The United States finally has some good news to celebrate.
On 8/12/20, there are 2.379 million active cases less than the 2.383 million
active cases on 8/11/20. The active cases bell curve is flattening out as
illustrated above. Keep your fingers crossed as you walk on eggshells; the next
few days will tell the tale. The US is in the same position as back in May so
it took 2-1/2 months for America to have a second bite of the ‘flatten the
curve’ apple.
If President Trump was smart, he would be telling folks to
stay home and limit trips for the next week or so to make sure the bell curve
appears this time. As the chart shows, America’s partying on Memorial Day
doomed the US until now. If the active cases can remain flat for a few days and
trending slightly lower, about a week or so from now a dramatic drop lower will
occur as the right side of the bell curve shape plays out on the chart. The
peak in the active cases chart, the top of the bell curve, represents the
maximum stress and strain on the healthcare workers and medical equipment as
hospitals operate at maximum capacities.
The worst may be over for the US over the coming days and a
brighter path lays ahead; unless the second wave hits in the Fall as the
weather cools. Viruses like cool dry air more than hot humid air. The virus
particles and aerosols remain suspended in dry air longer. Generally, the virus
news around the world improves with exceptions such as the worst nations that
are listed below and Europe that may surprisingly be slipping back into
trouble.
As the pandemic news in America improves, the stock market
continues ramping higher. The SPX tested its all-time record closing high from
2/19/20 at 3386 yesterday but did not close above. The all-time record high is
3394 on 2/19/20. From a technical standpoint, the US stock market charts are
set up extremely ugly. Charts are in negative divergence across all indicators
and time frames (hourly, daily, weekly and monthly). In addition, the
complacency and fearlessness in the stock market is at record multi-year levels
indicating that a substantive stock market top is likely at hand right now. The
S&P 500 again tests the prior all-time closing high above 3386 but ends
today at 3373.
The IHME keeps releasing updated US death projections based
on its models. The latest is 300K Americans will be dead by 12/1/20 but 70K
less deaths will occur if everyone uses masks and follows social distancing
guidelines. It sounds like fear tactics. Cable news, medical organizations and
politicians are all spewing misinformation to the public only concerned about
their own individual, or perhaps a collective, agenda.
The public is being trained like pets to go out, or not go
out, wear a mask, don’t wear a mask, practice social distancing. One thing for
certain, the satellite trackers have a much easier time identifying you when
everyone has to remain six feet (2 meters) apart. The satellite technology
prefers humans to be about six to nine feet (2 to 3 meters) apart for optimum
tracking. Funny how the two distances correlate. Governments want their
populations to embrace the digital world and a pandemic forces this outcome.
All humans should resist these forces to the best of their ability. An
Orwellian future awaits where vaccines begin as voluntary, then become
mandatory, since you will need a card to state that you are vaccinated to
travel, shop and carry on with life as a human. The mark of the beast has
arrived.
The death chart above shows the Keystone Model projection of
190K to 220K deaths through October far less than the doomsayers. This is based
on deaths flattening out during a month period that usually begins about six
weeks after the active cases bell curve peaks. Thus, if 8/11/20 and 8/12/20, is
the peak in the bell curve, US deaths should flatten out during the back half
of September through October. The 300K death number by the IHME is not on the
table right now but if another wave of the pandemic occurs, all bets are off.
The death bar chart is also shown above which displays the
daily deaths. The 7-day moving average is being used by administrative
officials and the media so this is an agreed upon arbiter between opposite
sides of the argument. Nomenclature should have been identified and explained
from day one so people talk and write about apples and apples and oranges and
oranges not apples and watermelons and bananas and zucchini. People are
confused. The green lines show the 7 MA falling which is great since it means
the death rate is dropping. The red lines are bad since the death rate is
rising. When Trump and Pence say the death rate is decreasing, they are telling
the truth during the green lines but if they make that statement during a red
line, they are liars. The politicians on both sides cherry pick and
characterize the data to bolster their own agendas. Such is the world of crony
capitalism. As the US death rate climbs again, the Trump and Pence duo switch to touting the fact that deaths are less than back in April which is a correct statement.
1504 Americans die of coronavirus on 8/11/20, Tuesday, the highest number since 5/27/20 seven weeks ago. There are 24 hours in a day. There are 60 minutes in an hour. There are 1440 minutes in a day. There is one American dying each minute from coronavirus.
1504 Americans die of coronavirus on 8/11/20, Tuesday, the highest number since 5/27/20 seven weeks ago. There are 24 hours in a day. There are 60 minutes in an hour. There are 1440 minutes in a day. There is one American dying each minute from coronavirus.
Communist China’s coronavirus (COVID-19), developed and released
from the bioweapon laboratories in Wuhan (there are two labs not one), has
infected 20.8 million people around the world murdering 748K souls (three-quarters
of a million people!). 13.7 million people have recovered. The sick commie
bastards screwed the world.
The Wuhan killer disease, President Trump calls it the China
Virus, has attacked and sickened 5.4 million Americans (1.6% of the 330 million
US population), the highest number of cases in the world, murdering over 169K United
States citizens. 2.8 million people have recovered. America is only 4% of the
world’s population but has one-quarter (26%) of the coronavirus cases and
one-quarter (23%) of the deaths.
China must pay for its bioterrorism and crimes against
humanity. Ole dirtbag Dictator Xi is quiet these days. Chinese studies indicate
that only one virus transmission occurred outside with all others occurring
inside, however, you have to take everything a lying communist says with a
grain of salt.
In the US, 1 in every 1235 blacks have died of coronavirus.
For the Native American and Latino communities, 1 in every 2000 have died. For
the white and Asian communities, 1 in every 3030 have died. Only 33 whites and
Asians have died per 100,000 people while 81 blacks and about 50 Native
Americans and Latinos have died per 100K. Two-and-one-half times as many blacks
die of the virus as compared to whites and Asians. As the data show, covid is
not a death sentence but you will look at it from a different perspective if
you are one of the 1’s.
The bulk of the US deaths are folks above 65 years old with
one or more pre-existing conditions especially heart and lung issues and/or
diabetes. President Trump says kids are immune to covid which is an incorrect statement
but he is coming around now saying that children fight the virus far better
which he should have said all along. Trump continues to proclaim that US
schools should be opened but several have gone into lockdown after students
have tested positive for the virus. Parents are not happy that they are flying
blind receiving conflicting information on the best way to proceed.
The back to school issue is going to hit the fan over the
next two weeks since this is the time of year that all public schools and
universities open for the new school year. Doctors and scientists fear a new
wave of infections like after Memorial Day which took us 2-1/2 months, until
right now, to flatten out and potentially create the bell curve on the active
cases chart going forward. It would be a shame to blow it again.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in
the world followed by Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa, Peru, Mexico, Columbia,
Chile, Spain, Iran, UK, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Mexico and Peru
switch positions over the last 10 days after switching positions 10 days prior.
Columbia moves up two slots on the list (getting worse). Saudi Arabia leapfrogs
Pakistan.
Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are dealing with a second
wave of coronavirus. Australia is in the southern hemisphere in wintertime
currently and appears to be getting a handle on the virus with the active cases
curve peaking. Ditto Hong Kong that has the active cases curve heading lower
already. Many Asian nations are used to these pandemics and can snuff out an
outbreak quickly. In Japan, the active cases curve continues higher but it
would not be surprising it topped out in the days ahead.
Spain is moving towards a second wave event with new cases
rising steadily but the data is sketchy. A big surprise is France with its
active cases curve launching higher sending the nation into a second wave, or
second pulse if you prefer. Active cases in Germany are also increasing. The
active cases curve for Italy is very subdued but it is also starting to bow slightly
upwards again. The new cases in Netherlands spike higher clearly sowing a
second wave higher. Ditto Belgium. These charts are hinting at bad news for
Europe. Europe must stay focused. Keep the virus at bay since a second wave
would be devasting for the continent and world. Everybody thought Europe was
free and clear of covid but it is hiding behind the drapes ready to jump out
and show its ugly face again.
Peru is also ramping higher in new cases forming a second
wave taking out the first wave highs in May and the active cases curve
continues higher. Chile is in better shape. These two nations are top copper
producers so limits in production have sent copper prices skyward. Bolivia is
in that neck of the woods and putting up a big fight against the virus.
An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection
Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes and more
data and information are available. This is Article 16 in the coronavirus
series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists,
economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians
studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This sixteenth article is published on Thursday,
8/13/20. This series of coronavirus articles are the only real-time source of
information available continuously chronicling the ongoing coronavirus pandemic
from the beginning.
The first article in the coronavirus series is US
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20; The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus Infection Rate Model; US COVID-19 Infections Surpass 3,300; Federal
Reserve Blinks and Cuts Interest Rates to the Zero Bound Embracing ZIRP and
Announcing $700 Billion QE Program; US Futures Tank Limit-Down; Coronavirus
Archive Article 1 published 3/15/20.
The second article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 3/24/20; Italy Daily Cases Leveling Off;
US Daily Cases Continue Rising; Congress Negotiating Fiscal Stimulus Bill;
Coronavirus Archive Article 2 published 3/24/20.
The third article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/3/20; Italy Daily Active Cases Peaking;
United States Faces Ugly Coronavirus Pain Ahead; US Monthly Jobs Report;
Coronavirus Archive Article 3 published 4/3/20.
The fourth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/13/20; US Active Cases Continue
Rising; India, Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, Russia, Peru, Ecuador and UK Headed
for Trouble; Second Wave Worries; President Trump Ushers in Age of MMT (Modern
Monetary Theory (Limitless Spending)); Rampant Job Losses; People in Need;
Finger-Pointing Begins; Worldwide COVID-19 Cases Top 2 Million; Coronavirus
Archive Article 4 published 4/13/20.
The fifth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 4/23/20; Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland, Germany, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China are Coronavirus Success
Stories; Italy, France and Spain Finally at Top of Active Case Bell Curve; UK,
Ecuador, Japan, Turkey, Peru, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, India, Russia, Mexico
and Singapore Brace for Virus Pain; Countries Anxious to Restart Economies;
“Flattening the Curve” Term Misused; Ongoing Shortages of Virus Testing
Supplies and PPE (Personal Protective equipment); Congress Passes $484 Billion
Spending Bill; US COVID-19 Deaths Top 50,000; GRIM VIRUS NEWS 4/25/20; Coronavirus
Archive Article 5 published on 4/23/20.
The sixth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate model Update 5/3/20; America Restarts Economy as New
Virus Cases Increase; US Active Cases Not Expected to Peak Until 5/21/20; 68K
Americans Dead from COVID-19 More Than Vietnam War; Testing Deficiencies
Continue; Coronavirus Preferentially Hurts Black Community; Brazil, Nigeria,
South Africa, India, Russia, Mexico and Chile Descend Into COVID-19 Hell this
Month; US-China Relations Collapsing; President Trump Says 100K People May Die;
U of W Model Says 134K May Die in US; Coronavirus Article 6 published on
5/3/20.
The seventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/14/20; Russia, India, Nigeria, Brazil,
UK and Philippines Remain Mired in Virus Trouble; South Africa, Indonesia,
Chile, Peru and Mexico are in COVID-19 Hell; America Restarts Economy Before
Flattening the Curve; Texas, California, New Jersey and New York Worst Virus
States; Testing Deficiencies Persist; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second
Wave Fears; Coronavirus Article 7 published on 5/14/20.
The eighth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 5/24/20; Math Explains the Black and
Latino Infections and Ongoing Coronavirus Zeitgeist; Russia, Poland, Brazil,
Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Columbia, Honduras, Mexico, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and South Africa in COVID-19 Hell;
America Restarts Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens; New York,
Florida, Ohio, Washington, California, Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina are
Worst States Not Yet Able to Flatten the Curve; Coronavirus Tragedy Turns
Political; President Trump Refuses to Wear a Mouth Diaper (Face Mask); Hertz
Goes Bankrupt; US-China Relations Deteriorating; Second Wave Fears; Trump
Golfs; US DEATHS EXCEED 100,000; Coronavirus Article 8 published on 5/24/20.
The ninth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/3/20; Indonesia, Philippines, Egypt,
Kenya, South Africa, Mexico, Honduras, Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, Chile,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India are in COVID-19 Hell; America
Continues Reopening the Economy; US Active Cases Curve Finally Flattens
(Tentatively); Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina and California are Troubled
States; Second Wave Worries Continue; US-China Relations Deteriorating;
Population Becoming Complacent About COVID-19; Coronavirus Article 9 published
on 6/3/20.
The tenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/13/20; Philippines, Peru, Iran, Kenya,
Poland, Sweden, India, Indonesia, Honduras, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, South Africa, Egypt, Columbia and Argentina are in COVID-19 Hell;
US Virus Cases Rising in Many States Due to Increased Testing, Reopening the
Economy, Protests and Large Groups Gathering; Arizona, Texas, Arkansas, South
Carolina, North Carolina, California and Florida are in Serious Trouble;
President Trump Moves Republican Convention to Florida Where Virus Cases are
Spiking; Protests and Riots Increase Around the World; US Police Under Scrutiny
for Racial Injustice; Public Health Authorities Clueless; Coronavirus Article 10
published on 6/13/20.
The eleventh article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US
South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida,
Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of
Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia,
Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble;
Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating
Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11 published on 6/23/20.
The twelfth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/4/20; US Experiencing Dramatic Uptick
in Cases as President Trump and Vice President Pence Signal the All-Clear;
Ohio, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas, Georgia, California, Alabama, Arizona,
Texas and Oklahoma are in COVID-19 Hell; Texas, Arizona and Florida are
Reaching Limits on ICU Beds; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, South Africa and
Kenya are in Serious Coronavirus Trouble; COVID-19 Timeline; Coronavirus
Article 12 published on 7/4/20.
The thirteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/14/20; President Trump Pressures
States to Reopen Schools; Donnie Finally Dons a Face Diaper; US Death Numbers
Controversy Explained; RNC (Republican) Convention in Jeopardy; Kansas,
Washington, Tennessee, Alaska, the Carolina’s, Idaho, Wisconsin, Arkansas,
Oregon, Ohio, Louisiana, Georgia, Utah, Montana, Alabama, Oklahoma, Missouri
and Kentucky Join Florida, Texas, Arizona and California in the Coronavirus
Cesspool; Oman, India, El Salvador, Bolivia, Argentina, South Africa, Romania,
Mexico, Colombia and USA are in COVID-19 Hell; US-China Relations
Deteriorating; Italy Textbook Bell Curve; Coronavirus Article 13 published on
7/14/20.
The fourteenth article is The Keystone Speculator
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 7/24/20; President Trump
Reverses Course Touting Mask Use and Restarting Coronavirus Press Conferences;
Over 20 Million Americans Remain Unemployed; New Mexico, Alabama, Wisconsin,
Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, California, Oklahoma and Missouri are the
Most-Infected States; US Healthcare System is Under Heavy Pressure Through
August; Australia, Hong Kong and Japan Hit with Second Waves; India, El
Salvador, Argentina, South Africa, Romania, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico,
Kazakhstan, Colombia, Kenya and United States are Most-Infected Nations; US-China
Tensions Escalate; Coronavirus Article 14 published on 7/24/20.
The fifteenth article is The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus
(COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 8/3/20; Australia, Hong Kong, Japan,
Spain and Peru Handling Second Wave; Philippines, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico,
India, Ukraine, El Salvador, Peru, Spain, Argentina, Romania and Brazil in
COVID-19 Hell; 41 US States Show Active Cases Curves Continuing Higher; 9 US
States are in a Second Wave; Coronavirus Particle Size Analysis and Aerosol
Behavior; Public Restrooms and Fecal Matter May Be Major Factors in Virus
Transmission; Testing Troubles Continue; Coronavirus Article 15 published on
8/3/20.
As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site
is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its
link is provided. Charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided
courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM)
forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region
which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. TKSCIRM
monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies
the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the
active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus
situation is handled.
If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active
cases will peak 11 days, on average, after the new cases peak (think South
Korea, Australia, Hong Kong, etc..). If the country is not well-prepared, like
the US and other nations currently dealing with the pandemic, the active cases
will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28
days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak
Date.
Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Spain, France, Netherlands,
Belgium and Peru serve as test cases for the second wave that may hit the
United States this Fall (September-November). Australia and Hong Kong are
handling and defeating the virus in the same relative time frames that they did
the first time around so that is encouraging for other countries.
The top of the bell curve pattern on the active cases chart is
important since it represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and
healthcare personnel. As highlighted above, the US active cases may be finally
peaking.
The Keystone Model identifies the new case peak date for
forecasting purposes. Any subsequent higher new case numbers will create a new
peak. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new
date becomes the new case peak date where 28 days is added to project when the
peak in the active cases chart will occur. The behavior of matching or higher
high new case numbers signals that the virus is getting worse in that region.
The peak new case date for the US is 7/24/20 with 78,407 new
cases in one day. Adding 28 days, provides a target date of 8/21/20 for the US
active cases to peak. The active cases bell curve chart may have peaked on
8/11/20 (Tuesday) with the 8/12/20 (Wednesday; yesterday) active cases slightly
lower. We will know for sure in the days ahead. Cross your fingers and toes.
The worst global hotspots are highlighted below with their
projected peaks in active cases dates (maximum stress on healthcare workers) provided.
Bangladesh
7/2/20 New Case Peak Date
7/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues higher)
Indonesia
7/9/20 New Case Peak Date
8/6/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (may have peaked 8/11/20)
Australia (Second Wave; southern
hemisphere)
7/30/20 New Case Peak Date
8/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; may peak this week)
Hong Kong (Second Wave)
7/30/20 New Case Peak Date
8/10/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; it peaked 8/2/20 so the data is suspect but it is good
news for Hong Kong)
Japan (Second Wave)
8/1/20 New Case Peak Date
8/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days; chart continues higher but may peak this week)
Honduras
7/20/20 New Case Peak Date
8/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
United States
7/24/20 New Case Peak Date
8/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (peak may have occurred 8/11/20; next few days are key)
Brazil
7/29/20 New Case Peak Date
8/26/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (peak may have occurred 8/8/20)
Mexico
8/2/20 New Case Peak Date
8/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart is trying to peak and flatten)
France (Second Wave)
8/2/20 New Case Peak Date
8/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (this second impulse higher in France is similar to the US so both nations
are making the same mistakes)
Bolivia
8/2/20 New Case Peak Date
8/30/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Spain (Second Wave) (data may be
problematic)
8/4/20 New Case Peak Date
9/1/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Belgium (Second Wave)
8/7/20 New Case Peak Date
9/4/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Philippines
8/10/20 New Case Peak Date
9/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
El Salvador
8/10/20 New Case Peak Date
9/7/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Netherlands
8/11/20 New Case Peak Date
9/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Argentina
8/12/20 New Case Peak Date
9/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (peak is shown for 8/8/20 which indicates problematic data)
Peru (Second Wave)
8/12/20 New Case Peak Date
9/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Colombia
8/12/20 New Case Peak Date
9/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Ukraine
8/12/20 New Case Peak Date
9/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Romania
8/12/20 New Case Peak Date
9/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Iraq
8/12/20 New Case Peak Date
9/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
India
8/12/20 New Case Peak Date
9/9/20 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
You can see how Europe is coming
back onto the coronavirus stage with rising cases in several nations including
France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands. Europe needs to work on preventing
a new outbreak over the next two weeks. However, businesses want to reopen and
people want to return to normalcy. This is a tricky period for Europe but the
problem is that no one seems to know what is clearly explained here. Broadcasters
across the pond are openly bragging how the virus was handled far better than
the US by using the ‘European system’. From the Book of Proverbs, paraphrasing,
“Pride goeth before a fall.”
Philippines is the worst
coronavirus pandemic country in Asia. India in South Asia. Russia says they
have developed a virus vaccine. This is a difficult story to believe since
their ventilators are catching fire burning people to death in their hospital
rooms. A vaccine is far more difficult to develop than a ventilator. Dirtbag
Dictator Duterte is teaming-up with Russia to test the vaccine on the
population using the great Filipino people as lab rats. Murderer Putin cannot
be trusted.
South America remains in a virus
quagmire but conditions are improving slightly in Brazil and elsewhere.
Colombia, El Salvador, Peru and Argentina remain troubled areas. Another
regional virus cluster is in that western Asia eastern Europe area with
Romania, Ukraine and Iraq seeing a spike in new cases and active cases curves
that continue higher. Turkey is in the middle geographically but their virus
data cannot be trusted like Russia and China. Despite the bad news for the
countries listed above, in general, virus conditions improve ever so slightly
around the globe.
For America, the troubled states are
highlighted below with their projections on when the active cases curve will
peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The top
13 states for total virus cases, from highest to lowest, are California, Florida,
Texas, New York, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey, Arizona, North Carolina, Louisiana,
Tennessee, Pennsylvania. Ohio, the key battleground state that all future
presidents must win in the election on 11/3/20, is number 16 on the list. New
York led the list for months but the hotspots of California, Florida and Texas
take on the dubious top roles. Illinois leapfrogged New Jersey and Tennessee
leapfrogged Pennsylvania.
New York is in good shape now with
its active cases curve displaying the desired bell shape. Ditto New Jersey. Massachusetts
has weathered the first wave of the coronavirus storm. Ditto Pennsylvania. Rhode
Island is facing a second wave. Connecticut, New Hampshire, Maine and Vermont
have weathered the first onslaught of the virus. South Dakota, site of the
Sturgis motorcycle rally last week, is hanging in there with a flat active
cases curve albeit choppy.
Georgia worsens. Tennessee is
having a tough time of it but the active cases curve is chopping sideways so
the medical personnel are hanging in there. With some luck, the worst may be
over for Tennessee. New Mexico remains in bad shape over the last month but the
media never mentions the state.
Illinois, Virginia, Michigan,
Indiana, Colorado, Nebraska, Delaware, Maryland, North Dakota are handling
second waves.
Arizona
New Case Peak Date 7/1/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/29/20 (chart continues higher)
Florida
New Case Peak Date 7/12/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/9/20 (chart continues higher)
Washington (state)
New Case Peak Date 7/13/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/10/20 (chart continues higher)
Texas
New Case Peak Date 7/15/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/12/20 (may have peaked 7/22/20 and chopping sideways)
Utah
New Case Peak Date 7/16/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/13/20 (may have peaked 7/25/20)
Iowa
New Case Peak Date 7/16/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/13/20 (may have peaked 7/26/20)
Nevada
New Case Peak Date 7/17/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/14/20
South Carolina
New Case Peak Date 7/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/16/20 (may have peaked 8/6/20 and chopping sideways)
Kansas
New Case Peak Date 7/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/17/20 (may have peaked 8/7/20 and chopping sideways)
Oklahoma
New Case Peak Date 7/21/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/18/20 (may have peaked 8/10/20 and chopping sideways)
West Virginia
New Case Peak Date 7/22/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/19/20 (may have peaked 8/3/20 and chopping sideways)
Alabama
New Case Peak Date 7/23/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/20/20 (may have peaked 8/11/20)
Delaware (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/24/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/21/20
Georgia
New Case Peak Date 7/24/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/21/20
Montana
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/22/20
(may have peaked 8/2/20 and chopping sideways)
Maryland (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/25/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/22/20
Colorado (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/28/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/25/20 (may have peaked 8/8/20 and chopping sideways)
Oregon
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/23/20
Louisiana
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/23/20
(may have peaked 7/28/20; data is suspect)
Alaska
New Case Peak Date 7/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 8/23/20
Rhode Island
New Case Peak Date 7/27/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/24/20
New Mexico
New Case Peak Date 7/27/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/24/20
Wyoming
New Case Peak Date 7/28/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/25/20 (may have peaked 8/4/20)
Michigan (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/29/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/26/20 (may have peaked 8/8/20 and chopping sideways)
Ohio
New Case Peak Date 7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/27/20 (chart shows a peak 7/27/20 so data is suspect)
North Carolina
New Case Peak Date 7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/27/20 (may have peaked 7/26/20 and chopping sideways; data is suspect)
Mississippi
New Case Peak Date 7/30/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/27/20 (may have peaked 8/2/20; data is suspect)
Hawaii
New Case Peak Date 7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/28/20
Tennessee
New Case Peak Date 7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/28/20 (curve is flattening and chopping sideways)
Nebraska (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/28/20 (may have peaked 8/8/20)
North Dakota (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 7/31/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/28/20
Wisconsin
New Case Peak Date 8/1/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
8/29/20
Idaho
New Case Peak Date 8/6/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/3/20
Virginia (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/4/20
Arkansas
New Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/4/20
Indiana (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/7/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/4/20
Illinois (Second Wave)
New Case Peak Date 8/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/5/20
Minnesota
New Case Peak Date 8/8/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/5/20 (may have peaked 8/8/20; data is suspect)
Missouri
New Case Peak Date 8/10/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/7/20
California
New Case Peak Date 8/11/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/8/20
Kentucky
New Case Peak Date 8/12/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date
9/9/20
Idaho takes a turn for the worse. The
Idaho active cases bell curve chart is shown above and there is no bell pattern
as yet on that puppy. Goodluck to the Idaho healthcare personnel and their
families because you folks will be working double-shifts for the next month to
create a bell curve on that nasty chart.
Kentucky falls out of bed. Kentucky
was not in bad shape a week ago but now collapses into oblivion at the bottom
of the list. What are you folks doing in Kentucky? Licking doorknobs? Stop it.
The Bluegrass State is singing the blues. The spike in new cases in Kentucky is
shown in the chart above. Missouri is another one that slipped on the list. The
great St Louis Arch is now the Gateway to the Coronavirus rather than to the
West.
California’s problems continue
with new cases placing a new peak on 8/11/20 only two days ago. The active
cases chart continues higher and is not projected to peak until Labor Day. Arkansas
moves down on the list (worse). The Midwest remains a hotspot with Indiana,
Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Wisconsin and North Dakota seeing
increases in their new and active caseloads.
As a general observation, the
states are placing their peaks on the active cases bell curve charts a touch
faster than the projections by the Keystone Model. Perhaps that is reflective
of the medical industry learning better treatment techniques and also testing
procedures and other virus support programs are improving.
The governors and senators in the states
at the bottom of the list are not performing well at handling the coronavirus
pandemic. There are other states that remain in fairly good shape such as the
northeast United States. For the 10 worst states listed above, assessing which
are red states (prefer republican and conservative leadership and direction)
and which are blue states (prefer democrat, liberal and progressive leadership
and direction) is nearly an even split. Kentucky, Mississippi, Indiana,
Arkansas, Idaho and Wisconsin are six red republican states while California,
Minnesota, Illinois and Virginia are four blue democrat states.
Both the Republican Tribe and Democrat
Tribe destroyed the United States over the last five decades with their
never-ending greed and non-transparency so it is fitting that it is roughly a
50/50 split verifying their equally-weak management skills. Both parties are
incompetent and lack leadership. Such is the US crony capitalism system that is
playing out its final months and years.
Another observation is the virus data
becoming choppy and more haphazard. The reporting periods are not consistent.
The states showing active cases peaking before or coincidentally with new cases,
such as Ohio, contain data errors so you do not know if the state is in better
or worse shape. The new cases lead to further upswings in active cases. Just
chalk another thing up to the overall weak US handling of the pandemic mess.
America used to be the land of excellence five decades ago but now it is a shadow
of its former self a land of mediocrity.
For any state that has not yet
reached its peak in the active cases curve, simply identify what day the new
cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell
curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If
subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are
within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak
date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load. The states at
the bottom of the list will be the last to see relief for their healthcare
workers and medical equipment.
The mask controversies continue.
More research is being performed into the effectiveness of different face
coverings. Masks likely do very little to prevent the spread of the virus;
there are medical studies that show this true for viruses. The mask packages state that the coverings are not effective in stopping viruses. Masks are effective
in hospitals and other medical settings and the N95 masks are best. Doctors and
scientists commenting on television continue to tell the public to save the N95
masks for the healthcare workers. What?! After six months, the United States
still has trouble supplying masks to everyone that needs one. That is weak
leadership.
The credibility of doctors,
politicians and other officials involved in handling the pandemic is in
question. It is the blind leading the blind. Americans are sorting through the
chaos and conflicting information and simply doing what they think is the best
thing to protect themselves and their families.
People are commenting on how the
coronavirus particle size is smaller than the openings in the masks including
the N95 mask (which is correct). This was discussed in the prior article. Particle physics is
complicated. The tiny virus particle will typically piggyback on top of another
particle say a water vapor particle or dust particle. The combined diameter of this virus/water
bubble particle, floating in the air, is then larger in diameter than the better
masks would allow through. Over time, the water particle will evaporate and the combined particle will decrease in size and potentially become tiny enough to penetrate masks. No wonder Americans are flustered, stressed and some
wound tighter than a drum. People will hear ten different stories about a virus subject and each missive will say something different. Citizens are left sorting through the mess trying to figure out what information will be helpful. What a mess.
The testing program remains a
national embarrassment. Over the last couple weeks, new cases are going down
but the testing is substantially down. Trump gets his way telling medical personnel
to not test as often and then the US will have less cases. Perhaps Donnie does
not understand that the cases still exist out there in the population whether
you test for them or not.
Shamefully, the biggest drop off
in testing is in the inner city and poor communities the folks that need help
the most. As usual, the poor and disadvantaged are spit on if it means the
privileged class can put five more bucks in their pocket. It is nauseating that
thousands involved in professional sports are tested daily, with results
available within a day, and yet poor folks are denied tests until they kneel in
front of the doctor and kiss his leather wingtips. This is America in 2020.
The virus test data is coming
under more scrutiny. There are several examples above where the data seems a
bit odd so there is little confidence in the conclusions involving that data. The
US testing and tracing program remains a mess. Positivity rates remain too high (above 5%) in many areas to mount an effective tracing program. Doctors and scientists are
wondering if the Sturgis motorcycle rally in South Dakota will be a
super-spreader event, or not. Most of the bikers in attendance, from every state in the country, are not the
mask-wearing type.
This morning, the US Jobless Claims
data was just under 1 million claims, an ongoing disappointment, however, below
1 million for the first time in 21 weeks. Researchers are saying that 40% of
the workers that were kept on the company payrolls with the government funds
did not have any work to do; they basically sat around. How’s that for
productivity? The upper class chastises the out of work huddled masses for
wanting supplemental unemployment. The wealthy accuse common Americans of
refusing to go back to work because they make more on unemployment than at
their job but many of these folks do not have a job to go back to. This obscene
nauseating mess is called capitalism (which only exists in theoretical
textbooks; America is a faux free market crony capitalism financial system in its twilight years).
The political baby games continue
between the republicans (Trump and Pence) and democrats (Biden and Harris).
Biden picks California progressive Senator Kamala Harris for his vice president
running mate. She is of Jamaican and Indian descent so the politically correct ethnic
description is a black woman or Asian American woman. Biden and Harris meet
with coronavirus doctors and scientists today and at the conclusion of the
meeting call for a nationwide mask mandate. Biden says 40K lives will be saved if everyone uses a mask. Telling people to wear a mask for three months will not be popular.
It is the silly season when a
republican is proud for not wearing a mask while a democrat is proud for
wearing one. They all need their heads examined. Modern-day politicians pledge
allegiance to each of their political tribes before doing what is good and
right for common Americans.
President Trump receives heat for
not providing funds to the US Post Office to help with mail-in voting. Trump
has set up mail-in voting as the boogey man and a potential area of complaint
if he loses the election. Trump will tolerate chaos and delayed deliveries at
the post office since that will likely help his reelection bid (more democrats
tend to vote via mail than republicans). Trump places what is good for the
Republican Tribe ahead of what is good for America (fair elections). Oh well,
that is the way it goes with crony capitalism. The Democrat Tribe does the same
thing with other issues.
Trump signed executive orders to
continue unemployment subsidies for Americans but that is turning into a bit of
a mess since limited funds may be gone in a quick seven or eight weeks. The
president harpooned the stimulus bill negotiations between republicans and
democrats. The bill remains deadlocked with both sides accusing the other of
not cooperating. Trump made a political calculation and since the two sides had
difficult agreeing on a stimulus bill, he figured an executive order will make
him look great for saving the day and protecting Americans, allow him to then
badger the democrats for not cooperating, and run cover for republicans that do
not want a deal. The tribe is always placed before the country.
Trump is trying to get over on
democrat Speaker Pelosi that has ate the orange man’s lunch twice; once during
the government shutdown and the other on the budget negotiations. Trump does
not like to lose especially to a woman. So there is a lot of palace intrigue
going on behind the scenes in the sick crony political world. Congress is
typically on recess this month so there may not be a stimulus package for a few
weeks. Many low-income Americans were counting on the $1200 payment to pay some
bills but that will have to wait. Aunt Millie was hoping for a dinner of
hamburgers for once but now that government assistance is delayed, she eats
franks and beans for another night with a couple slices of slightly stale
bread. Americans appear equally mad at both political parties proclaiming a pox
on both their houses.
As mentioned at the top of the
article, the US stock market is likely poised for a significant multi-week, and
perhaps longer, selloff. Congress will probably sit on their hands and keep
playing games until stocks fall like rocks. A sick stock market will focus the
two sides and force them back to the negotiating table to agree on a stimulus
package probably between $1.5 and $2.0 trillion.
President Trump conducts a news
conference at 5:30 PM EST. The president refutes Biden’s call for a national
mask mandate. Americans are sick of all this daily back and forth baby stuff.
Speaking elsewhere, Doctor Fauci
says he is not happy with the way the pandemic response is proceeding. Fauci
cites an increase in positive tests in several regions of the nation. He
worries this may evolve into another impulse higher in new cases.
Interestingly, Fauci cites Ohio, Tennessee, Kentucky and Indiana as states with
higher positivity rates and these worries jive with Keystone’s list above.
Fauci says California, Florida, Texas and Arizona show signs of improving. The
information above agrees with the exception of California which is worse. The
Golden State’s active cases curve continues higher which means the healthcare
workers are being worked hard these days. Fauci may want to look at California
a little closer.
Fauci comments on herd immunity where a virus or disease can be eradicated if 60% to 80% of the population becomes infected. The virus simply runs out of hosts to attack. Fauci warns that if the US tried to achieve herd immunity, it would result in an enormous death toll. More doom and gloom. 2% of the US population is infected with the virus as shown by the statistics at the top of the article. Fauci says lots of people with ongoing health issues such as obesity (most of the country is too fat from sitting behind computers all day), hypertension, diabetes and other ailments would perish. Fauci says it is unlikely that the coronavirus will ever be eradicated.
Fauci comments on herd immunity where a virus or disease can be eradicated if 60% to 80% of the population becomes infected. The virus simply runs out of hosts to attack. Fauci warns that if the US tried to achieve herd immunity, it would result in an enormous death toll. More doom and gloom. 2% of the US population is infected with the virus as shown by the statistics at the top of the article. Fauci says lots of people with ongoing health issues such as obesity (most of the country is too fat from sitting behind computers all day), hypertension, diabetes and other ailments would perish. Fauci says it is unlikely that the coronavirus will ever be eradicated.
The hydroxychloroquine controversy
continues. A doctor is fired from her position for prescribing the drug to
treat covid patients because the hospital has a policy against its use. She is
doing the talk show circuit proclaiming that hydroxychloroquine is a safe drug
(it is a safe drug and used to treat malaria) and great treatment for covid. As
explained in a prior article, the studies on the drug show two results. For
patients very ill with the virus, the drug does not work, however, for people
initially becoming symptomatic, the drug is helpful especially when taken with
zinc. So the drug cheerleaders cite the studies that prove its efficacy for the
initial covid patients while the drug naysayers point to the studies that say
it is worthless for someone severely ill.
Comically, you can hear the
confusion in talk show host voices when during the interviews the doctor
verifies these studies. In other words, she is touting the use of the drug, and
those that support using the drug jump on her bandwagon proclaiming it is safe
and great for treating covid, but the doctor herself says it is not useful for
those that are seriously sick. The mass confusion and daily chaos concerning
pandemic information is one for the record books. After all, it is the bread
and circus days like ancient Rome. Everything is entertainment. Today we destroy each other and seek
debauchery on the internet which is the modern-day Colosseum.
The covid pandemic removes our
humanity. Human touch is absent in 2020. The powers around the planet want
humans to adapt to and embrace the digital world and for those that don’t, they
will be forced. Be an independent thinker and question the silly pandemic rules
espoused by mayoral fools. Do not take the mark of the beast easily. Shun the
fake technological world and instead seek the human touch.
The positive exciting news is that
the United States active cases chart shown above may have topped-out two days
ago which means the burden on America’s health system will level off over the
coming days and then drop off significantly say a week or two out. Keep your
fingers crossed since the next few days will tell the story if the bell curve
forms, or, if the US makes another mistake like Memorial Day and ends up
heading higher with new cases again.
President Trump takes questions at
the news conference and continues the diatribe about reopening schools. Trump
uses the bully pulpit as his campaign stump. Any other president would do the
same thing. There is minimal talk about the virus. Comically, Trump tells Biden
to not play politics with the virus but that is what the orange man does on a
daily basis. Trump fields questions on foreign affairs.
The political baby games are
ramping up and will become more outrageous and uglier. The October surprises from
both sides will be released in four to seven weeks. Trump will probably try to
smear Biden and his son over deals in the Ukraine and China while Biden will
provide some type of dirt on Donnie. Two pigs are slingin’ mud at each other;
how appropriate. It is really not that important of an election since America
is simply picking the silver-haired white guy that will be overseeing the ongoing downfall of the crony
capitalism system.
Note Added Friday Morning, 8/14/20, at 2:43 AM EST: The UK extends its lockdown on travelers entering the country adding France and Netherlands to the list. It is a very smart move on the UK's part. As per the discussion above, Europe is sliding down a slippery covid slope again while everyone is busy congratulating each other on how the virus was handled two months ago. France needs to be watched very closely in the days ahead. The CDC releases four easy guidelines that will help battle coronavirus; wear a mask, practice social distancing, wash hands and be smart about crowds. As the previous article explained, watch out for the public restrooms where people are spitting, coughing, hacking, picking and performing other human biologic functions that are spraying virus particles and aerosols all around those smelly and stank lavatories. Nevada reports 34 deaths the highest number of the coronavirus pandemic thus far. The positive news above is now not-so-good news. Yesterday, 8/13/20, the US active cases bump higher to 2.40 million extending the upward move in the chart. Keep watching it; perhaps it will roll over in the days ahead. The rate of change higher is subsiding (the active cases bell curve is exhibiting flattening behavior) but the key is to have the chart go flat and then roll over lower. The House and Senate leave Washington for summer vacation without signing a new stimulus bill. The incompetents will return tan and rested on 9/8/20. Americans that hoped for stimulus now do not have any hope.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 8/15/20, at 4:50 AM EST: The good news about the US active cases bell curve flattening and rolling over is getting blown out of the water. The good news turns bad. Sadly, the active cases chart is marching higher again. Daily new cases in the US jump to the highest number since 8/7/20 and 7/31/20. This is not good. America is unable to get a handle on the virus due to the ongoing chaos, confusion, missteps, misinformation and shamefully inadequate testing and tracing program. Congress went on vacation until Labor Day. Trump is playing with his Twitter account posting numerous capital letter messages saying everything is the democrats fault. That's rich for the president to harpoon the stimulus bill negotiations between the democrat-controlled House and republican-controlled Senate with his executive orders, and then complain daily that the democrats are obstructing. It is another day of corrupt baby games between the Republican and Democrat Tribes, both of which feel their tribe is more important than the country. Isn't that sick? The huddled masses continue stockpiling pitchforks and torches and declare a pox on both their houses. The ongoing protests and riots will continue in the US and only become larger and more expansive. The huddled masses will use these events for looting; this is the main idea behind the ongoing social unrest. It is justified in the minds of the participants since they watched the wealthy class rape America for all its worth over the last decade-plus, courtesy of the Federal Reserve and other corrupt central banks. America's middle class is gone. The United States is 30 million upper class versus 300 million lower class. Who do you think will win the class war during the coming months and years? Crony capitalism is ending.
Note Added Friday Morning, 8/14/20, at 2:43 AM EST: The UK extends its lockdown on travelers entering the country adding France and Netherlands to the list. It is a very smart move on the UK's part. As per the discussion above, Europe is sliding down a slippery covid slope again while everyone is busy congratulating each other on how the virus was handled two months ago. France needs to be watched very closely in the days ahead. The CDC releases four easy guidelines that will help battle coronavirus; wear a mask, practice social distancing, wash hands and be smart about crowds. As the previous article explained, watch out for the public restrooms where people are spitting, coughing, hacking, picking and performing other human biologic functions that are spraying virus particles and aerosols all around those smelly and stank lavatories. Nevada reports 34 deaths the highest number of the coronavirus pandemic thus far. The positive news above is now not-so-good news. Yesterday, 8/13/20, the US active cases bump higher to 2.40 million extending the upward move in the chart. Keep watching it; perhaps it will roll over in the days ahead. The rate of change higher is subsiding (the active cases bell curve is exhibiting flattening behavior) but the key is to have the chart go flat and then roll over lower. The House and Senate leave Washington for summer vacation without signing a new stimulus bill. The incompetents will return tan and rested on 9/8/20. Americans that hoped for stimulus now do not have any hope.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 8/15/20, at 4:50 AM EST: The good news about the US active cases bell curve flattening and rolling over is getting blown out of the water. The good news turns bad. Sadly, the active cases chart is marching higher again. Daily new cases in the US jump to the highest number since 8/7/20 and 7/31/20. This is not good. America is unable to get a handle on the virus due to the ongoing chaos, confusion, missteps, misinformation and shamefully inadequate testing and tracing program. Congress went on vacation until Labor Day. Trump is playing with his Twitter account posting numerous capital letter messages saying everything is the democrats fault. That's rich for the president to harpoon the stimulus bill negotiations between the democrat-controlled House and republican-controlled Senate with his executive orders, and then complain daily that the democrats are obstructing. It is another day of corrupt baby games between the Republican and Democrat Tribes, both of which feel their tribe is more important than the country. Isn't that sick? The huddled masses continue stockpiling pitchforks and torches and declare a pox on both their houses. The ongoing protests and riots will continue in the US and only become larger and more expansive. The huddled masses will use these events for looting; this is the main idea behind the ongoing social unrest. It is justified in the minds of the participants since they watched the wealthy class rape America for all its worth over the last decade-plus, courtesy of the Federal Reserve and other corrupt central banks. America's middle class is gone. The United States is 30 million upper class versus 300 million lower class. Who do you think will win the class war during the coming months and years? Crony capitalism is ending.
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