Tuesday, November 26, 2013

XJY Japanese Yen Weekly Chart Sideways Channel and Symmetrical Triangle

Banzai!! Simply look at the purple box for the last 5 weeks to see why the Nikkei and U.S. stock markets are running higher. The BOJ is printing money even faster than the Fed, bludgeoning the yen. The weaker yen fuels the upside in Japan and U.S. equities. The blue sideways symmetrical triangle resolves with a collapse to the downside. Weaker yen means the dollar/yen moves higher as well as stocks. The lower target based on the triangle pattern is 92-95, however, the stochastics are already oversold and the chart indicators do not share the downside enthusiasm. Typically, the indicators would be signaling more weakness to attain the lower triangle targets. The same triangle formation is on the NIKK, DXJ and other Japan-related charts. The brown sideways channel range is 97-107. The greater expectation would be for price to seek a bottom in this 96-99 zone instead of fulfilling the triangle target, however, the lower targets must be respected.

The ADX at 20 and higher from late last year through this summer verifies the strong downward trend in the yen but the ADX at 15 now says there is no longer a strong downward trend. As the days and weeks move along, and if price matches the May lows sub 97.50, watch the thin green neon lines. With the lower price low, it is likely that positive divergence will be in place and the indicators will not violate the thin green lines. This will set up a bounce in the yen which corresponds to lower Japan and U.S. equity markets. Long traders have been tripping over themselves to buy Japan as the yen weakens again over the last month and they are reaping rewards with plays such as the DXJ fave that many money managers tout, however, this trade may not have the life that everyone expects. Traders are likely looking forward to another downside yen orgy like 2012 into 2013, which fueled the huge U.S. stock market advance this year, but the chart is not agreeable to this outcome.

Projection is for a basing in the yen at 95-99 and recovery moving forward for the weeks ahead. The BOJ will surely announce more money printing measures to try and beat it lower but they likely received the greatest bang for their buck earlier this year. If the yen weakens, the dollar/yen pair moves higher and stocks move higher. If the yen strengthens, the dollar/yen pair moves lower and stocks move lower. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.