The Monthly Jobs Report is cancelled this morning due to the government shutdown. JJC closed on top of the critical 40.13 level yesterday so today the broad indexes were set up to move the way copper moves, and copper is up, so markets are up, JJC is above 40.13. Watch XLF 20.01 and GTX 4889. Both are bearish and will create substantive upside fuel if either or both turn bullish. Keybot the Quant remains short but if XLF or GTX turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 1692, and stays above, Keybot will likely flip long today. If financials and commodities remains weak, then Keybot will likely remain short into the weekend.
UTIL is 478.91. The 485.90 level is important for next week as well as the 50-week MA at 483.53. If UTIL ends the day at 4 PM EST under these two levels, this forecasts market weakness to occur at Monday's opening bell. Bulls need to move the SPX above 1692 today to ignite a wild upside bull party into the weekend. Bears need to push under 1670 for a bear party. A sideways move occurs through 1671-1691 and this may be the chosen path. The new moon is 8:35 PM EST this evening and markets are typically bearish through the new moon. Key S/R is 1691-1692, 1685-1686 and 1669-1670. The 8 MA is under the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart and the SPX is under the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1685.13 both signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead. The SPX 50-day MA is 1679.90.
Note Added 11:13 AM: Speaker Boehner is talking now reiterating the House position which is unchanged. Markets soften as the political clown show continues each day. The Senate clowns will probably parade their red faces, blood red from booze, in front of the cameras in a couple hours reiterating their same old position of refusing to negotiate. Most Americans are now blaming both sides equally; a pox on all their houses. UTIL 478.27. JJC 40.58. XLF 19.93. GTX 4876. TRIN is 1.35 on the bear side today. SPX is 1682.42. Copper is carrying the bulls today.
I fail to see why this should be a negotiation. The issue in question has already been decided. The Senate, the house, and the President already passed the Affordable Care Act (such as it is). The Supreme Court already weighed in on the issue and determined that ACA is Consstitutional. I, for one, don't like the ACA, but that's not how a democracy works. You don't get to hold the country hostage over an issue that's already been decided. It's not the time or place for that. If you don't like the ACA, either take it directly to the ballot, or raise the issue again after the next election. These sort of tactics DO NOT help anyone. But you don't get to throw a tantrum in the toy store and get your way either.
ReplyDeleteMark
DEMOCRACY! THE ACA WAS WRITTEN BY THE DRUG AND HEALTH INSURANCE COMPANIES, the exchanges are the idea of WALMAT and like companies to keep from having to provide benefits! It was rammed down the throat of small business by BIG BUSINESS at the point of a gun THROUGH THE IRS no less@!
ReplyDeleteJustice Roberts actually said in his decision that death and taxes are the only certitude and so the ACA IS A TAX not a mandated product!
DEMOCRACY INDEED - IF you think the voters or even THE ESTWHILE DEAD REPUBLIC mandated this idiocy then you're a fool. But that's what we have now, a country of dependent, compliant sheep who think that terrorism is an actual threat (more people die in their bathtubs for Christs sake!) and that the Federal Government is necessary.
Constitutional! Read what Thomas Paine said about the supreme court and why he boycotted the constitutional convention.
I'd say god help us if there were such a gracious overseer of human stupidity.
ps mark - when the federal governement is the largest employer and endless war is the only consistent business of the nation
Deletewith armaments the largest export, is this a democracy, a republic or a a decadent oligarchy!
The shut down isnt even about the ACA - it is about who sits at the boardroom table of the corporate state - you are being manipulated and conditioned by your OWNERS.
http://www.amazon.com/Washington-Rules-Americas-Permanent-American/dp/B0055X4CS8/antiwarbookstore
reaching critical mass for a move to 1705ish then maybe a new high with a loud pop!
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=11&i=p97519477447&a=168141005&r=1380835799793
KS,
ReplyDelete2 observations about the VIX:
1) it looks like it opened above the top Bollinger Band, and may very likely close inside it - bullish for S&P.
2) from a candle perspective, yesterday's the large bullish candle of the VIX price is now being completely shadowed by the large bearish candle of today's VIX price - also bullish for S&P.
Would not just these two factors justify a swing from bearish to bullish for the short term market direction?
TW
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p62371503109&a=312297654&listNum=4
ReplyDeletethe down movement from 1690 to 1670 was a bullish falling wedge (watch the 5 min chart - yesterday).
ReplyDeleteAfter completing at 1670, it points to a rise at 1688-1692 (which has already been executed today).
Next, dear fellows, is a 3 waves move down to 1660-1662 (slightly below the daily wedge support) to be completed today or on Monday, probably with an opening gap down.
GL and have a great week-end!
V.
breakout above 1692 is likely here on a move to at least 1700
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=12&id=p12854999696&a=318198736&listNum=4
I think we close at 1698 but once past 1696 the door is open to moving above 1705
Delete''Next, dear fellows, is a 3 waves move down to 1660-1662 (slightly below the daily wedge support) to be completed today or on Monday, probably with an opening gap down. ''
DeleteFalse!
This conclusion is not valid anymore, the rising wedge was lost by the bears.
Scott, one question please: after 1700-1710 do you see some downside? How low? Thanks.
V.
1692 hard ceiling - you may be right V - the 15min is failing
Deletepretty changeable price action! I still see 1705 but this is a day by day play - bullish still on the 50ma, etc
Deletehold on! STick save passed 1962???? HERE IT COMES! LOL
great analyses V! I agree with lower lows to mid 1600s on tap sooner than many think!
DeleteThanks Arnie, such words coming from you are great!
DeleteBest wishes to you, Scott , KS and all here!
V.
If it's not called Obamacare, you must be a supporter.
ReplyDelete