SOX is printing a 411 handle, well under the 418.50 the market bulls need. Ditto CRB, at 307-ish well under the 311.75 the bulls need. Whoa, copper is receiving a slap down. JJC now printing 48.29, this is important. Keystone's algorithm identifies JC 48.30 as the line in the sand currently. This action will determine today's broad market direction. If JJC moves up, the markets move up, down and the markets move down.
The SPX magic number for bears is 1395.73. The LOD is 1396.89 so the bears have not made a real attempt at accelerating the downside. Tech is not leading the downside since AAPL is flat so the bears do not have oomph. If JJC loses 48.30 you should see strong downside oomph appear. For the SPX 30-minute chart, price collapsed thru the bottom rail of the channel at 1401-ish, bearish. The 8 MA is moving lower; we will see over the next hour or two if the 8 MA stabs down thru the 34 MA to confirm the downside, or not. Keystone shorted more HD. Factory Orders in a few minutes. JJC now at 48.40 so the bulls stopped the 48.30 failure, for now. Keep watching JJC 48.30 and SPX 1395.73.
Note Added 5/2/12 at 10:43 AM: Note that JJC failed the 48.30 level at 10:00 AM. This ushered in further market weakness and causes the SPX to drop under the critical 1395.73 level for today which should accelerate the downside. SPX, however, bounced off the 1394 support, remember how it bounced here on Friday. Losing the 1394 level is a big deal and would allow the bears to run. AAPL is up a buck preventing tech from leading lower so the markets languish. SPX now exploring back above 1395.73 as of ten minutes ago. As long as JJC stays under 48.30, the market bears remain in good shape today. JJC now printing 48.22. Markets typically do not bottom on Wednesday's so if this downside day remains in place, down about ten handles on the SPX, there should be a lower print tomorrow morning. The full moon is Friday night into Saturday so market buoyancy would be the preference for markets moving towards the weekend. Thus, if the markets sell off today, that move may continue into tomorrow late morning or lunch time, then perhaps market buoyancy from Thursday afternoon into the Friday close. There is a long day ahead, however. Utes are finally showing red after a three week upside orgy.
Note Added 5/2/12 at 10:55 AM: Pop, that is the sound of the bears balloon bursting. JJC just popped back above 48.30, now printing 48.31. In the next few minutes you will see whether it is a simple back kiss, that would result in failure and a leg lower for markets, or, the market bulls fight back keeping JJC above 48.30 and wrestling back market control for the day ahead.........48.36....bulls are wrestling back control. Looks like today's drama will continue around the JJC 48.30 level, the market bulls are winning again, for now.
Note Added 5/2/12 at 11:28 AM: JJC Bid Price 48.29; Ask Price 48.31. Yep, this would be the fight today, JJC 48.30. A decision should be coming. CRB has a 305 handle now.
Note Added 5/2/12 at 11:43 AM: For the SPX 30-minute chart, the 8 MA just stabbed down thru the 34 MA, bearish moving forward. JJC is 48.34, however, so the bulls are fighing back hard. The bears only need four more pennies with JJC and the markets will move lower again.
Note Added 5/2/12 at 12:28 PM: Monday the markets tumble lower but recover. Tuesday the markets explode higher but fade lower. Wednesday the markets tumble lower but recover. Do you see a pattern? Markets simply traveling sideways in front of the Friday jobs number. JJC now at 48.44 fourteen cents above market danger now, the bulls proud of their recovery thus far today. But, at the same time, the SPX 30-minute chart shows the 8 MA under the 34 MA, bearish. SOX is moving upwards now three points away from the 318.50. VIX has a 16 handle at 16.96, under 17 makes bulls happy. Nasdaq and RUT are green, Dow Industrials and SPX red. The sideways action continues, simply keep an eye on JJC 48.30 today (where the bears will win), and SOX 418.75 (where the bulls win).
Note Added 5/2/12 at 3:20 PM: The sideways day motors along. JJC is above 48.30 now printing 48.43 favoring the bulls. SOX is at 416.37, two points under 418.50 favoring the bears. Hence, the markets drift along sideways. One of these two have to change their mind and the markets will move in that direction. This set-up continues unitl one side wins so continue watching them. The SPX 30-minute chart shows the 8 MA under the 34 MA which is bearish but the 8 MA has curled up again, and price recovered after the opening drop today to line out sideways. Even the 8 and 34 MA's are now lining out sideways. CRB is at 304 and had dipped into 303 so the bears have something to smile about with this well under the 311.75 level the bulls need to see. The 10-year yield is 1.92% unchanged since this morning. Today, considering the sideways nature of markets all week long thus far, is worthy of the ole Wall Street adage, 'today was a waste of a clean shirt and cab fare'. The CHK shenanigans are weighing on the natty gas sector today. Natty Inventories are at 10:30 AM EST tomorrow morning.
Note Added 5/2/12 at 3:40 PM: Volatility, VIX, sneaks above 17 setting up a fight at the 50-day MA at 17.05, above and bears will be happy, below and bulls will be happy. AAPL in a fight with its 50-day MA at 582.93. Current print is 583.80, less than a buck away. Price tested this support at 3:10 PM and bounced, watch to see if Apple moves lower to test the 583 again. JJC not budging but look at semi's launching. SOX shooting upwards now at 417.14 working towards the bull magic number at 418.50. SOX now at 417.43........
Note Added 5/2/12 at 4:02 PM: SOX pulling back after the late day drive higher, note how that mini strength move in semi's carried the markets higher. All the parameters mentioned above remain as is so the markets float out sideways. AAPL closed above the 50-day MA, Apple buoyancy today keeping the Nasdapple elevated so the bears could not gain any downside traction. ECB is in the morning. The big fight tomorrow will be JJC 48.30 versus SOX 418.50, two will enter, one will exit. Market bears will win with lower JJC, bulls win with higher SOX. The actual levels may be slightly tweaked by the time the open comes around but the change would likely only be by pennies.
What makes JJC 48.30 so critical? Is it major support/resistance? Chart would be great.
ReplyDeleteHello Unknown, the sector (copper) and level, 48.30, is continuously calculated by Keystone's proprietary algo. The algorithm identifies the sector or sectors that will impact the broad indexes to the greatest extent, it is all done thru mathematics. This is why some days Keystone talks about the SOX being improtant, some days CRB, etc... It all depends on what the algo says is most important.
ReplyDeleteToday was interesting since going into the open the SOX 418.75 and CRB 311.75 were key, but copper shot to the forefront and is now key for today.
Unfortunately, there is no way any of the readership can choose these sectors and levels, it took years for Keystone to develop the algo, Keybot the Quant, and all this methodology will remain under lock and key. Thus, as long as Keystone enjoys providing the information it will continue. So, keep watching JJC 48.30 for today. The market bulls are gaining footing now with JJC at 48.34.
Notice the JJC at 48.38 , 8 cents into the bull ring, and notice the red all over the indexes as we drop lower. 48.30 is our number, over that and...wait...LOL
ReplyDelete[Troll ID 20120403]
DeleteI'm thinking just like the KS now (were looking at the same thing) I was just about to buy SOXL but I overrode the signal because of the 8/34 cross and the ROC trend line is broken the up move is only throw back. Need the ROC 12 over 0.00 before SOX does anything...
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SOX&p=30&b=5&g=0&id=p57558913026&a=264721891
The way I figured the SOXL was its DOA when the price goes to the 250MA on 30MIN why move nearly 40K for a $300 up move.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SOXL&p=30&b=5&g=0&id=p30677369872&a=265937951
SOXL thinking is expensive at 36.54 the signal was valid perhaps I should have taken it another error on the side of caution if the ROC line breaks. GDX is looking like its ready to on a binge.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=30&b=5&g=0&id=p93659272911&a=265935143
Remember kids APPL is the markets. And with it surging now at it's all time "high" for the day so rally the markets.
ReplyDelete[Troll ID 20120413]
DeleteJust put a bid in @ .14 for 10 weekly calls 46.50 GDX
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHello MCAP, GDX is setting up with positive divergence but the weekly chart is not there yet. The daily chart may create a pop but the weekly may want to explore this lower level a couple more weeks, price dropped under the 200-week MA. 42-45 area may be an attractive entry area, if it occurs. ENOC looks real good for a bounce now, both weekly and daily charts want to form a bottom in here. Perhaps 5.8-6.0 may be an attractive entry area.
ReplyDeleteI concur GDX weekly chart just isn't right but instead of buying it outright I figure its good enough to be involved so I took some calls same with PAAS and couple others...
ReplyDelete15:53:41 MAY 18 '12 20 Call Option PAAS BOT 10 0.15 CBOE 7.24
15:42:18 Stock ENOC BOT 100 5.97 ISLAND 1.00
13:28:58 MAY 04 '12 46.5 Call Option GDX BOT 10 0.14 CBOE 7.24
15:50:11 Stock CEP BOT 500 2.18 ARCA 2.50
Hello Keystone, the tech sector has been leading the market rally till like march/april. Is the momo still strong for the tech sector moving forward? Seems like AAPL is having support at the 50-day MA. Hope you can provide some insights on XLK, NASDAQ & AAPL. Thanks for your time.
ReplyDeleteCheers, AJ
Hello AJ, tech, Apple and the Nasdapple all continue to place a rolling top and roll over along with the general markets. At this juncture a sideways to sideways lower bias would be expected moving forward but we will watch daily to see how it unfolds.
ReplyDeleteYep, the AAPL 50-day MA will be important again today, it is at 583-ish. Note how the 20-day MA is sloping down, that would be very bearish if the 20 slices down thru the 50. Overall, the tech money was likely made already this year. Tech is strongest in Q4, this year that rippled into Q1, considering this, as well as the summer period being very slow for tech, traders should continue to hit the sell button as thoughts of a visit to the beach occur.
For the near term, and as a good indicator overall, watch the semiconductors since they are a leading sector. Chips are in everything so if semi's are doing well, the bulls are partying, if the demand for chips continues to leak lower, that does not foretell good news for tech land.
Watch SOX 418.50 level. Market and tech bulls will throw confetti if the semi's overtake this level, but bears will create negativity as long as the SOX stays under 418 and leaks lower.
Thank you Keystone for the detailed reply.
DeleteCheers, AJ