Tuesday, January 3, 2012

European Bond Yields 1/3/12

Taking a look at European bond yields to start the new year of trading:

10-Year Yield:
Greece 34.75%
Portugal 13.54%
Italy 6.86%
Spain 5.14%
Belgium 4.25%
France 3.31%
U.K. 2.01%
Germany 1.93%
U.S. 1.93%

Checking the inversion on the Italy yield curve:
Italy 2-year 4.62%
Italy 5-year 5.90%
Italy 10-year 6.86%

The Italy 10-year is back under 7%, albeit by a hair.  Spain has moved flat the last few days. France begins the year at 3.31%.  Keystone is using a 3.3% or higher yield to indicate trouble with our French friends. Germany, the U.K. and U.S. are all about 2% or lower.  Note the Italy yield curve.  A month ago the 2-year was over 8% and the yield curve across the 2-5-10 was inverted indicating that Italy is in recession. Note the big drop in yield for the Italy 2-year, from over 8% to now under 5% which prevents the yield curve inversion.  Time will tell if this relationship holds. Truly amazing to see these markets move in such huge swings in short time frames.

U.S. futures markets are set to open in one hour, at 6 AM EST.

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