SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Oversold; Negative Divergence Developing

The SPX 2-hour chart can be used to find out where the short term top is at. The SPX weekly chart remains weak and bleak with the MACD and money flow so it would like to see another matching or lower low in price on the weekly basis. The daily chart, however, was set up on the launch pad with positive divergence and boom, the SPX took off to the stratosphere with the possie d fuel.

So the expectation is after a few-day rally, the SPX should roll over again due to the weekly chart. Thus, using the 2-hour chart, you can try and figure out where this short-term top is hiding. The red lines show price bumping its head at 4388-ish for a few hours, Friday and today. As price pokes out these matching highs, the red lines show negative divergence, except for the MACD line (green).

That means price receives the spankdown over the last candlestick, each candle is 2 hours, see the red candlestick on the end, but the MACD has fuel in the tank that can bring price back up. Thus, the guess is that price will come back up and likely poke through 4388. Remember 4393-4394 is for all the marbles since this is the 12-month MA, the cliff edge, the demarcation line between a cyclical (weeks, months, years) bull and cyclical bear market (currently in a cyclical bear market).

Price is not ready for the smack down until all chart indicators go neggie d. Sometimes it is like herding kittens. When/if the SPX comes back up again, the MACD may go neggie d but perhaps the RSI decides to get a second wind and move higher again. The RSI is above 50% remaining in bull, not bear, territory. Well, then you will have to wait for the RSI to go neggie d. All indicators must be neggie d for the top to be in. Price may seek that upper band at 4432 if the happy rally continues.

Simply watch to see if price comes back up and when it tags 4388+, see if the MACD goes neggie d, if so, the top is in, if not, and  it is still sloping higher, price wants to keep going higher, on the 2-hour basis.

If the MACD goes neggie d over the next couple hours, the top may squeeze-in before the closing bell, otherwise it will likely be in play for tomorrow morning. Today is EOM and tomorrow is March. New money typically comes into the market to begin a month but the times are askew nowadays. The new moon is Wednesday and stocks are typically negative moving through the new moon each month which would be Tuesday to Thursday.

The 2-hour chart prints a new candlestick starting at 2 PM EST so in an hour so at that time check to see how the neggie d is doing. Of course if there is news out of Ukraine, or from Chairman Powell speaking before Congress, markets can go wildly one way or the other and the charts will adjust and set up as the news is digested. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 4:56 PM EST: The SPX plays around remaining soggy for much of the afternoon then receives the MACD fuel moving higher closing only 10 points down on the day. If you bring the 2-hour chart up, you can see the MACD line continues pointing higher long and strong. Thus, price will likely come up for the 4388+ print. Tomorrow is President Biden's State of the Onion speech where he will promise a chicken in every pot. The speech is 9 PM EST way past dinner, nap and pudding time. Maybe some Propofol over the last couple days is providing some restful sleep in preparation for the big night. The stock market may hang tight tomorrow waiting for King Biden's decrees that will move markets on Wednesday morning. Drug, energy, steel, auto, commodities, airlines and defense stocks will respond to Sleepy Joe's proclamations. Watch the MACD on the SPX 2-hour chart to see when she tops out; probably tomorrow morning, unless Ukraine news moves markets.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 3/2/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The negative news out of Ukraine limits the mini-rally to 4388 which is good enough for government work for a back kiss of the important 12-mth MA at 4393-4394, however, it would have been better for the bears for price to come up and touch 4393, then collapse. What's 5 points, right? The 2-hour chart still had that little bit of fuel in the MACD but it did not matter as the Russia mayhem spirals out of control and oil prices go vertical. Commodity prices are the highest since 2014 eight years ago. Stocks will absorb the State of the Onion speech. S&P futures are up +20 about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell in the States for hump day trading. Who will receive the humping today, bulls or bears? Bulls need stronger chips (semiconductors) but they are falling apart. Bears need weaker copper but it is a moonshot the last couple days. The stock market is in a Mexican standoff each side waiting for the other side to flinch. The SPX weekly chart shows the weak and bleak MACD that wants price to come back down again to a matching or lower low on the weekly basis.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/3/22, at 8:00 AM EST: The drama continues. SPX battles at 4393-4394 but March is underway and the 12-month MA is now at 4427. Thus, the demarcation line between a cyclical bull and bear market is SPX 4427. The S&P500 begins at 4387 this morning remaining in a cyclical bear market and yesterday's HOD was 4401. If the bulls win with the SPX punching up through 4427, the 10-month MA at 4474 is the next target needed and then it is blue skies above there. Bears simply need to keep the SPX below 4427. Each day that price remains under 4427 is more nails in the bull coffin and the lid is starting to get hammered on quite well. The bulls need SPX 4427 or they are toast. Remember the SPX 2-hour chart the other day when Keystone said the MACD still had fuel. Price comes back up for a higher high on that fuel and the MACD continues higher for the 2-hour chart. The SPX 2-hour chart may top-out this morning; you have to look at it after trading begins.