Keystone's Key Events and Market Movers for Trading the Week of 8/13/12

Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle, sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time.  The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.

Key Dates and Times for the Week Ahead:

·         Keystone’s Comments on the Upcoming Week:  Traders are waiting for Spain to request a formal bailout which should be equity market friendly.  The problem is that saving Spain will result in depleting the rescue funds available to handle the Euro debt crisis and there would be no further money available should contagion strike with other nations especially Italy. Continue watching the 10-year yields for Spain and Italy, the 7% and 6% levels, respectively.  Bank runs and European riot worries remain a concern. Stress tests addressing the Spain situation, performed by an independent auditor, are due this week but these schedules and events are always very fluid and subject to change. The ECB rate decision and press conference is 9/6/12. The European news flow directly dictates global market direction. The Fed drama will take center stage at Jackson Hole on 8/31/12 and then the FOMC meeting, rate decision and press conference on 9/12/12. Congress is on recess (vacation) for about five weeks which is bullish for markets.  Watch for further China easing measures such as lowering triple R’s which will bounce equity markets. Earnings season continues with many second and third tier companies reporting this week.  The trend continues with beats on the bottom line but the top line revenue numbers miss showing that the overall economy remains sick underneath the surface. Companies do not need to hire workers if sales are decreasing. At the same time, firing more workers will boost the bottom line EPS numbers. The Retail Sales number is very important and will dramatically effect Tuesday’s trade.  Also note all the retailers reporting earnings this week, HD, TGT and WMT particularly important. PPI, CPI and Housing Starts all carry heavy weight this week as well. This week is OpEx so Monday’s tend to be bullish, then a period from Tuesday into Wednesday typically experiences a bullish move, and Friday tends to be buoyant for markets.  On the esoteric side, a new moon occurs on Friday evening and markets are typically weak heading into a new moon. The new moon represents the maximum darkness in the month so any potential increase in global military actions would occur from Tuesday thru Saturday.

·         Monday, 8/13/12: Japan GDP overnight is a disappointment-economic growth is decelerating. OpEx Monday’s tend to be buoyant for markets. Earnings: GRPN, HGT, OPXA, PBT, RSOL, SABA, MOBI, TGAL.

·         Tuesday, 8/14/12: V.J. Day (end of WW II)-thank you to all the veterans. NFIB Small Biz Optimism 7:30 AM. PPI and Retail Sales 8:30 AM-markets will react strongly setting the tone for the day. Business inventories 10 AM-markets may experience a stutter step. Markets tend to have a bullish move from a Tuesday low to a Wednesday high during OpEx week. Earnings: ASUR, BOBE, COGO, DKS, EL, TINY, HD, JDSU, MCOX, PEIX, PLUG, SKS, VAL, TJX, TOPS.

·         Wednesday, 8/15/12: Mortgage Purchase Applications 7 AM. Spanish stress test results are due from independent auditor (but these schedules are changed often so status on these tests are unknown). Empire State Manufacturing Index and CPI 8:30 AM.  TIC data 9 AM. Industrial Production 9:15 AM. Housing Market Index 10 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM.  Markets tend to be weak into the new moon. Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks 8 PM.  Earnings: ANF, AMAT, CACI, DE, EXM, GRZ, GV, HOTT, LTD, NTAP, NTES, PRGN, PETM, SHIP, SINA, SPLS, TGT, TRNO, VIP, XUE.

·         Thursday, 8/16/12: Jobless Claims and Housing Starts 8:30 AM. Philly Fed 10 AM. Natty Inventories 10:30 AM. Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM.  Earnings: ARO, BONT, DLTR, GME, GPS, HPOL, PRGO, ROST, SHLD, SFUN, BKE, WMT.

·         Friday, 8/17//12: OpEx. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM. Leading Indicators 10 AM. Expect a market pivot point at 10 AM. New Moon. Earnings: APP, ANN, ATPG, FL, SJM.

·         Wednesday, 8/22/12: Existing Home Sales 10 AM. FOMC Minutes 2 PM.

·         Thursday, 8/23/12: Jobless Claims and New Home Sales 10 AM.

·         Friday, 8/24/12: Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM.

·         Tuesday, 8/28/12: Consumer Confidence 10 AM.

·         Friday, 8/31/12: Consumer Sentiment 10 AM. Jackson Hole Fed drama begins-listen for news from Chairman Bernanke hinting at QE3, or not. EOM.

·         Monday, 9/3/12: U.S. Markets are Closed in Observance of Labor Day. Eurozone Finance Ministers.

·         Tuesday, 9/4/12: U.S. Markets Reopen for Trading.

·         Thursday, 9/6/12: ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference—Draghi drama. 

·         Tuesday, 9/11/12: Anniversary of U.S. Terrorism Attacks. Banking Union Proposals. 

·         Wednesday, 9/12/12: FOMC Rate Decision and Press Conference—Bernanke drama. German vote on the ESM (European Safety Mechanism). AAPL releases new iPad details.