Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 11/13/13; 10-Year Note Auction

Mortgage Applications are weak for another week. Fed's Pianalto is speaking now. The 10-Year Note Auction is 1 PM. The 10-year yield is 2.74% hitting a high at 2.79% yesterday (reference this morning's charts and technical analysis (TA) for $TNX).  Treasury Budget 2 PM. Chairman Bernanke speaks at 7 PM this evening, of course, after he wipes the gravy stains off his neck tie. Copper is dropping like a stone in early trading sporting a 3.16 handle for a few minutes. Reference this morning's chart that forecasts big trouble for markets if the 3.00-3.20 copper support area fails. Bulls need higher utilities and higher copper to push markets higher. Copper is obviously not cooperating today. Watch UTIL 508.47 and JJC 40.15. The bears need either XLF 20.47 or VIX 14.13 to start the downside selling.

For the SPX today starting at 1768, the bulls need to touch the 1772 handle to accelerate the upside. The bears need to push under 1762.50 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1673-1771 is sideways action. Support below is 1763, 1759, 1752 and 1745. The 8 MA is under the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signalling bearish markets for the hours ahead. The market bears can maintain steady market downside pressure if they keep the SPX under 1766 and heading lower. The futures are very weak this morning with S&P's -9, Dow -90 and Nasdaq -19. Watch UTIL 508.47, JJC 40.15, XLF 20.47, VIX 14.13 and SPX 1762.50 for market direction. Financials are particularly important so pay the most attention to XLF 20.47. Are the dip-buyers ready to run into markets on the long side after the opening bell?

Note Added 10:31 AM:  The dip-buyers rush into the long side tripping over each other in the zest to buy stocks. The broad indexes are flat to negative so far. Price bounced off a LOD at 1760.64 but really could not hold under the 1762 for more that a few minutes. Without the XLF failure, bears got nothing, so the indexes recover. UTIL and JJC remain bearish unable to help the bulls and XLF and VIX remain bullish unable to help the bears. Copper is beaten today. XLF is 20.61 above the 20.47 danger line continuing to create broad market buoyancy. LOD is 20.55 so watch this number. The market bears were only 6 pennies from victory but did not eat enough Wheaties this morning to create the negativity at 20.47, at least not yet. TRIN is 0.67 giving the bulls the nod today. Traders are likely waiting for Yellen's appearance and comments tomorrow. The trading action (sideways) is very much like the typical action that occurs leading into a Fed meeting. As Sonny and Cher would sing, the beat goes on. 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.