The push in retail is what moved the indexes higher. For today, watch the retail sector, RTH, now at 107.82, only 20 pennies above the 107.62, which Keystone's proprietary algoirthm identifies as the line between bulls and bears. A drop under 107.62 will weaken the broad markets today, thus, the bulls will only be able to move higher if the RTH stays above 107.62.
The Europe/Greece vote last night was anti-climactic. Vote went as everyone expected. Markets already moved up for four days so it appears to be baked into the cake, considering the red futures.
Chairman Bernanke will hold the second 'Desk" Conference today. If the Chairman walks on stage and then sits behind a desk again, well, that is just too much. Laughter all around.
FDX earnigns beat, and the guidance looks to be about a dime better for the year, so this popped the futures, but some of the excitement has worn off.
FOMC decision is 12:30 PM, no change expected, the press conference is 2:15 PM. Watch oil inventories at 10:30 AM as a possible market pivot point. MLHR furniture indicator will be interesting.
NYA moved back above the 40 week MA. The market bulls are trying to prevent the indexes from falling into a secular bear market with all their might. NYA, now at 8156; the 40 week MA now at 8049. Watch this NYA 40 week MA cross, and the RTH level above, today, and this will tell you the direction of the broad markets.
For the SPX for today, if the market bulls can touch a 1298 handle, the indexes are going to pop a lot higher, SPX will probably move up to grab 1307. The bears need to push down to a 1278 handle to make any real noise. The futures are not that red. If the bears cannot get to 1278, and the bulls cannot get to 1298, the day will be some sideways slop. Use the SPX:VIX ratio today as well, the 68 level, above and bulls are happy, below and bears are happy.
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