by K E Stone
There is finally enough new data to further understand the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), from Wuhan, China, where the disease started, to 150 countries worldwide and counting. The communists did a number on all of us. Initially, only China data is available which you know is lies but now we have data from our friends across the pond in Italy which is more trustworthy. Reference Keystone's prior article on the spread of the coronavirus for more study and information linked here; US Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infections Chart 3/15/20.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model now blends the China and Italy data to hep project the path ahead for the United States. Here are the data sets;
China
1/22/20 Begin
2/6/20 Rate of Change of Daily Cases Levels Off (2/2/20 thru 2/10/20) (15 days)
2/17/20 Number of Virus Cases Peak (Top of Bell Curve) (11 days)
4/8/20 Projected Date to Lift Wuhan City Ban of Population Movement (51 days)
Italy
2/25/20 Begin (give or take a few days)
3/21/20 Rate of Change of Daily Cases Levels Off (3/19/20 thru 3/23/20) (24 days)
3/31/20 Projected Number of Virus Cases Peak (11 days)
5/21/20 Projected Date Where Population Movement Bans are Completely Lifted (51 days)
United States
3/5/20 Begin
3/29/20 Projected Rate of Change of Daily Cases Levels Off (3/27/20 thru 3/31/20) (24 days)
4/9/20 Projected Number of Virus Cases Peak (11 days)
5/30/20 Projected Date Where Population Movement Bans are Completely Lifted (51 days)
Since we have established that Dictator Xi and his mainland cronies are corrupt liars, more emphasis is placed on the Italy data. The projected dates have obviously not occurred but are estimates on how the COVID-19 virus will roll through the planet's regions.
For China, where the Wuhan Virus (coronavirus) began, most likely at one of their two bioweapons laboratories, the city lock-down was fast. In a communist dictatorship society, that is easy to do. That quick lockdown resulted in the daily virus cases peaking in a couple weeks. Then, 11 days hence, or say a couple weeks after that, the daily cases peak which is the top of the bell curve as shown in the China chart above.
The charts are courtesy of our colleagues over at Worldometer that are doing an excellent job providing data and charts on the ongoing coronavirus tragedy. The charts are annotated by Keystone.
Italy and China do a lot of business together. In fact, most probably do not know that Europe is China's largest trading partner not the US. Thus, it makes sense that Italy got smacked hard with the virus; the Chinese and Italians have lots of daily interactions. The good news for Italy is that the daily virus cases are leveling off as the Italy chart shows. It is likely the real deal this time. Note how the data flattened out a week ago only to stab Italy in the back again with a swift rise in cases.
The United States will likely take a similar path to Italy. When the testing kicks into gear, it creates a sharp spike in the number of cases. King Donnie and the US state representatives and senators have been sleeping on the job with virus testing only now starting to ramp up to adequate levels.
So hang in there Italy!! The number of coronavirus cases in Italy should peak-out on 3/31/20; in a few days. This is the top of the bell curve (reference China chart) so things will greatly improve for the boot-shaped nation during April.
China says it will reopen the Wuhan region to free movement and allow people to get back to work on 4/8/20. Of course this date is tentative since a new outbreak would immediately change things. This is expected to occur 51 days after the peak in the number of virus cases in China. Thus, for Italy, the full unlimited movement of people and society, and things truly getting back to normal, will likely not occur until mid to late May and forward. Looking on the bright side for Italy, the light can be seen at the end of the tunnel and fortunately it is not an oncoming train. April will be a far more positive month for Italy than the Ides of March.
Now to the United States. Using the Italy data, the US daily rate of change of virus cases are projected to level off between Friday, 3/27/20 and Tuesday, 3/31/20. However, if the testing in the US remains woefully inadequate, the number of daily cases will continue to climb higher and higher. We will see how well King Donnie is doing his job over the coming days.
The toughest times for the United States are at out doorstep now for the next three weeks. If there was any time that you want to hunker down in your bunker with your honey, it is now. It would be wise to limit your movement to every extent possible since now through, say mid-April is the hot zone for the United States.
The US must show its hand in the next three or four days. If the number of daily cases do not level off as projected above, the subsequent dates will have to be right-translated. There are two key things to focus on. First, watch the daily Italy virus case data to make sure it remains flat or falls. This guarantees that Italy's bell curve will top out as month ends and will be going down the right side of the bell curve during April.
Second, watch the number of daily cases for the United States. That bar chart is at the Worldometer web site. Italy finally has reason to truly be optimistic since the cases will peak-out now and an improvement will be apparent in April. This will boost spirits in all of Europe. The UK and US can then further refine their projections for the trouble ahead.
President Trump is opining that the virus will end quicker than people think but there is no way to know what he means since he always talks in the abstract. The projection above says the United States does not get back to normal operation until June and later. If that is what Donnie has in mind, it matches the above. If the number of daily US cases continues rising due to more testing being performed, things will not return to normal in America until July or August.
As of this writing, in the US, there are over 46K people infected with the virus, 582 are dead, there will be 600 by noon time, and 300 have recovered.
The daily cases in the United States are jumping higher with 9,359 on 3/22/20 and 10,168 cases on 3/23/20. Americans hope and pray that this number will remain at 9 or 10K-ish for a day or two and then slowly drift lower. That will be fantastic news. However, if the daily cases keep climbing, the peak in daily cases will keep being pushed forward and misery will continue longer into the future.
It is comical to hear President Trump use the word "we" so much. For the last three years it was "I" and "me." Donnie told all of us, "I sent the stock market to record highs." Funny how he is not claiming credit for the epic record of the fastest stock market collapse in history and the stock market has not gained a lick since he was elected. Sadly, the news on the coronavirus will become bad over the next couple weeks so do not be surprised. This is especially obvious that the virus news will worsen since Donnie says "we." He is already trying to spread blame around as all politicians do.
The stock market is due for a relief rally and the S&P futures are running limit-up. Congress should agree to a fiscal stimulus bill and pass that perhaps today and stocks will be joyous. The public will be quick to say that stocks will come back; they are programmed that way. The real fun likely begins in a few months when we roll over into H*ll a la the 1929 crash and the Great Depression. We will have to see how far the stimulus goes and when the charts again signal the demise of the US stock market.
A word of caution. Keystone was thinking the end game would occur this year as all faith and confidence is lost in the Federal Reserve and other corrupt global central bankers. It is occurring. The thinking was that the Fed would throw the kitchen sink at the economic and market collapse at the April meeting which would result in the loss of confidence. No need to wait for then; the Federal Reserve fired all its ammunition yesterday. All faith and confidence is lost in the world's central bankers. The end game is near. Be very cautious about any long you hold for the remainder of the year.
Going forward in the near-term, stocks will likely perform a relief rally. A lot of weak hands will sell because they are afraid of losing more money and what typically happens is stocks will rally further higher at that point. Then, everyone will opine about how stocks came back like they always do and all is fine again. Whammo. That is likely when the stock market will be smacked hard and pushed down the cellar steps. Since the Fed has spent all its bullets, the day of reckoning may be coming faster. In the near-term, a healthy recovery rally may be what the doctor is temporarily ordering but the patient will become sick again once the easy money morphine wears off.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continues to try an paint a rosy picture for the economy before the coronavirus. Wrongo. The Retail Sales data has been dropping since December. The Fed was touting the consumer as holding up the economy; well they apparently had to set it down and stop holding it up four months ago. Everyday is another day of half-truths and baby games from the central bankers and elite class who only worship money and power. The world including the US was already slipping into recession.
The Fed saved the day last Fall with massive QE after the September liquidity event that almost took markets down. That was all phony stock gains and a great opportunity for the elite class, and smart professional stock traders, to exit, and allow Ma and Pa to hold the bag again. All the bag holdin' sucka's are opining at the water cooler, those that are able to work in this virus shutdown, discussing the -30% and -40% drubbings in their stock portfolios. Easy come, easy go. There's winners and losers every day in the Big City, sonny and girly. But do not believe that horsesh*t from the Fed that the US economy was strong before the virus; it was not.
It will be interesting if President Trump is now associated with and linked to Herbert Hoover who ushered in the Great Depression. The following two weeks likely determines not only Donnie's fate in future history books but also if he wins or loses the November election. If the number of daily cases levels off, Trump may be able to pull out a win in the long run. If America's give up hope and panics over the next couple weeks as the COVID-19 virus hits the hardest, Trump's future may be like sand falling though voter's fingers.
Airplane maker BA is enough to make you puke in crony America. Boeing fed off government handouts and subsidies for many years, receives preferential loans that common people have no access to, and bot back stock to pump the BA price higher. The wealthy elite made millions off BA stock raping it for all its worth. Management did not save a dime for a rainy day. Now, the airplane manufacturer, roiled in scandal, comes to the American taxpayer wanting a bailout. Do you understand how the crony capitalism game works in America? It is plain as day. What a filthy system.
All the jackasses on their soapboxes a month ago touting free market capitalism are now donning beggin' pads, kneeling with hands in a prayer pose, asking for bailouts, cash handouts and other government and central banker largess. What a joke it all is. This is not capitalism; it is a corrupt crony capitalism system.
The fiscal stimulus bill is held up in Congress since the democrats want more funds to help common people instead of bailouts for companies again. Republican Leader McConnell is of course on the side of big biz and wants to see more bailouts. It is comical to hear people tout a capitalism system that does not actually exist in America. Remember, one-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock; do you think these huddled masses have any sympathy at all for the folks that lost their shirt in the market over the last three weeks?
America is best described as a faux free market crony capitalism financial system. The United States is not free but instead simply more free than other nations on earth, which makes it a better place to live. The United States is rigged for the wealthy elite class since they are in the positions of power that control laws and the flows of money and funding. The upper middle class perform the bidding of the super wealthy and are complicit in cheerleading the pretend capitalism. All ism's throughout history fail in 200 or 250 years or a lot sooner. With the recession now in place in America, a class war will soon follow. If the republicans continue pushing for corporate bailouts and that type of thing, it will only exacerbate the class war.
After a decade or two of transition for the US, America will likely adopt a socialism-light type structure a la the Nordic states. This would likely be a good direction to go in since capitalism obviously failed due to human greed and non-transparency. Only the sons and daughters of wealthy folks begin businesses since they do not have to worry about failing. At least in a Nordic-style model, all people will have a fairer opportunity to pursue entrepreneurial endeavors not just the families with money.
Keep an eye on the Italy and US data and match it to the projections above.
Note Added 8:10 PM EST: King Donnie proclaims that the US will reopen for business on Easter, 4/12/20. What is he smoking? He may want to resurrect the economy but he is no Jesus. Not even Lazarus. Look at the US chart projection above. At Easter, the United States will be peaking in the number of coronavirus cases. Telling people that all is groovy on Easter would be the height of stupidity and incompetence. It is time to retreat to the bunker and pull the manhole back over the opening. The rehearsals and dry-runs are over. The next 2 and 3 weeks are going to be the worst period in the US for the coronavirus outbreak. If you do not have to go anyway, it would be very smart to stay at home and take a chill pill. America will know how bad the virus will attack the States over the coming days. Wall Street sets records in the up direction for a change printing the strongest upside point gains in history. The SPX gains 210 points, +9.4%, to 2447. The Dow gains 2,113 points, +11.4%, to 20705. Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, remains short from 2815 on 3/11/20. Humorously, Congress continues fighting over the fiscal stimulus bill as the gamblers play on Wall Street (Kenny Rogers, The Gambler, croaked the other day). The markets expect a brand new shiny and strong pony to be delivered to the NYSE tomorrow. If instead an old donkey with a sunken back shows up, there will be H*ll to pay. Society has been programmed to constantly think optimistically for the last two or three decades. If you ever say a negative comment, you will be immediately shamed into blindly speaking happy talk. Hence, the level of continued optimism in the stock market is comical. Everybody and his brother expect a solid recovery in stocks and tout the same standard line that in the long run stocks always go up. Daryl and his other brother Daryl may be in for a rude surprise not only this year but moving forward many years.
Note Added 4:49 AM EST on Wednesday, 3/25/20: Congress agrees on a fiscal spending bill. The exact details will be known today. Futures are mixed overnight. When the deal is announced, futures are actually flat and uninspired. Yesterday's rally was record-setting. The spending bill is $2 trillion but yesterday a $2.5 trillion number was bandied about. The boneheads inside the beltway must have played hooky the day they taught the expectations game at school. Just as the earnings bar is kept low so the company can easily step over, or the performer that begins by downplaying his ability and then knocking your socks off, you always want to under-promise and over-deliver. This is how you become a hero in life. The republocrat and demopublican hacks flunk the expectations game. If they were talking $2.5 trillion, then that or $3 trillion (which are ridiculous numbers), would be expected; instead the final number is $2 trillion which feels deflating while humorously the trillion in bailouts represents the collapse of crony capitalism in America. S&P futures are at their highs currently this morning up +44 points, +1.8% so the agreement on the bill is creating some positivity. King Donnie appears on Fox News last evening proclaiming that the stock market will return to its record highs. He must still be smoking whatever he is smoking each day. The SPX (S&P 500; the US stock market) falls from 3394 to 2192, a 1202 point drop, a -35.4% crash in only 24 trading days; it is an epic and historic stock market crash and will be discussed in college classrooms for decades to come. Donnie will be in the record books forever with this catastrophic market failure. Making back over 1200 points is a formidable task and would require a percentage gain of +55% for stocks. As they say in Brooklyn, "Good luck wit dat." King Donnie is opining about relaxing the restrictions on 'social-distancing' and wants families to be out and about on Easter. This is stupid talk. The United States will be mired in coronavirus problems in early April but Donnie wants that made-for-tv image that everything comes together for a happy joyous ending on Easter. It is delusional and troublesome that the leader of the Free World is more concerned about the wealthy losing money in the stock market and the creation of a happy Easter ending to the COVID-19 pandemic rather than focusing on the real and escalating problem of getting more gowns, masks, and protection equipment to the healthcare workers dealing with an increasing number of virus-infected humans. The EOM and EOQ1 occurs next Tuesday so there are only five trading days remaining in the month and first quarter. When a month moves strongly in one direction, stocks then typically finish the last two or three days of the month in the opposite direction. March is obviously a crash month all down from start to present, thus, some buoyancy would be expected to end the month. Perhaps stocks chop sideways to sideways higher from here into April, or, a pullback may occur in the back half of this week as the fiscal stimulus deal is analyzed, which likely would set up a rally for the last couple days next week to finish-out the horrendous month and quarter for long traders. Conversely, short-sellers are dancing in the streets; the stock market crash was glorious and beautiful. All of you knew it was coming as Keystone explained in detail with charts and technical analysis since December. If you did not prepare, well, you screwed-up.
Note Added 6:37 AM EST on Thursday, 3/26/20: Italy is on track to peak out in the active COVID-19 cases in the days ahead. Hang in there Italy! The booted-nation is about to start kicking back so do not give up now! The daily cases in Italy are now flat for seven, almost eight consecutive days; this is fantastic news since it tells you that the active cases in Italy will peak out in the days ahead (the peak of the bell curve occurs on the active cases chart and the cases will then begin decreasing). Medical folks need to hang in there since you will notice things improving within a week or two. The news is not so good for the land of the bullfights (Spain) and for the shining city on the hill (America). Spain is currently being thrown into the heart of the coronavirus fire. Spain is feeling pain with the number of daily cases continuing to ramp higher, like the United States, so the top of the bell curve for active cases is nowhere in sight and likely at least two to three weeks away for both Spain and America. These two nations are now kindred spirits, holding hands, and walking into the valley of covid death together. The virus situation will become worse in the days ahead. No person at peace in their mind, heart and soul ever fears evil.
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