Saturday, November 16, 2013
Keystone's Trading Week in Review and Key Events Ahead for Global Markets 11/16/13
On Friday, 11/8/13, China exports rebound. Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda), the strongest storm to ever hit land fall, a Category 5 storm, hits the Philippines with 200 MPH winds and 20-foot storm surges. IAG (British Airways and Iberia Airlines) profit doubles and 3100 jobs are cut so the stock jumps +5%. S&P rating agency cuts France’s credit rating to AA from AA+ based on weak growth ahead. It should not have been a surprise but it is with the 10-year bond yield jumping to 2.39%. France finance minister Moscovici says he ‘regrets the critical and inaccurate S&P decision’. Hollande defends the French policies. Draghi’s rate cut yesterday may have been due in part to him knowing the that the S&P rating cut on France was imminent. The eruo is 1.3419. The health of the Slovenian banking system is worsening. European markets trade lower. At 4:30 AM, S&P futures are +5 with the Dow +21 and Nasdaq +12 recovering off yesterday’s big selloff. C says the equity markets should rally another +13% by the end of 2014 which would place the SPX at 1975. What are they smoking? Perhaps they will be correct? The Monthly Jobs Report surprises to the upside with 204 K jobs but the unemployment rate ticks up to 7.3%. The prior months’ job numbers are revised upwards. Oddly, average hours worked drops so companies actually do not need to hire anyone if they cannot keep the existing employees busy. The labor participation rate prints another low and for blacks, the participation rate is the lowest number in over 30 years. Wages remains flat. Inflation will not occur when wage growth remains deflationary. Futures drop on the news with the S&P’s -6, Dow -60 and Nasdaq -6 since traders worry that the Fed will now taper QE sooner rather than later. This is confirmed by the 10-year yield catapulting higher from 2.61% to 2.72%. The futures recover towards the flat line ahead of the opening bell. MCD sales are in line with expectations. GPS jumps +7% on improving retail sales outperforming all the negative prognostications. The broad indexes begin the day moving sideways with upward buoyancy. Consumer Sentiment is 72.0 the lowest initial read on sentiment since March. Sad consumers tend to not spend as much during the holiday retail season. The broad indexes gain strength to the upside with the S&P’s up 14 and Dow up 82. The utilities, telecom and home builder sectors are beaten down due to higher yields. The 10-year yield is 2.75%. Dip-buyers enter the market in force undaunted by yesterday’s selling and launch markets higher into the weekend. The broad indexes recover all the losses from yesterday. This is not surprising since the uber market complacency remains as identified by the low put/call ratios. The SPX gains 23 points, +1.3%, to 1771. The Dow gains 168 points, +1.1%, to 15761.78, printing a new all-time closing high but not an all-time intraday high. The Nasdaq gains 62 points, +1.6%, to 3919. The RUT gains 21 points, +1.9%, to 1100. Financials lead higher with the XLF up +2.3%. For the week, the SPX is up +0.5%, the Dow +0.9%, Nasdaq -0.1% and RUT +0.4%. VIX is under 13. The CPCE put/call ratio is a low 0.51 continuing to signal rampant complacency and a significant market top forming or at hand. TWTR loses -7% on its second day of trading. After the bell, Chairman Bernanke says ‘the unemployment rate probably understates the degree of slack in the labor market’. Jeff Zients, charged with fixing the Obamacare web site, says progress is “very slow” and is a “long way from where it needs to be.” The Whitehouse is backing away from the promise to have a fully functioning Obamacare web site by the end of the month. The president is taking more and more criticism over his half-hearted apology yesterday. President Obama backs a plan to raise the minimum wage from $7.25 per hour to $10 per hour. An AAPL iPad catches fire at a Vodaphone store. Apple is given the burnt iPad so they can analyze the problem.
On Saturday, 11/9/13, Super Typhoon Haiyan kills over 100 people creating mass destruction across the Philippines heading for Vietnam. Wind gusts hit 235 MPH. The tragic death count increases to over 1200 a few hours later and in the evening over 10K have died from the storm with 6.5 million people affected. The U.S. is sending help. China inflation is at an 8-month high at 3.2% mainly driven by higher food prices. Interestingly, prior Chinese dynasties fell due to violent social unrest caused by higher food costs. A train carrying crude oil derails and explodes in Alabama creating an intense fire and perhaps reigniting talk about the Keystone Pipeline project (that President Obama continues to prevent) that is a much safer way to transport oil.
On Sunday, 11/10/13, the Fukishima disaster continues. Japan has kept meticulous public health records over the last decades but is not releasing the health data over the last 2 years as cancer and other radiation-related health problems increase among the population. Soil is radioactive miles from Fukishima in populated areas. The nuclear disaster is not contained. Japan must remove the fuel rod bundles as soon as possible, a formidable task that may cause a radioactive steam ejection, but they are d*mned if they do, and d*mned if they don’t. The situation is dire. The main stream media and Japan and U.S. governments ignore and downplay the incident. Until further notice, investments in Japan, despite the BOJ printing yen to pump the stock market higher, are likely best avoided. Pray for the people of Japan as well as the Philippines and Vietnam. Secretary Kerry fails to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran so crude oil may pop on the news. The Venezuelan military seizes control over a chain of electronics stores (similar to Best Buy in the States) forcing the stores to offer what the government deems as lower ‘fair’ prices. People line up to buy televisions and other electronics at reduced prices. The socialist government is looting the stores.
On Monday, 11/11/13, Veteran’s Day. Banks and the bond market are closed but the stock market is open. The Philippines declares a state of calamity (emergency). The death toll rises as the typhoon hits Vietnam and new storms are developing for the Philllipines. Electricity lines and housing is destroyed with wide spread looting occurring. The U.S. and other countries are sending aid. China’s ‘Third Plenum’ 4-day meeting (prior historic plenum decisions in 1978 and 1993 greatly affected China’s politics and economy) maps out economic reforms moving forward. Today is China’s Singles Day the largest shopping day of the year. BSKYB dumps -10%. AAPL is developing a curved screen for the iPhone. Fitch downgrades Chicago’s credit rating by a large three steps due to pension and budget problems. JNJ complains to AMZN about third-party sales of their products on Amazon’s web site that may be expired or stolen merchandise. AMZN teams up with the U.S. post office to provide Sunday deliveries to New York and Los Angeles. Big banks consider blocking on-line chat rooms as regulators apply pressure to address insider and collusion-style trading. Traders quickly defend the chat rooms, instant messaging and email describing these tools as an integral part of their daily job dealing with coworkers, other traders and clients. Remember, as George Carlin would quip, “it’s a big club and you ain’t in it.” Markets are dead flat all day long with the SPX moving through a tight 1771-1772 one-point range. INTC cuts jobs at two Malaysian facilities. GS downgrades LLY which casts a cloud on big pharma. A Wall Street Journal article titled “Stocks Regain Broad Appeal” says that individual investors are piling into stocks again. Many traders scratch their heads since brokers do not see the same behavior. Inflows are increasing with ongoing 401 k additions but overall the retail investor actually appears to be staying away. Nonetheless, traders keep equities buoyant pumping markets higher on any snippet of happy news. The session ends flat with the Dow punching out a new all-time closing high at 15783.10 but not a new all-time intraday high (the 11/7/13 all-time intraday high is 15797.68). This marks the 35th record closing high for the Dow this year. Many money managers and traders are giddy talking of a potential melt-up in markets occurring. Investors Intelligence Advisor Sentiment Report shows 55% and higher bullish sentiment in the market (a contrarian signal where high bullish sentiment indicates too much euphoria where markets typically top out and then sell off). The CPC and CPCE put/calls remain low, as well as the VIX sitting under 13, continuing to indicate uber complacency in markets and a top should appear at any time forward. The Obamacare debacle saga continues. Enrollment numbers are due out this week and already leaking showing only paltry participation (fewer than 50K when 7 million are needed). Far more folks have now lost their health insurance than have signed up for Obamacare; the debacle becomes more twisted each day. The young folks that are needed to pay for the program are not signing up to any great extent. The web site problems continue. President Obama says ‘he would have stopped the web site implementation if he knew it was not ready’ but the continual cover-up talking words each day are hurting his credibility rather than helping. The president is claiming that he had complete ignorance over his signature healthcare plan and future legacy which either shows a completely-detached president that does not care or someone placing political games ahead of the American people; both perceptions create the lower approval ratings. Bipartisan support to find ways to delay Obamacare is underway since the mess worsens each day. Moody’s rating agency warns of potential bankruptcy in Scranton, Pennsylvania (the prior liquidity crisis for this city was July 2012).
On Tuesday, 11/12/13, Japan consumer sentiment is the lowest since the Fukishima disaster. No doubt that folks are sad over the ongoing nuclear disaster that Japan down plays and the global media ignores. Indonesia unexpectedly raises rates. U.K. inflation is lower than expected. Alitalia (Italian airline) announces plans to cut 2000 jobs. Vodaphone will attempt to reverse falling revenues by implementing a program to speed up its networks. Consumer’s demand faster Internet speeds for tablets and Smartphone’s as the mobile society grows. European markets open lower and remain challenged as the session rolls along. Fed’s Fisher, a hawk turned dove recently, says QE will not go on forever. His words are hollow now that he flaps white wings. The 10-year yield is 2.79% (highest in 2 months) as trading resumes in the Treasury market after the holiday. The dollar is higher so copper, commodities and other metals are weaker. Platinum is higher. At 4 AM EST, futures are flat but one hour later; S&P’s -4, Dow -20, Nasdaq -9. FDX is downgraded but its price target is raised. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index drops indicating a continued challenging business environment and the Washington shutdown created business owner negativity. The broad indexes open lower and drift along sideways to begin the day. TMUS announces a secondary offering, perhaps to help buy additional spectrum, and the stock collapses -4.5%. DISH reports solid earnings and jumps +5%. Hedge fund activist Dan Loeb is interviewed mid-day and says he has a position in FDX so the stock leaps +2% higher gaining +4% off the bottom in a couple hours of trading. How many insiders do you think knew about the FDX downgrade to drop FDX, and then that the Loeb mention would occur late morning to pump FDX higher resulting in easy money gains? It’s a big club, and you ain’ t in it. The broad indexes are flat until 11:30 AM when Fed’s Lockhart says that QE may begin as early as next month. The SPX collapses from 1771 to 1765 at noon time. Markets bottom around 1:30 PM when Fed’s Kocherlakota says it is too early to begin tapering. The Fed is the markets; it is shameful and nauseating to watch markets react up and down to any Fed comment. The Kocherlakota bump sends the SPX higher from the 1762 low to 1769. The broad indexes end flat on the day. Copper is beaten -1%. Asian bellwether YUM (Kentucky Fried Chicken, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell chains) announces disappointing sales results for China stores and cuts the full-year forecast. Crude oil settles at 93.04 at the lowest price since May. TSLA drops on rumors of a potential recall but Elon Musk is interviewed in the afternoon calming any concerns over the fires saying “there is definitely not going to be a recall.” After the bell, an arbitration board awards Kraft $2.7 billion against Starbucks. SBUX drops and KRFT pops in AH’s. Former Fed official Andrew Huszar apologizes in the print and television media for QE saying “I am sorry America. The central bank continues to spin QE as a tool for helping Main Street but I’ve come to recognize the program for what it really is: the greatest backdoor Wall Street bailout of all time. QE has left out a sizable portion of the people it was supposed to help. 50 percent of Americans do not own stock. QE did not rein in the too big to fail banks.” And perhaps the most d*mning statistic of all, Huszar says, “0.2% of the banks (the too big to fail banks) control 70% of the assets in this country.” Francis Bacon’s triptych painting “Three Studies of Lucian Freud” sells for $142.4 million at Christie’s; the most expensive work of art ever sold, perhaps the sign of a market top? In a surprising statement, since ex-president’s never comment on the current president, President Clinton says President Obama should honor his promise to America that everyone who wants to keep their existing health insurance should be permitted to do so; however, the cat is out of the bag now with millions of insurance policies cancelled and companies wiping their hands of the old offerings. Good luck trying to put the genie back in the bottle. Obamacare is an unmitigated disaster but perhaps the democrats are crazy like foxes since it all may end up as a single-payer system, expanding Medicare and Medicaid, which is what was desired by democrats all along.
Wednesday, 11/13/13, Asian stocks are weak on the rumors of QE tapering. The Shanghai Index loses -2% with banks crushed from -1 to -5%. China does not provide detailed policies as was expected from the Third Plenum. Secretary Lew calls for more clarity but China obviously plans on holding their cards close to the vest moving forward. MS says the worst is not over for emerging markets. Copper is collapsing. BOE says rates will not rise until the unemployment rate drops under 7.0%. The U.K. unemployment rate is 7.6% one tick lower than expected. Eurozone youth unemployment rate hits another record high at a tragic 24.1% and it is actually getting worse. Italian banks are sold off today with UniCredit down -5% and halted from trading. The currency market-manipulation probe widens with authorities now expanding investigations to 15 of the world’s largest banks. The investigation expands into euro-dollar trading with Switzerland, Hong Kong and U.S. regulators now participating. Futures markets deteriorate as the morning proceeds; S&P’s -10, Dow -91, Nasdaq -19. Copper is collapsing now sporting a 3.16 handle. Mortgage applications are weak. The broad indexes sell off at the open but the dip-buyers rush in waving the Fed QE flag and markets recover. The CHGG IPO begins trading and is greeted with a -15% beating. GS trades down -1% ahead of naming new managing directors. Retailers are up strongly with M leading the parade at +9% due to strong earnings and guidance upside surprise. The 10-year note auction is well received with the yield at 2.73%. Equities move higher in the afternoon on rumors that Yellen will talk dovishly tomorrow; the SPX prints new all-time intraday highs above 1775.22. The Whitehouse releases enrollment numbers for the first month of Obmacare that shows a paltry 26794 signed up on the Federal exchange and 79391 signed up on the State exchanges for a total of 106185. The Whitehouse is disappointed since they expected that 500K would signup by now. The Affordable Health Care Act needs 7 million to be signed up over the next 3 months. Of the 702,619 applicants, only 3.8% have chosen a plan. Equities melt-up into the closing bell as the Yellen rumor about speaking dovishly tomorrow creates upside market fuel. The SPX rockets above 1780 on the talk of more QE easy money. The session ends at the highs with the SPX printing a new all-time closing and intraday high at 1782.00, up 14 points, +0.8%. The Dow prints a new all-time intraday high at 15822.98 and all-time closing high at 15821.63 (36th record close this year), up 71 points, +0.5%. The RUT is up +1.0%. The Nasdaq is near 13-year highs now only 35 points from 4K, up 46 points, +1.2%. Traders ran into small caps and tech on the afternoon Yellen rumor. The Transportation Index (TRAN) prints a new all-time intraday high at 7143.31 and new all-time closing high at 7141.84, up 44 points, +0.6%. The Dow Theorists are happy with new all-time highs on both the Dow Industrials and Trannies occurring. M is up +9.4% leading the retail sector higher. After the bell, the prepared comments from Yellen are released which are dovish just as the rumors predicted. Yellen says the Fed needs to provide more support for the recovery (more QE). The insiders were told ahead of time about Yellen’s pending news release and enjoyed the SPX ride today from 1776 to 1782, 8 points, for an easy +0.5% gain. Do you think the markets are rigged? Remember, it’s a big club and you ain’t in it. After the bell, CSCO beats by 2 pennies on EPS but misses on top line revenue and drops -3%. Cisco announces a buyback plan like many other companies this year (which artificially pumps stock prices higher). In the conference call, CSCO lowers forward guidance far under estimates and the stock collapses -11% in AH’s trading. CEO Chambers, known for his honest candor from his 20+ year’s tenure, says customers are the most negative that he has seen in many years. Not just high tech but across all sectors that the customers represent globally. He says GDP is slowing and confidence is dropping. JNPR drops -3% in sympathy. SnapChat (popular photo exchange social site) rejects a $3 billion cash offer from FB. FaceBook is chasing SnapChat so it can lure younger folks back. This all has a tawdry feel to it with SnapChat likely making a big mistake not taking the money and running while FB is trying to buy its way towards maintaining continued relevancy. AAPL is under investigation in Italy for allegedly underpaying $1.34 billion in taxes. The Andy Warhol painting “Silver Car Crash” sells for $105.4 million at Sotherby’s. The art bubble grows as wealthy folks, made wealthier by Chairman Bernanke’s easy money Fed policies, buy art. JPM attempts a Q&A session via Twitter to increase its social media presence, but is bombarded with negative tweets about how the banks rape the common citizens, are now bigger than ever after receiving bailouts, with CEO’s and executives richer than ever, as the general population continues to suffer daily, their lives falling apart. JPM cancels the session.
On Thursday, 11/14/13, Japan expands at one-half the pace of the previous quarter; domestic demand and exports remain sluggish. The Nikkkei jumps +2% and the Shanghai is up +0.6%. Asian stocks rally following along with the Yellen dove rally initiated in the States. Germany’s economy slows with weak exports. The higher euro is hurting the European economy and with Yellen speaking dovishly to beat the dollar lower, the euro will remain buoyant. European markets begin trading and gain +1% across the board following along with the Yellen dove rally. The France and Italy economies contract with weak GDP’s verifying the ongoing sick Eurozone growth environment. U.K. retail sales are surprisingly weak. At 4:30 AM EST, the dollar/yen hits 100 (first time in 2 months) so the weaker yen drives Asian markets higher but will keep the euro elevated. S&P futures are +6, Dow +40, Nasdaq -3. Copper is buoyant overnight but turns negative. KSS misses badly on earnings and is punished -7%. WMT beats on EPS but misses on the top line and guides lower. Walmart drops -2% pre-market. International Trade, Jobless Claims and Productivity and Costs data are weaker than expected but this simply means more QE is likely so the S&P’s remain bullish at +4. LMT axes 4K jobs citing slower government spending. The broad indexes move flat as the trading day begins. Future Fed Chair Yellen testifies before the Senate Banking Committee providing dovish comments which helps provide lift to the stock market. She says jobs remain a concern since one-third of the unemployed are out of work longer than 6 months. Her dovish reputation is in full display as she describes a weak economy that needs stimulus far into the future. The proceedings are very civilized, not confrontational at all; the senators do not want to do battle against a lady that looks like she just baked an apple pie. President Obama announces that those who had health insurances cancelled will now be allowed to keep that insurance as he promised for the last 3 years. The plan is ridiculed immediately, however, since the insurance companies already changed their plans and are unlikely to reoffer these plans. Markets become very bullish on Yellen’s dovish words. The SPX and Dow are printing new all-time highs and the bulls appear unstoppable. The most surprising and remarkable statement by Yellen is that she does not see any asset bubbles in the markets (the dividend stock bubble is likely to pop at any time). The insurance industry fires back at the Whitehouse calling the president’s announcement “a joke” since the responsibility is placed on the insurers to help rectify the mess caused by Obamacare. President Obama conducts a press conference midday defending Obamacare. Equities end up on the day due to the continuing Yellen dove rally the SPX printing a new all-time intraday high at 1791.53 and new all-time closing high at 1790.62, up 9 points, +0.5%, approaching 1800. The Dow prints a new all-time intraday high at 15884.99 and new all-time closing high at 15876.22, up 55 points, +0.4%, approaching 16000. The Nasdaq prints a 13-year closing high at 3972.74, up 7 points, +0.2%. The RUT is negative on the day. Tech and small caps lag, however, the Nasdaq finished positive with CSCO -11%. After the bell, the SEC releases say Buffet has taken a big stake in XOM which pops +2% AH’s. JWN earnings are weak and guidance is lowered resulting in a -1.2% beating. The typhoon disaster aftermath continues in the Philippines with over 600K homeless. The death count is 4400 under the original 10K estimate but steadily climbing. Mass graves bury the dead and looting is a continued problem. The U.S.S. George Washington aircraft carrier is in the area as well as international relief agencies to provide aid. Thailand’s political protests and social unrest continues.
On Friday, 11/15/13, the dollar/yen is 100.35 well above the 100 level. The weaker yen sends the Nikkei +2% higher. China plans to loosen the one-child policy. China’s plan forward from the Third Plenum is market friendly causing the Shanghai to jump +2%. VW recalls 2.64 million vehicles with lighting problems, fuel leaks and gearbox malfunctions; the largest recall in Volkswagen’s history. The trash piles up in Madrid as the garbage strike approaches 2 weeks long. European finance ministers continue a 2-day meeting. Bundesbank’s Dombret says a low rate environment may lead to bubbles (Yellen apparently does not agree; of course Dombret is correct). The Greece finance minister says austerity measures are no longer acceptable. Greece remains in a depression. The euro is 1.3452 so Draghi’s rate cut is not helping. Yellen beats the dollar lower and the BOJ beats the yen lower which causes the euro to remain elevated and hamper a European recovery. European stock markets trade flat today but will print an up week. Moody’s cuts the ratings on 4 large banks; MS, GS, JPM and BK. Today is OpEx. The 10-year yield is 2.71%. KMB will split into 2 companies. K is downgraded. The CIA is gathering information on American citizens just like the NSA has been doing for years. Everything you do electronically on computers, cell phones, etc.., is recorded and archived forever. Empire State Mfg Survey is weaker than expected. Equities open higher with the SPX and Dow printing new all-time highs once again. Wholesale Trade data is better than expected. The flash-sale web site ZU (Zulily) IPO begins trading and leaps +70%. Insurers say the Obamacare ‘fix’ announced yesterday only creates further confusion and may lead to even higher premiums moving forward. Washington State says they will not allow the carriers to continue offering previous individual health policies despite the president’s proclamation. Documents surface showing the Whitehouse knew in July that the Obamacare web site could possibly crash. The Department of Homeland Security says cyber attacks are occurring on the Obamacare exchange web site. The Obamacare mess continues. Consumer staple fave PG hits new all-time highs. The use of biofuels is projected to decrease with an ethanol reduction coming so the corn price is hit hard and seed and other ag companies are affected with ADM, a divvy fave of investors, collapsing -3.4%. Traders are giddy chasing the broad indexes higher. The 3-day Yellen dove rally continues. Traders are running into stocks believing that QE tapering will not begin until March 2014 or later and a big stock market party is on tap to end the year as well as begin the new year. Television pundit James Cramer says the markets are going up and to “stay along for the ride.” Other traders and analysts repeat the same idea that the round number targets, SPX 1800, Dow 16K and Nasdaq 4K, are all guaranteed, take it to the bank, and will occur today or any day next week. Strategist Ed Yardeni says the SPX north of 2K is possible early next year. All this behavior is reminiscent of the dot-com top and October 2007 top. Equities remain bullish all day long and at 3 PM leap higher into a late-day melt-up. The SPX gains +0.2% printing a new all-time high at 1798.22 within 2 points of 1800 and a new all-time closing high at 1798.18. The Dow is up +0.5% printing a new all-time high at 15962.98 and new all-time closing high at 15961.70. The new all-time highs print for both indexes for 3 consecutive days. The Nasdaq is up +0.3% printing a new 13-year intraday and closing high at 3985.97. The RUT gains +0.4% but does not print new all-time highs. The TRAN gains +0.7% printing a new all-time high at 7211.61 and new all-time closing high at 7211.04. For the week, the major indexes all move up in near lock step from +1.3% to +1.7% hinting that the machines are in charge of trading these days. Trannies jump +2.8% this week on the lower oil price. Financials are expected to lead equities higher moving forward but they lag this week up +1.3%. The CRB Commodities Index is negative on the week. The DBA Ag sector ETF drops -0.5%. Copper collapses -2.7% this week and CSCO loses -8.4%. Bad news is good news. Traders do not care about the fundamentals since the Fed supplies ample crack cocaine easy money each day and Yellen is now on record to keep the candy coming well into 2014. Thus, all the wealthy friends of the Fed will become even wealthier and the 50% of America that do not own stocks will become poorer due to the structural unemployment. The SPX has not come down to touch the 200-day MA, now at 1637, in over one-year’s time, an unprecedented market rally that flies in the face of market fundamentals and technical’s and verifies the overwhelming power of the Fed’s money printing. The SPX is up 6 consecutive weeks, the longest winning streak since the year began. Samsung continues to lead AAPL in global smartphone sales. 39 House democrats break ranks with the president and vote in favor of the ‘Keep Your Health Plan Act’ to allow insurers to continue to offer the previous policies for individuals. The Whitehouse opposes the bill. This week was the worst week for the Obama presidency. The president promises that the Obamacare web site will be fully functioning 14 days from now.
On Saturday, 11/16/13, ……
On Sunday, 11/17/13, a full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon. There are 11 days (next week) until Thanksgiving, 38 days (5 weeks remaining for the retail holiday shopping season) until Christmas and 44 days until the EOY. Fed heads provide 11 speeches this week to pump the stock market higher. The BOJ decision this week is important.
On Monday, 11/18/123, TIC data. Housing Market Index 10 AM. E-Commerce Retail Sales. Fed’s Rosengren, Dudley, Plosser and Kocherlakota speak. CRM. URBN. TSN.
On Tuesday, 11/19/13, Employment Cost Index. Fed’s Evans speaks. Chairman Bernanke speaks 7 PM EST. BBY. HD. DKS. CPB. TJX.
On Wednesday, 11/20/13, BOJ 2-day meeting begins. Mortgage Applications. CPI. Retail Sales. Business Inventories and Existing Home Sales 10AM will create a market pivot point. Oil Inventories. Fed’s Bullard speaks. FOMC Minutes 2 PM will create a market pivot point. JCP. SPLS. WSM. DE. LOW. JACK.
On Thursday, 11/21/13, BOJ rate and policy decision. The BOJ must deliver more QE to weaken the yen to send the Nikkei and U.S. equities higher moving into early 2014. If the BOJ does not deliver the easy money, the yen will strengthen and the Nikkei will sell off. Asian PMI’s. European PMI’s. Fed’s Bullard and Powell speak. Jobless Claims. PPI. Philly Fed. Natty Gas Inventories. 10-Year TIPS Auction. DLTR. ANF. ADSK. P.
On Friday, 11/22/13, JOLTS Job Openings Report. Kansas City Fed Mfg Index. Fed’s George and Tarullo speak. FL. ANN. PETM.
On Saturday, 11/23/13, ….
On Sunday, 11/24/13, ….
On Monday, 11/25/13, Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. 2-Year Note Auction.
On Tuesday, 11/26/13, GDP. Housing Starts. FHFA House Price Index. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Richmond Fed Mfg Index. 5-Year Note Auction.
On Wednesday, 11/27/13, Mortgage Applications. Durable Goods Orders. Jobless Claims. Personal Income and Outlays. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM will create a market pivot point. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. Leading indicators. Oil Inventories. Natty Gas Inventories (one-day early). 7-Year Note Auction. Farm Prices. Markets tend to be bullish moving into and through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
On Thursday, 11/28/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of Thanksgiving holiday.
On Friday, 11/29/13, Markets Reopen for Trading but Close Early at 1 PM EST. Today is EOM. Markets are typically bullish from the last day of the month through the first 4 days of the new month.
On Saturday, 11/30/13, ….
On Sunday, 12/1/13, …..
On Monday, 12/2/13, Asia PMI’s. Europe PMI’s. ISM Mfg Index 10 AM which will create a market pivot point. A new moon occurs in the evening. Markets are typically bearish moving through the new moon.
On Tuesday, 12/3/13, Motor Vehicle Sales.
On Wednesday, 12/4/13, Mortgage Applications. ADP Employment Report. International Trade. Productivity and Costs. New Home Sales. ISM Non-Mfg Index. Oil Inventories. Beige Book 2 PM will create a market pivot point.
On Thursday, 12/5/13, ECB Rate Decision 7:45 AM EST and Draghi Press Conference 8:30 AM. A rate cut will drop the euro, pop the dollar, and likely send commodities lower. Chain Store Sales. Challenger Job-Cut Report. Jobless Claims. Factory Orders. Natty Gas Inventories.
On Friday, 12/6/13, Monthly Jobs Report. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. Fed’s Plosser speaks. Consumer Credit.
On Saturday, 12/7/13, ….
On Sunday, 12/8/13, …
On Monday, 12/9/13, ….
On Tuesday, 12/10/13, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. JOLTS Job Openings Report. Wholesale Trade. 3-Year Note Auction.
On Wednesday, 12/11/13, Mortgage Applications. Oil Inventories. 10-Year Note Auction. Treasury Budget 2 PM.
On Thursday, 12/12/13, Jobless Claims. Retail Sales. Import and Export Prices. Business Inventories. Natty Gas Inventories. 30-Year Bond Auction.
On Friday, 12/13/13, PPI. Congress provides a detailed road map to handle the U.S. budget crisis moving forward.
On Saturday, 12/14/13, …
On Sunday, 12/15/13, the initial sign-up period for Obamacare ends for those beginning insurance on 1/1/14. The Whitehouse needs 7 million people (mainly healthy young people) to sign-up by March, otherwise, the program will start bleeding money and require a future bailout by the taxpayers.
During Q4, European bank stress tests will begin and take one year to complete (there are likely 10% of the 128 banks undercapitalized with no clear way on how to recapitalize these troubled institutions). The one-year timeline is chosen to keep stretching things out in the hope that the European economyrecovers before further bad news occurs. Germany’s high court must decide if the ECB’s OMT program is constitutional. Europe must finalize all plans for the new banking union.
On Monday, 12/16/13, Empire State Mfg Index. TIC data. Industrial Production. 2-Year Note Auction.
On Tuesday, 12/17/13, FOMC 2-day meeting begins. Is QE taper talk on the table? CPI. Housing Market Index. 5-Year Note Auction. A full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon.
On Wednesday, 12/18/13, Mortgage Applications. Housing Starts. Oil Inventories. 7-Year Note Auction. FOMC Meeting Announcement and Forecasts 2 PM which will create a market pivot point. Chairman Bernanke Press Conference and Q&A from 2:30 PM to 3:30 PM will move markets.
On Thursday, 12/19/13, BOJ 2-day meeting begins. Jobless Claims. Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Natty Gas Inventories. 5-Year TIPS Auction.
On Friday, 12/20/13, BOJ rate and policy decision. OpEx Quadruple Witching. GDP. Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations. Kansas City Fed Mfg Index.
On Saturday, 12/21/13, ….
On Sunday, 12/22/13, ….
On Monday, 12/23/13, Personal Income and Outlays. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point.
On Tuesday, 12/24/13, Durable Goods Orders. FHFA House Price Index. New Home Sales. Richmond Fed Mfg Index. Markets Close Early for Christmas Eve.
On Wednesday, 12/25/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of Christmas holiday.
On Thursday, 12/26/13, Markets Reopen for Trading. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Oil Inventories.
On Friday, 12/27/13, Natty Gas Inventories.
On Saturday, 12/28/13, …..
On Sunday, 12/29/13, …..
On Monday, 12/30/13, Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. Farm Prices.
On Tuesday, 12/31/13, EOM. EOQ4. EOY2013. S&P Case-Shiller. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM will create a market pivot. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market pivot point.
----------------------------- 2014 ----------------------
On Wednesday, 1/1/14, Markets are Closed in Observance of New Years holiday. A major Bradley turn date occurs where a major market directional move is expected in the 12/23/13 through 1/8/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one way of the other. Another Bradley turns in quick order so the beginning of the year may be a wild ride for the stock market. A new moon occurs. Markets are typically bearish moving through the new moon.
On Thursday, 1/2/14, Asia PMI’s. Europe PMI’s. Markets Reopen for Trading. Motor Vehicle Sales. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Natty Gas Inventories. Oil Inventories (one-day delayed).
On Friday, 1/3/14, …..
On Thursday, 1/9/14, a Bradley turn date occurs where a market directional move is expected in the 1/2/14 through 1/16/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one way of the other.
On Wednesday, 1/15/14, a Continuing Resolution (CR) is needed to fund and keep the U.S. government open.
On Thursday, 1/16/14, a full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon.
On Wednesday, 1/29/14, Chairman Bernanke conducts his last official two-day meeting (1/28 and 1/29) as Chair of the FOMC.
On Friday, 1/31/14, Chairman Bernanke’s term ends at the Fed. New Chair Yellen takes over.
On Friday, 2/7/14, the Debt Ceiling Limit is hit where the U.S. may default on obligations. Treasury Secretary Lew will use extraordinary measures to extend this time forward so late February or early March is a likelier deadline. Winter Olympics begin in Sochi, Russia, through 2/23/14.
On Wednesday, 3/19/14, new Fed Chair Yellen talks at the conclusion of her first FOMC meeting (3/18 and 3/19).
In February/March 2014, Fed Chair Yellen testifies before Congress.
In March 2014, the ESM is officially “fully operational.” The Euro banking union is in place after delays from January 2013 to January 2014 and now to March 2014.
In April 2014, MSFT no longer supports Windows XP.
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