What do you think? A Black Monday? Black Tuesday? The SPX all-time record high is 6128 and price today tags the 6116 palindrome forming a double-top. Fun times. Eve of Destruction.

If you do not get out of the stock market, you deserve everything that is about to happen to you. Do not wear your favorite shirt, because you are about to lose it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Afternoon, 1/31/25, at 3:42 PM EST: Did you get out? Let the blood and carnage begin on Wall and Broad. The SPX peaks at the HOD at 6121 almost up to the all-time high at 6128, and then falls on its sword down to 6031 a 90-point intraday collapse. Look at the rats scurry. There is no place to hide now. It is time to receive your head on a platter. Stocks should drop a long way from here. Monday will depend on the Donnie tariffs against Mexico, Canada and communist China. Pachelbel's Canon in D is fantastic as the knives are out and the harvesting begins. It is time to pay for your greed.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 2/2/25, at 6:05 PM EST: S&P futures collapse out of the gate this Sunday evening on the East Coast puking -115 points. The Dow futures are coughing up nearly -500 points. The Nazzy 100 futures plummet over -600 points. Russell 2000 small caps are down -3.5%. WTIC oil is up +3% to 75-ish. Gold up a few bucks at 2800. USD 108.50. Bitcoin drops to 97.2K. Donnie Trump's tariffs ignite a trade war. Mexico, Canada and China announce or plan retaliation against the US.

Note Added Monday Morning, 2/3/25, at 6:03 AM EST: VIX pops above 20 overnight now at 19.78. The bears are coming to play. S&P futures are down -90 points. USD 109.52. Bitcoin has a 95K handle. 

Note Added Friday Evening, 2/7/25, at 6:33 PM EST: The SPX finishes the week at 6026 down on the week. The neggie d on the weekly chart identified the top 3 weeks ago, on the weekly basis, and price drifts lower to 5924 testing the 20-wk MA support at 5928Price then recovered one hundo points off the bottom so the support held. Write 5924-5928 on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. It will likely be important next week. Markets are closed for President's Day on Monday, 2/17/25, and stocks are usually happy the 2 days before a 3-day weekend (Thursday and Friday) so if the bears want to raise a little Hell, like the Ozark boys, they need to be ready to play Monday through hump day. Valentine's Day is Friday so thoughts will turn to love, and the reason for living, on Friday. The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is 6010 only 16 points below the closing price. The 20-day MA is 6009 and the 50-day MA is 6001. The 6009-6010 is where the wheels begin falling off the stock market, then 6000-6001 will be lost, then 5924-5928 is where blood and carnage begins. The 100-day MA at 5906 and rising would be the last hope for the bulls before they fall into the bottomless pit. VIX is at 16.54 in the bull camp with the line in the sand at 16.87 only 33 cents away. This is fun to watch. Greed always takes its pound of flesh. Plan accordingly so you can take care of your Country Girl. Black Monday?

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