NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40-Week MA Cross; Bulls and Bears Battle at NYA 15155 to Determine Cyclical Market Control

It's been a little while since the NYA 40-week MA cross chart has been posted. The cross is an extremely important cyclical stock market indicator. The SPX 12-month MA cross is the most important cyclical indicator; it is currently in a cyclical bull with price at 4056 and the 12-mth MA at 3967.

The US stock market has been in a cyclical bear market for all of last year but the last couple-three months has been a transition zone with bulls and bears both battling for their lives. The nod has to still be given to the cyclical bear market pattern until a more convincing break from the sideways shuffle occurs.

Both the SPX 12-mth MA cross and NYA 40-wk MA cross display cyclical bull signals but it is the subject of this post to show you where the rubber meets the road. 

NYA price is at 15229 and the critical 40-wk MA is at 15155 only 74 points away. The moving average is so important that with price this close, surely it has to make a test and touch in the days ahead if not today or tomorrow. It is for all the marbles.

If NYA loses 15155, you will see carnage and blood flowing on Wall Street; the Eve of Destruction as Barry sings. Long stock holders will be crying in their beer opining about why they did not sell as they lose their shirts. It would be a major market failure. Bigtime.

If the NYA bounces from current levels, or drops to the 15155-ish and bounces, that tells you a new stock market rally is starting and stocks will remain buoyant for a while longer. Watch the NYA 40-wk MA cross closely since it will tell you a lot about the direction of the US stock market going forward through the year.

If NYA 15155 fails, next watch the SPX 3967 level mentioned above. If SPX 3967 is then lost, there is no longer any hope. It will be over for the US stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 4.28.23, at 7:30 AM EST: NYA took off like a banshee to the upside yesterday to 15432 as part of the big orgy rally. The above analysis remains in play. There is likely a date with the 40-wk MA ahead still yet. The Fed is on tap next week so stocks will likely chop sideways until Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High on hump day and tells traders how to trade.