Sunday, November 3, 2013
Keystone's Trading Week in Review and Key Events and Market Movers Ahead 11/3/13
On Friday, 10/25/13, the Nikkei dumps -3% and the Shangha Index loses -1.5%. Copper is weak on worries that the China and Japan economies are slumping and China may tighten credit. Samsung reports record profits as consumers prefer the lower-cost electronics. German IFO business confidence is 107.4 slightly below expectations. The euro remains elevated at 1.3820 with a high today at 1.3833. The euro strength is hurting earnings for European stocks. Renault misses earnings estimates and drops -4%. Volvo misses and is punished -7%. Both are negatively affected by Indian, Russian and Swiss currency exchange rates. BBVA (Spanish bank) eliminates its dividend to help clean up the balance sheet and lower the bad loan ratio. Gucci, a Kering brand, reports the worst sales in 4 years. High-end consumers now prefer more subtle-looking bags and accessories rather than logo-riddled products. The higher euro decreases Asian tourism and takes a bite out of luxury sales. U.K. GDP is +0.8% as expected. Merkel says trust with the U.S. must be rebuilt. France’s Hollande voices concern over the U.S. spying on friendly governments. WTIC oil is 97.27 well off the recent highs with Brent oil at 106.75. PG earnings are on in line. Global shipping bellwether UPS earnings beat by a penny showing stronger domestic growth and expects another record holiday package-shipping season. AMZN is up +9% despite reporting a 9 cent loss. In these bizarre markets, just think how far AMZN would bounce if even more money was lost. The broad indexes move higher after the opening bell with the SPX testing the recent all-time highs at 1758-1759. Durable Goods Orders are up on aircraft orders but business spending on office equipment is weak. Consumer Sentiment is weaker than expected but traders ignore any bad news. Representative Rand Paul (son of the legendary libertarian Ron Paul), threatens to block the Yellen nomination as a means to receive an audit of the Federal Reserve. Equities soften for a few minutes but quickly recover since everyone knows the Federal Reserve books will always be kept secret and hidden from the American people, and Yellen will be confirmed. The broad indexes stumble sideways during the session and receive a late-day push higher for the SPX to print a new all-time intraday high at 1759.82 and new all-time closing high at 1759.77. The Dow is at 15570 moving through a sideways range of 14700-15700 for the last 6 months. The Dow Industrials, representing 30 large blue-chip stocks, are lagging the other major indexes not able to print new all-time highs. The RUT small caps printed a new all-time intraday high by pennies but could not print a new all-time closing high. For the week, the SPX is up +0.9%, Dow up 1.1%, Nasdaq +0.7% and RUT +0.3%. In strong bull markets, tech and small caps should be leading not lagging. The S&P 500 is now trading over 16.5 times earnings which is above the historical market average at 15.8. The high-flying momentum stocks such as NFLX and TSLA were hit this week. The 10-year yield is 2.51%. Margin debt jumps 5% over the last month as traders take on more and more leverage chasing the stock market higher just like the 2000 and 2007 market tops. Equity prices for the major indexes are extended above their moving averages across monthly, weekly and daily charts, as well as tagging the upper standard deviation boundaries, indicating that a reversion to the mean (lower prices) is desperately needed. The low CPC and CPCE put/call ratio’s and low volatility (VIX) verify the complacency and fearlessness of traders. Everyone expects easy money QE to continue to March and later so why worry and instead, everyone is ‘partying like its 1999’, as Prince says. Snowden, the NSA whistleblower, now exiled in Russia, provided the documents that verify the U.S. spying on 35 world leaders and how senior officials were told to share their cell phone contacts so foreign politicians could be monitored by the NSA surveillance systems. U.S. foreign relations are damaged. All your communications and actions on computers and cell phones are continuously monitored, recorded and archived a la 1984 (George Orwell).
On Saturday, 10/26/13, further fallout in Germany-U.S. relations continues due to the NSA spying program since Merkel may have been under surveillance since 2002. German officials arrive in the U.S. to address the situation. Thousands of American citizens rally against the NSA mass surveillance program in Washington. The movement is called ‘Stop Watching Us’ and website is stopwatching.us. A statement from Edward Snowden, the whistleblower that uncovered the NSA spying on all American citizens, is read to the crowd. Folks are concerned over their loss of liberty and the blatant disregard for the American Constitution. Picket signs support Snowden with messages such as “Thank You Edward Snowden.” Folks are fighting back against Big Brother a la 1984. The Financial Times (FT) posts an article, “This is no time to get off the equity train.” Protests over bus fares in Brazil escalate into violence with buses and buildings set ablaze and people injured. The Obamacare debacle continues. Folks across all income levels are concerned that their health insurance premiums are increasing. Other folks are receiving letters that they are dropped from their existing plans so they will have no choice but to sign up for Obamacare violating President Obama’s promise “if you like your health plan, you can keep it.”
On Sunday, 10/27/13, Obamacare problems and worries continue as the web site goes completely down due to a network failure. SNL (Saturday Night Live), a popular Saturday night television comedy show in the States, spoofs HHS Secretary Sebelius and the Obamacare debacle. Jon Stewart, an outspoken liberal comedian that always defends the democratic viewpoint, and other late-night comedians, continue to poke fun at the Obamacare folly. The worry is that these comedy shows hold a strong 18 to 40 year old demographic, the very people that the president needs to sign up to pay for Obamacare, and the negative press will hurt the enrollment, as well as a dysfunctional web site that frustrates the tech-savvy young folks. Europe is outraged over the U.S. NSA spying scandal. The Whitehouse is trying to tone down the concerns. Der Spiegel runs a headline ‘Das Nest’ referencing the roof at the American Embassy in Berlin as a nest of NSA listening stations. BOJ pledges to continue monetary easing moving forward. 44 children, near the Fukishima nuclear disaster, have developed thyroid cancer. One million people developed cancer, leukemia and other radiation-based health ailments from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster 27 years ago and Fukishima will likely follow suit. The main stream media ignores the tragedy.
On Monday, 10/28/13, China Construction Bank profits are in line. Beijing air quality is so poor that folks must stay indoors. Dollar/yen 97.65. U.K. braces for the worst storm in 5 years. The eruo is 1.3807. MRK beats on earnings but misses on the top line revenue. Guidance is slightly raised but the stock sells off -1.5% pre-market. Many analysts are now considering 1900 targets for the SPX next year. Economics Professor Jeremy Siegel, correct on his market bullish call for this year, continues the bull mantra, saying the Dow will finish this year between 16K and 17K, and to buy, buy, buy. This anecdotal evidence verifies the complacency in the markets shown by the low CPC and CPCE put/call ratio’s, low VIX and low bearish sentiment in surveys (typically identifying a significant market top in place). A Blackrock executive dumps more stock as other high-level insiders in other stocks lighten up on their holdings as well. Liquidity is pushing the stock market higher (QE) not fundamentals and many insiders are taking the easy money profits off the table before it falls apart. The broad indexes are flat to up as the new week of trading begins. The SPX punches out new all-time intraday highs. Pending Home Sales are weaker than expected indicating softer housing numbers in the weeks ahead but traders are drunk on the Fed wine believing that QE tapering will not occur until after March 2014. The broad indexes are pumped to a new all-time high at 1764.99 and new all-time closing high at 1762.11. The Dow, Nasdaq and RUT all end the day negative. The Dow Transportation Index, Trannies, print new all-time highs at 7061. High-flyers such as TSLA, NFLX, YELP and FB continue to sell off. 10-year yield is flat at 2.51%. After the bell, AAPL earnings beat on top and bottom lines with sales robust in all categories, however, the margins are dropping. Apple forecasts the slowest holiday sales in 5 years. AAPL drops -3% on the news but then recovers to the flat line in AH’s trading. 70% of the stocks in the equities markets are in overbot territory which typically identifies market tops. President Obama’s Twitter handle is hacked with links provided to Syrian web sites. Global backlash against the NSA spying continues to gather legs with Spain now requesting answers from the U.S. concerning the tapping of their communications. The Obamacare fiasco grows as folks are complaining about losing their doctors and current health care when the president had promised this would not happen. Sticker shock is occurring as many Americans face big increases to premiums and older folks are forced to buy coverage’s such as maternity and pre-natal care when they will obviously never need it. The numbers continue to be sketchy since the Whitehouse will not provide information but it appears that over 80% of the folks signing up for health care are in need of health care with existing ailments while the young healthy folks, that must pay for the new program, are signing up only in very limited numbers. The higher Obamacare costs (also a broken promise since the president said no one’s premiums would increase—in fact he said the premiums would drop) and changes to the food stamp program may dampen the holiday spending mood, despite relief at the gas pump.
On Tuesday, 10/29/13, India’s Infosys pays fines to settle litigation on visa violations. India raises interest rates to combat inflation. European banks are selling off. Regulators blindside UBS telling the bank to hold more capital due to litigation costs and drops -6%. DB must also set aside more funds to handle litigation, similar to JPM’s woes, and it drops -3%. BP beats on earnings and raises the divvy so it is rewarded +3%. The euro is 1.378. Several European companies are lowering earnings estimates due to currency concerns. Draghi will have to intervene to lower the euro. President Obama considers a halt to the NSA spying on Allies but everyone knows the spying will never end. The German parliament in Berlin would like to hear more details about the U.S. spying program from Edward Snowden. News reports say the Obama Administration knew that millions would not be allowed to keep their existing health insurance but the president promised otherwise in his speeches to gain support for the program. Supporters of Obamacare are now turning into dissenters since their premiums are increasing. Congress hears testimony, for the first time ever, concerning an alleged U.S. drone strike on civilians. A Pakistani family details the strike which killed the mother of the family one year ago. Retail Sales are a touch weak. CMI reports weak earnings since diesel engine and truck sales are slipping. GT, a key rubber and economic bellwether, reports weak results. FOMC 2-day meeting begins. Equities leap higher at the opening bell. The bulls appear unstoppable with the SPX jumping to new all-time highs near 1769. Consumer Confidence is far weaker than expected dropping almost 9 points to 71.2, however, traders believe any weak data means more Fed easy money crack cocaine so the stock market moves higher. Traders become giddy pulsing markets higher expecting more happy QE Infinity news from the Fed tomorrow. At 11:23 AM, the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMPQ) stops updating due to a computer glitch but the individual stocks in the index are trading. At 12:40 PM, the Nasdaq begins updating again. The frozen price is blamed on a data service feed problem and human error involving the Global Index Data Service (GIDS 2.0). IBM increases its share buy-back so this creates a +2% pop in the stock and a bounce of over 30 points in the Dow Industrials. JPM’s legal settlement deal may fall apart causing traders to pause but the happiness resumes in quick order. The broad indexes end the day at new all-time highs for the SPX, Dow, Trannies and RUT. The SPX reaches a new all-time high at 1772.09 and new all-time closing high at 1771.95. The Dow prints a new all-time closing high at 15680.35 (but not a new all-time intraday high). The RUT prints a new all-time high at 1122.64 and new all-time closing high at 1121.96. The Trannies (TRAN) print a new all-time high at 7064.67 and a new all-time closing high at 7051.80. There is no fear at all in the markets. TSLA trades lower after a video surfaces of another Model S catching fire on 11/17/13 in Merida, Mexico. After the bell, LNKD, the darling of social media, reports weak results. In the evening, the cable news channels are in wall-to-wall coverage about how President Obama lied to the American people for the last 3 years knowing that millions would lose their health coverage but telling them they would not. In an odd twist of fate for the Obamacare folly, more people have been told they lost their health coverage than people that have signed up for Obamacare.
On Wednesday, 10/30/13, onion prices in India have tripled over the last year creating political angst. Copper, commodity and Asian markets move higher. BIDU results are strong and it jumps +6%. European markets climb one-half percent. Barclay reports weak investment banking numbers but traders are content with the in-line results and the stock pops +3%. The bulls keep running with S&P futures +4. HHS Secretary Sebelius testifies befor eth eHouse concerning the Obamacare debacle. ADP Employment Report is a paltry 130K jobs which is not even enough to employ the new workers entering into the work force each month. Traders are happy to see weak data since it means more Fed QE and a higher stock market ahead. Hedge fund manager Larry Fink says markets are in bubble territory and the Fed needs to begin tapering. HHS Secretary Sebelius testifies before the House concerning the Obamacare web site debacle. Ironically, the Obamacare web site is down the whole time she testifies. Sebelius says she takes responsibility and should be held accountable but does not plan on resigning so the words do not mean anything. She says the web site will be fixed and fully functional by 11/30/13, only 31 days away. Sebelius promised enrollment numbers today but continues to refuse to provide the data saying it is unreliable. The broad indexes jump higher at the opening bell but run out of gas and leak lower into lunch time. PIMCO’s Gross says “all asset prices are bubbly.” The FOMC Meeting Announcement is as expected; the Fed continues the 85 billion per month purchase program without changes. Equities immediately spike higher but the headline statement is followed by the Fed saying ‘labor market conditions show some improvement’ and ‘downside risks to the outlook have diminished’. The Fed also does not mention the government shutdown so the overall tone on the economy is more positive than anticipated (thus, less QE, not more, and now traders are thinking a December or January taper may be possible). Markets quickly reverse and sell off. The Dow drops over -100 points but recovers. The dollar pops and euro drops. Commodities and copper weaken on the stronger dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield jumps from 2.48% to 2.52% then to 2.54% which chases the utility sector lower. At the bell, the SPX is down 9 points, -0.5% to 1763. The Dow loses 61 points, -0.4%, to 15619. The Nasdaq drops 22 points, -0.6%, to 3931. The RUT is crushed 16 points, -1.5%, to 1105. Tech and small caps lead lower. After the bell, V misses on earnings. SBUX misses on earnings due to weak China sales and drops -3%. FB earnings are stellar, however, the tween participation on FaceBook is dropping off dramatically. Anecdotally, young people now refer to the popular social site as MomBook. Mobile ad revenue continues to grow which is a big plus despite the loss of teen interest. FB pops +18% on the headline earnings but drops back to the flat line during the conference call. President Obama speaks on Obamacare and promises to fix the situation. C and JPM currency traders are placed on leave when it is discovered they colluded through instant messaging for 3 years exchanging internal information and potentially rigging the Forex markets. A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows a large drop in President Obama’s approval rating with only 42% of the country in favor of his actions (the lowest level for his presidency thus far) while over one-half of the country now disapproves of his actions. 70% of the country now says the U.S. is on the wrong track forward. The 3 years of lying about allowing folks to keep their current health insurance and doctors is hurting the presidents credibility. NSA Director General Alexander denies it is accessing American citizen’s information through back doors at the GOOG, YHOO and other servers.
On Thursday, 10/31/13, EOM. Happy Halloween. Asian markets sell off in response to the weaker U.S. markets. Bad debt on China’s bank balance sheets continues increasing. Beijing’s tourism drops 50% this year due to the nasty air pollution. The BOJ meets and plans to continue stimulus measures without changes which helps the Asian markets slightly recover. The BOJ also upgrades GDP estimates moving forward despite a higher sales tax. Sony cuts profit forecasts. German retail sales and confidence data falls. Eurozone inflation is under one percent. Eurozone unemployment rate remains above 12%. With no sign of inflation and unemployment high, analysts are now looking for a potential rate cut at the next ECB meeting Thursday, 11/7/13. ECB’s Nowotny hints at more stimulus coming in a television interview so the euro weakens to 1.3700 (weaker euro will send the dollar higher and commodities lower). The dollar, USD, moves above 80. Royal Dutch Shell misses on earnings. AB Inbev (Budweiser) beat on earnings but volumes are dropping. XOM beats on earnings but numbers continue to leak lower quarter-on-quarter. Chicago PMI is the highest number since 2011 and the biggest monthly leap higher in over 30 years. Traders are caught off guard by the robust number and now worry that the Fed’s QE easy money may end sooner than March 2014. The markets leak lower into the afternoon. Markets drop into the closing bell coinciding with a large explosion in Syria. The event is an Israeli attack on a Russian missile shipment that was entering the country and destined for Hezbollah. The broad indexes finish the day down about -0.5% with the small caps leading lower. October is the best month for the stock market in 2 years. September and October are both up which has only occurred 5 times in the last 30 years. The Fed’s easy money pumps the stock market higher making the wealthy wealthier. The Fed is the markets. For the month, the SPX is up +4.6%, Dow +2.8%, Nasdaq +3.9%, RUT +2.5%, Trannies +6.0% (big drop in oil) and semiconductors +3.3%. Copper fell -0.5% in October. The euro collapses from over 1.38 one day ago to below 1.36. European stock indexes are at or near 5 year highs.
On Friday, 11/1/13, China PMI is slightly better than expected (18-month high) although smaller manufacturers are clearly struggling. Copper and commodities receive a slight lift. Sony lowers profit forecasts and collapses -12% losing 2 billion in market cap in a heartbeat. Nissan cuts sales forecasts. India gold sales are uncharacteristically slow this year ahead of the Diwali festival 11/3/13. Renault drops -4%. RBS sets up an internal bad bank division to handle toxic assets and bad paper. European banks remain sick since they are unable to implement a Tarp-type policy like the U.S. in 2009. Revolts and riots continue in France over the excessive tax policies. Hollande stands firm on taxing the wealthy, such as soccer stars, despite the disastrous effects. German lawmakers meet with Snowden, the NSA whistleblower, to gather more information on the U.S. spying and potentially offer him a job or have him testify to sort out the extent of the spying; these actions strain U.S.-Germany relations. Snowden would like to testify before Congress if possible. The euro is 1.3530 and the dollar is 80.41. Preliminary information shows that only a shocking miniscule 6 people enrolled into Obamacare via the web site during the first 24 hours of operation. As of 10/3/13 (two days in), approximately 250 enrollment applications had been processed. This number does not add up since the Whitehouse said 6 million visitors had accessed the site by 10/3/13. Each day creates further confusion and now several democrats are distancing themselves from the Obamacare debacle. GOOG, YHOO, RHAT, ORCL and other tech companies offer help to make the web site functional. This is not surprising since the tech companies apparently knew the NSA was accessing their data bases through back doors violating privacy policies but they did nothing (the large tech companies and government are all in bed together). Fed’s Plosser says an opportunity was missed to begin the tapering of QE in September. CVX misses on earnings with profit dropping -6%. The broad indexes open for trading and move sideways. ISM Mfg Index is up strongly. Markets drift lower since good news is bad news (the Fed may begin tapering QE if the economy improves). At 10:36 AM, the Nasdaq OMX Group closes the options exchange due to technical errors. A significant increase in order entries (probably due to HFT) inhibited the system’s ability to handle the option volume or to provide accurate quotes. Trading continues on 11 other options trading platforms. At about 12:30 PM EST, a suicidal, mentally ill man opens fire at LAX (pronounced L-A-ex; the Los Angeles International Airport) killing an airport employee. The incident dominates the news coverage. Wall Street is concerned that the incident is terrorism but this fear quickly subsides. Equities recover as the afternoon moves along and the broad indexes are flat on the day with the SPX and Dow higher, Nasdaq flat and RUT small caps negative. For the week, the SPX is flat at +0.11% squeezing out a new weekly high at 1761.64 with a doji candlestick. The Dow is flat unable to print a new weekly high, about 40 points shy, at 15616. The Nasdaq loses -0.5% this week and the RUT loses -2.0%, a drastic negative change for small caps. The RUT prints an outside reversal week moving higher than the previous week but then closing below, which is typically a bearish signal for markets. Energy stocks are weak with CVX the largest Dow loser. The SPX and Dow are on a 4-week winning streak. U.S. car and truck sales slip in October. Gold and oil drop about -3% this week. The Nadsaq Options Market does not reopen for trading today. After the bell, Berkshire (Buffett) misses on earnings but top line revenue beats. The new iPad sales are strong. RBS suspends two traders in connection with the Forex currency-fixing scandal. Fed’s Plosser says he is more worried about the exit plan from QE (but he is a hawk). The Fed wants the banks to test whether they could survive if the stock market drops 50% in value. Fitch rating agency revises Spain’s debt outlook to stable from negative. China says their submarines in the Pacific Ocean are outfitted with nuclear missiles that can strike American cities.
On Saturday, 11/2/13, China’s Xi says healthy economic growth is ahead. Cuts to the food stamp program begin which will hurt the disadvantaged folks and also companies such as WMT where the food stamps are typically redeemed. The sun has erupted with nearly 30 solar flares over the last week. This sends radiation and electromagnetic waves towards earth that may interrupt communication and other electronic signals. The sun is at solar maximum this year which is the peak of the 11-year solar cycle but the year has been relatively quiet. Is the giant awakening to end the year stronger? Four of the flares are the stronger X-class. Interestingly, solar flare eruptions very often coincide with market selloffs such as the August 2011 waterfall crash. World-wide earthquakes and storms increase over the last month.
On Sunday, 11/3/13, the Obamacare web site is down for maintenance all weekend long. The concern over the healthcare law grows as more and more folks, who voted for the president, feel slighted seeing their premiums double and triple with deductibles increasing. Folks will be forced to pay for such things as maternity care if you are a senior or a man and prostrate coverage if you are a woman. The enrollment of only 6 people on the first day is shameful. Nighttime comedian Jay Leno quips “ there are more people that walked on the moon than signed up for Obamacare.” The enrollment also appears to be weighted towards Medicaid rather than the healthy young folks the program needs to be financially stable. The contractors warned for over 6 weeks prior to the Obamacare roll-out that the site is not ready but the administration kept saying all is fine each day and went ahead with the release anyway. One of the contracts awarded for the Obamacare web site appears to be an Obama family friend that may have received a no-bid contract so Congress plans on investigating. People are disappointed in the president telling folks they can keep their plan for the last 3 years purely so he could get reelected but he apparently knew all along it was untrue. Further, the president will not acknowledge the lie and now says the plans that folks liked, and could afford, are ‘bad plans’. Enrollment numbers are promised by 11/15/13, 12 days away, and the Obamacare web site is supposed to be fixed and fully operational on 11/30/13, only 27 days away. Major Bradley turn date occurs today so a window is open over the following days for a major market move to occur. The turn may have been marked with the Wednesday top. The Bradley does not predict market direction only that a strong move in one direction or the other is likely. The new moon occurs. Markets are typically weak through the new moon. Markets are typically bullish from the last day of the month through the first four days of the new month.
On Monday, 11/4/13, Factory Orders 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Fed’s Powell and Rosengren speak.
On Tuesday, 11/5/13, ISM Non-Mfg Index. Fed’s Lacker and Williams speak. The Twitter IPO (TWTR) is priced.
On Wednesday, 11/6/13, Mortgage Applications. Leading Indicators. Oil Inventories. Fed’s Pianalto speaks. HHS Secretary Sebelius, responsible for the ongoing Obamacare debacle, testifies for the Senate. The Twitter IPO (TWTR) begins trading on the NYSE.
On Thursday, 11/7/13, ECB Rate Decision 7:45 AM EST and Draghi Press Conference 8:30 AM. A rate cut is expected if not today, than at the December meeting, and will drop the euro, pop the dollar, and likely send commodities lower. Chain Store Sales. Challenger Job-Cut Report. GDP. Jobless Claims. Fed’s Stein speaks. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM. Consumer Credit 3 PM.
On Friday, 11/8/13, Monthly Jobs Report (one week delayed). Personal Income and Outlays. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. JOLTS Job Opening Report. Fed’s Lockhart, Bernanke and Williams speak. Chairman Bernanke speaks at 3:30 PM and may impact trading to finish the week.
On Saturday, 11/9/13, ……
On Sunday, 11/10/13, ….
On Monday, 11/11/13, Veteran’s Day. Banks are Closed but Markets are Open.
On Tuesday, 11/12/13, Fed’s Fisher, Kocherlakota and Lockhart speak today. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. 3-Year Note Auction. Keystone’s Eclipse Indicator targets 11/12/13 through 12/10/13 as having potential for a major market selloff to begin.
On Wednesday, 11/13/13, Mortgage Applications. Import and Export Prices. Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations. 10-Year Note Auction. Treasury Budget 2 PM. Chairman Bernanke speaks 7 PM.
On Thursday, 11/14/13, International Trade. Jobless Claims. Productivity and Costs. Fed’s Plosser speaks. Natty Gas Inventories. Oil Inventories (one-day delayed). 30-Year Bond Auction. New Fed Chair Nominee Yellen appears before the Senate Banking Committee.
On Friday, 11/15/13, OpEx. Empire State Mfg Survey. Industrial Production. Wholesale Trade 10 AM will create a market pivot point. The Obama administration provides detailed enrollment numbers for Obamacare.
On Saturday, 11/16/13, ……
On Sunday, 11/17/13, a full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon.
On Monday, 11/18/123, TIC data. Housing Market Index 10 AM. E-Commerce Retail Sales. Fed’s Plosser and Kocherlakota speak.
On Tuesday, 11/19/13, Employment Cost Index. Fed’s Evans speaks. Chairman Bernanke speaks 7 PM EST.
On Wednesday, 11/20/13, BOJ 2-day meeting begins. Mortgage Applications. CPI. Retail Sales. Business Inventories and Existing Home Sales 10AM will create a market pivot point. Oil Inventories. Fed’s Bullard speaks. FOMC Minutes 2 PM will create a market pivot point.
On Thursday, 11/21/13, BOJ rate and policy decision. The BOJ must deliver more QE to weaken the yen to send the Nikkei and U.S. equities higher moving into early 2014. If the BOJ does not deliver the easy money, the yen will strengthen and the Nikkei will sell off. Asian PMI’s. European PMI’s. Fed’s Bullard speaks. Jobless Claims. PPI. Philly Fed. Natty Gas Inventories. 10-Year TIPS Auction.
On Friday, 11/22/13, Kansas City Fed Mfg Index.
On Saturday, 11/23/13, ….
On Sunday, 11/24/13, ….
On Monday, 11/25/13, Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. 2-Year Note Auction.
On Tuesday, 11/26/13, GDP. Housing Starts. FHFA House Price Index. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Richmond Fed Mfg Index. 5-Year Note Auction.
On Wednesday, 11/27/13, Mortgage Applications. Durable Goods Orders. Jobless Claims. Personal Income and Outlays. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM will create a market pivot point. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. Leading indicators. Oil Inventories. Natty Gas Inventories (one-day early). 7-Year Note Auction. Farm Prices. Markets tend to be bullish moving into and through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
On Thursday, 11/28/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of Thanksgiving holiday.
On Friday, 11/29/13, Markets Reopen for Trading but Close Early at 1 PM EST. Today is EOM. Markets are typically bullish from the last day of the month through the first 4 days of the new month.
On Saturday, 11/30/13, ….
On Sunday, 12/1/13, …..
On Monday, 12/2/13, Asia PMI’s. Europe PMI’s. ISM Mfg Index 10 AM which will create a market pivot point. A new moon occurs in the evening. Markets are typically bearish moving through the new moon.
On Tuesday, 12/3/13, Motor Vehicle Sales.
On Wednesday, 12/4/13, Mortgage Applications. ADP Employment Report. International Trade. Productivity and Costs. New Home Sales. ISM Non-Mfg Index. Oil Inventories. Beige Book 2 PM will create a market pivot point.
On Thursday, 12/5/13, ECB Rate Decision 7:45 AM EST and Draghi Press Conference 8:30 AM. A rate cut will drop the euro, pop the dollar, and likely send commodities lower. Chain Store Sales. Challenger Job-Cut Report. Jobless Claims. Factory Orders. Natty Gas Inventories.
On Friday, 12/6/13, Monthly Jobs Report. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. Fed’s Plosser speaks. Consumer Credit.
On Saturday, 12/7/13, ….
On Sunday, 12/8/13, …
On Monday, 12/9/13, ….
On Tuesday, 12/10/13, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. JOLTS Job Openings Report. Wholesale Trade. 3-Year Note Auction.
On Wednesday, 12/11/13, Mortgage Applications. Oil Inventories. 10-Year Note Auction. Treasury Budget 2 PM.
On Thursday, 12/12/13, Jobless Claims. Retail Sales. Import and Export Prices. Business Inventories. Natty Gas Inventories. 30-Year Bond Auction.
On Friday, 12/13/13, PPI. Congress provides a detailed road map to handle the U.S. budget crisis moving forward.
On Saturday, 12/14/13, …
On Sunday, 12/15/13, the initial sign-up period for Obamacare ends for those beginning insurance on 1/1/14. The Whitehouse needs 7 million people (mainly healthy young people) to sign-up by March, otherwise, the program will start bleeding money and require a future bailout by the taxpayers.
During Q4, European bank stress tests will begin and take one year to complete (there are likely 10% of the 128 banks undercapitalized with no clear way on how to recapitalize these troubled institutions). The one-year timeline is chosen to keep stretching things out in the hope that the European economyrecovers before further bad news occurs. Germany’s high court must decide if the ECB’s OMT program is constitutional. Europe must finalize all plans for the new banking union.
On Monday, 12/16/13, Empire State Mfg Index. TIC data. Industrial Production. 2-Year Note Auction.
On Tuesday, 12/17/13, FOMC 2-day meeting begins. Is QE taper talk on the table? CPI. Housing Market Index. 5-Year Note Auction. A full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon.
On Wednesday, 12/18/13, Mortgage Applications. Housing Starts. Oil Inventories. 7-Year Note Auction. FOMC Meeting Announcement and Forecasts 2 PM which will create a market pivot point. Chairman Bernanke Press Conference and Q&A from 2:30 PM to 3:30 PM will move markets.
On Thursday, 12/19/13, BOJ 2-day meeting begins. Jobless Claims. Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Natty Gas Inventories. 5-Year TIPS Auction.
On Friday, 12/20/13, BOJ rate and policy decision. OpEx Quadruple Witching. GDP. Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations. Kansas City Fed Mfg Index.
On Saturday, 12/21/13, ….
On Sunday, 12/22/13, ….
On Monday, 12/23/13, Personal Income and Outlays. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point.
On Tuesday, 12/24/13, Durable Goods Orders. FHFA House Price Index. New Home Sales. Richmond Fed Mfg Index. Markets Close Early for Christmas Eve.
On Wednesday, 12/25/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of Christmas holiday.
On Thursday, 12/26/13, Markets Reopen for Trading. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Oil Inventories.
On Friday, 12/27/13, Natty Gas Inventories.
On Saturday, 12/28/13, …..
On Sunday, 12/29/13, …..
On Monday, 12/30/13, Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. Farm Prices.
On Tuesday, 12/31/13, EOM. EOQ4. EOY2013. S&P Case-Shiller. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM will create a market pivot. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market pivot point.
----------------------------- 2014 ----------------------
On Wednesday, 1/1/14, Markets are Closed in Observance of New Years holiday. A major Bradley turn date occurs where a major market directional move is expected in the 12/23/13 through 1/8/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one way of the other. Another Bradley turns in quick order so the beginning of the year may be a wild ride for the stock market. A new moon occurs. Markets are typically bearish moving through the new moon.
On Thursday, 1/2/14, Asia PMI’s. Europe PMI’s. Markets Reopen for Trading. Motor Vehicle Sales. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Natty Gas Inventories. Oil Inventories (one-day delayed).
On Friday, 1/3/14, …..
On Thursday, 1/9/14, a Bradley turn date occurs where a market directional move is expected in the 1/2/14 through 1/16/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one way of the other.
On Wednesday, 1/15/14, a Continuing Resolution (CR) is needed to fund and keep the U.S. government open.
On Thursday, 1/16/14, a full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon.
On Wednesday, 1/29/14, Chairman Bernanke conducts his last official two-day meeting (1/28 and 1/29) as Chair of the FOMC.
On Friday, 1/31/14, Chairman Bernanke’s term ends at the Fed. New Chair Yellen takes over.
On Friday, 2/7/14, the Debt Ceiling Limit is hit where the U.S. may default on obligations. Treasury Secretary Lew will use extraordinary measures to extend this time forward so late February or early March is a likelier deadline. Winter Olympics begin in Sochi, Russia, through 2/23/14.
On Wednesday, 3/19/14, new Fed Chair Yellen talks at the conclusion of her first FOMC meeting (3/18 and 3/19).
In February/March 2014, the Fed Chair Yellen testifies before Congress.
In March 2014, the ESM is officially “fully operational.” The Euro banking union is in place after delays from January 2013 to January 2014 and now to March 2014.
In April 2014, MSFT no longer supports Windows XP.
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