SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart

Today is the first day of April trading and for Q2 which means the March SPX data is now cast in concrete. March was an up month creating a 3-month uptrend off the late December-early January bottom. Keystone called the top in the stock market last Fall. It wasn't rocket science. You simply had to wait for the neggie d to lock-in; Keystone described the whole process last year and declared the top with the overbot conditions, rising wedge, universal negative divergence across all indicators and the upper band violation. The S&P 500 checked all the boxes and signed its death warrant. Too bad the Wall Street analysts kept telling Aunt Nellie and Uncle Paul to buy with both hands. All they had to do was to look at a chart.

So the smackdown occurs in Q4. The 10-month MA now at 2780 is an initial line in the sand for the stock market much-followed by old-timer's and programmed into many algo's. Keystone's most important market signal is the 12-month MA at 2769 that determines whether equities are in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market. The SPX 12-month MA is programmed into many algorithms including Keybot the Quant. The SPX is well above 2769 so the stock market is in a cyclical bull by this important metric. On the way back down, watch out when the 12 fails next time since stocks may go into free fall.

The December and January price candlesticks and indicators show that price wanted to come back down in February-ish due to the weak and bleak MACD line. The sick global central bankers, however, that have destroyed any hope that free market capitalism will survive, started printing money like madmen to save the stock market and, as always, protect the wealthy class. It is proof positive of central banker intervention in markets that stabs capitalism in the heart.

This behavior is a repeat of the early 2016 stick-save by the Fed and other central bankers that created the Tweezer Bottom (blue circle). The central bankers are one-trick ponies only capable of goosing all asset classes with easy money. They have no plan or ability to withdraw from the one-decade of obscene Keynesian experiment. The grand 10-year financial experiment started by Chairman Bernanke, then continued by Chair Yellen and now Chairman Powell, may fail miserably only succeeding in making the wealthy privileged class rich beyond their wildest expectations. A new Gilded Age emerges. The human greed is nauseating.

So stocks rally during Q1. There is no reason for price to come up for a new record high above 2941 based on the chart which displayed universal neggie d at the late September-early October top. That does not mean it won't. Stocks can always rally on more happy central banker talk and/or positive US-China trade talk. The upper band is at 2950, which would be a new all-time record high, and this must be respected although currently not expected.

All 3 of those moving averages should be back-kissed going forward. There is an interesting triple-top in play. Many traders say triple tops do not exist since they typically resolve with price continuing higher and the third top disappears. However, from Keystone's experience, it is a 50/50 proposition. Half the time price will be spanked down by a triple-top while the other half of the time price will continue higher. In other words, do not pay much attention to triple-tops.

Market bulls are fine as long as they remain above the 2769-2780 range. If this support fails, the stock market may potentially collapse into oblivion. The low CPC and CPCE put/calls signal rampant market complacency and fearlessness which may force the SPX to drop to test this critically important support level at any hour any time this month. That is where the story will be told. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.