Saturday, November 23, 2013
Keystone's Trading Week in Review and Key Events Ahead for Markets 11/23/13
On Friday, 11/15/13, the dollar/yen is 100.35 well above the 100 level. The weaker yen sends the Nikkei +2% higher. China plans to loosen the one-child policy. China’s plan forward from the Third Plenum is market friendly causing the Shanghai to jump +2%. VW recalls 2.64 million vehicles with lighting problems, fuel leaks and gearbox malfunctions; the largest recall in Volkswagen’s history. The trash piles up in Madrid as the garbage strike approaches 2 weeks long. European finance ministers continue a 2-day meeting. Bundesbank’s Dombret says a low rate environment may lead to bubbles (Yellen apparently does not agree; of course Dombret is correct). The Greece finance minister says austerity measures are no longer acceptable. Greece remains in a depression. The euro is 1.3452 so Draghi’s rate cut is not helping. Yellen beats the dollar lower and the BOJ beats the yen lower which causes the euro to remain elevated and hamper a European recovery. European stock markets trade flat today but will print an up week. Moody’s cuts the ratings on 4 large banks; MS, GS, JPM and BK. Today is OpEx. The 10-year yield is 2.71%. KMB will split into 2 companies. K is downgraded. The CIA is gathering information on American citizens just like the NSA has been doing for years. Everything you do electronically on computers, cell phones, etc.., is recorded and archived forever. Empire State Mfg Survey is weaker than expected. Equities open higher with the SPX and Dow printing new all-time highs once again. Wholesale Trade data is better than expected. The flash-sale web site ZU (Zulily) IPO begins trading and leaps +70%. Insurers say the Obamacare ‘fix’ announced yesterday only creates further confusion and may lead to even higher premiums moving forward. Washington State says they will not allow the carriers to continue offering previous individual health policies despite the president’s proclamation. Documents surface showing the Whitehouse knew in July that the Obamacare web site could possibly crash. The Department of Homeland Security says cyber attacks are occurring on the Obamacare exchange web site. The Obamacare mess continues. Consumer staple fave PG hits new all-time highs. The use of biofuels is projected to decrease with an ethanol reduction coming so the corn price is hit hard and seed and other ag companies are affected with ADM, a divvy fave of investors, collapsing -3.4%. Traders are giddy chasing the broad indexes higher. The 3-day Yellen dove rally continues. Traders are running into stocks believing that QE tapering will not begin until March 2014 or later and a big stock market party is on tap to end the year as well as begin the new year. Television pundit James Cramer says the markets are going up and to “stay along for the ride.” Other traders and analysts repeat the same idea that the round number targets, SPX 1800, Dow 16K and Nasdaq 4K, are all guaranteed, take it to the bank, and will occur today or any day next week. Strategist Ed Yardeni says the SPX north of 2K is possible early next year. All this behavior is reminiscent of the dot-com top and October 2007 top. Equities remain bullish all day long and at 3 PM leap higher into a late-day melt-up. The SPX gains +0.2% printing a new all-time high at 1798.22 within 2 points of 1800 and a new all-time closing high at 1798.18. The Dow is up +0.5% printing a new all-time high at 15962.98 and new all-time closing high at 15961.70. The new all-time highs print for both indexes for 3 consecutive days. The Nasdaq is up +0.3% printing a new 13-year intraday and closing high at 3985.97. The RUT gains +0.4% but does not print new all-time highs. The TRAN gains +0.7% printing a new all-time high at 7211.61 and new all-time closing high at 7211.04. For the week, the major indexes all move up in near lock step from +1.3% to +1.7% hinting that the machines are in charge of trading these days. Trannies jump +2.8% this week on the lower oil price. Financials are expected to lead equities higher moving forward but they lag this week up +1.3%. The CRB Commodities Index is negative on the week. The DBA Ag sector ETF drops -0.5%. Copper collapses -2.7% this week and CSCO loses -8.4%. Bad news is good news. Traders do not care about the fundamentals since the Fed supplies ample crack cocaine easy money each day and Yellen is now on record to keep the candy coming well into 2014. Thus, all the wealthy friends of the Fed will become even wealthier and the 50% of America that do not own stocks will become poorer due to the structural unemployment. The SPX has not come down to touch the 200-day MA, now at 1637, in over one-year’s time, an unprecedented market rally that flies in the face of market fundamentals and technical’s and verifies the overwhelming power of the Fed’s money printing. The SPX is up 6 consecutive weeks, the longest winning streak since the year began. Despite the strong upside, the low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios, low VIX and high bullish sentiment continue to indicate rampant complacency and a significant market top at hand. Samsung continues to lead AAPL in global smartphone sales. 39 House democrats break ranks with the president and vote in favor of the ‘Keep Your Health Plan Act’ to allow insurers to continue to offer the previous policies for individuals. The Whitehouse opposes the bill. This week was the worst week for the Obama presidency. The president promises that the Obamacare web site will be fully functioning 14 days from now.
On Saturday, 11/16/13, the Volcano Sinabung eruption intensifies in Indonesia spewing ash 2.5 miles into the air. Italy’s Mount Etna volcano continues to erupt violently. BA will not reopen talks with Washington State unions concerning the future production of the 777X airplane and plans on exploring other opportunities in the U.S. and abroad. Former Treasury Secretary Geithner takes a position at the private equity firm Warburg Pincus. The Whitehouse is backing off the promise to have the Obamacare web site fully functional within 2 weeks time and now say it should be about 80% functional. Mediocrity rules in today’s society. Holiday sales projections indicate that folks plan on spending less on holiday gifts this year. Barron’s weekend cover says “Bubble?” Typically, at a market top, the magazine and newspaper covers should be bullishly euphoric (contrarian signal) but asking if there is a bubble hints that everyone sees it so it should not occur. However, upon closer inspection, Barron’s is highlighting the high-flyers such as TWTR, LNKD, WDAY, NDLS and PBPB only as potential bubble stocks and actually says the blue chips are great buys at these elevated levels.
On Sunday, 11/17/13, Japan delays the plan to remove fuel rods from one of the troubled Fukishima reactor pools since the rods are partially melted at the bottom complicating the task. Japan now backtracks from saying the surrounding areas clean-up would be complete by spring 2014 and now says the efforts may last beyond 3 years. Japan has a huge ongoing disaster on its hand but the global media ignores the dire situation. Japan says it will not meet earlier carbon dioxide emission goals and relaxes the targets which angers the climate-change folks. A poll from The Economist shows that more than one-third of the unemployed in the U.S., Europe and other wealthy nations have been out of work for more than one year. Employers (wrongly) view the long-term unemployed as lazy and damaged goods greatly reducing their chance of finding a job. A BA 737 crashes in Russia killing 50. Tornado’s and violent storms across the Midwest kill 5. Sony’s Playstation 4 launch is very successful selling one million units in the first 24 hours.
On Monday, 11/18/123, the dollar/yen is 100.34 so the NIKK I sbuoyant but drops to the flat line at the closing bell as the yen strengthens to a dollar/yen at 99.94. The China reform rally continues with the Shanghai +3%. China H Shares gain +6%. China releases more details for its plan over the next decade to shift more towards a market-based economy. Do not hold your breath since the number of State-owned companies will likely remain the same. China will attempt to accelerate the convertibility of the yuan. Chinese baby product and formula suppliers jump higher since the one-child policy is relaxed. Chjna reduces spending on its electrical grid so copper is sold off to begin the week. The China joy does not initially follow through to Europe where markets are flat to negative but then rise about +0.5% across the board. The digital currency Bitcoin prints a new all-time high on the Mt. Gox exchange at $608. MSFT meets and develops a future CEO short list of 3 to 5 names to replace Ballmer. Fed considers delaying the Volcker rule; of course to benefit the wealthy. MSFT is downgraded and takes a -1.5% hit pre-market. BA, the best performing Dow stock this year, receives over $100 billion in airplane orders and jumps +3.4% to 141 pre-market. MS says the holiday retail sales season may be the worst since 2008. JPM reaches a $4.6 billion settlement over MBS and continues to chip away at its legal problems. The broad indexes leap higher at the opening bell and in the opening minute the SPX prints 1800 and the Dow 16K for the first time in history. NAHB home builder confidence data is flat with previous numbers revised lower. The broad indexes settle in with a sideways pattern. Europe closes up with Italy banks up +3% to +6%. A key split is occurring within the Berlusconi party. Fed’s Dudley, a dove, provides a very upbeat economic forecast which would hint at QE tapering coming sooner rather than later. UNH cans thousands of doctors over the last few months. Bitcoin hits $670. Between 2:30 PM and 3:30 PM, equities drop like a stone. The SPX drops from 1802 to 1788, 14 handles. The Dow drops from 16030 to 15945, 85 points. The selling is blamed on a statement by Carl Icahn that markets may suffer a big drop due to high valuations although equities were ready to roll over due to the negative divergence on the hourly and minute charts anyway. The SPX loses -0.4% but does print a new all-time intraday high at 1802.33. The Dow is flat on the day but prints a new all-time intraday high at 16030.28 and new all-time closing high at 15976.02. The Nasdaq collapses 37 points, -0.9%, to 3949. RUT small caps dump 9 points, -0.8%, to 1107. TSLA pukes -10.2%. The VIX moves above 13. After the bell, CRM earnings are in line but guidance is lowered so Salesforce dumps -3.5% in the AH’s. Asset managers Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO) say the fair value of the S&P 500 is 1100 about -40% lower from current levels. Washington State reports that of the 57730 folks signing up for Obamacare, 51368 are Medicaid rather than the young healthy folks the program needs to remain fiscally sustainable. The Whitehouse is pressured about lowering expectations for the end of month deadline to have the Obamacare web site fully operational since they now consider a 20% failure rate as a success. Bitcoin moves above $900.
On Tuesday, 11/19/13, an X1.0 solar flare causes a radio and sensitive electronics outage for a few minutes time. The dollar/yen is 99.84. Asia markets are flat with the Kospi the stand-out up +1.0%. Asia banks drop -2% to -3%. Chinese media stocks surge higher. The OECD surprisingly cuts the global outlook to 3.6% from 5.8% citing weak emerging markets. Oil leaks lower. OECD’s Gurria says the Fed cannot inflate its balance sheet forever and QE cannot go on forever. Documents surface that show the jobs numbers before the presidential election may have been tampered with and faked. It is unclear what impact this may have had on the job numbers and election. Jack Welch took a lot of heat at the time claiming that the numbers appear fraudulent when they were announced so perhaps he feels vindicated. The tawdry details surrounding last year’s election are growing with the NSA spying on the groups that opposed the president, the IRS targeting groups opposing the president, the Benghazi cover-up, the president lying about Obamacare telling everyone they could keep their existing health insurance and doctor when he knew it was untrue all along and now fakery in the job numbers days before the election. No wonder the Whitehouse credibility is decreasing each day. The pharma companies are now projecting sales losses of as much as -30% over the next year due to the Obamacare disaster. Senior official Chao, one of the executives overseeing Obamacare, drops bombshell news, admitting that a shocking 40% of the health care marketplace still needs to be built. The Obamacare disaster becomes worse each day. Where is all the money going? President Obama tries to conduct a webcast conference to rally supporters for Obamacare but the web cast cuts in and out and has to be ended. The once tech-savvy Whitehouse is a distant memory. The story he touted about Jessica Sanford, an individual in poor health that signed up for Obamacare, reverses course as she realizes her health insurance cost actually rises substantially, and she can no longer afford insurance because of the new program. The hack attacks on the Obamacare web site are increasing and security professionals say the site is unsafe. Documents surface from March 2013, 6 months before the health care roll-out, showing the Whitehouse was fully aware that the Obamacare web site would likely crash. President Obama should delay the program for one year since the fiasco now creates death by a thousand cuts for his administration. The U.S. launches an investigation into the Tesla fires which explains the TSLA sinking stock price, from 194 to 121, 73 points, in 6 weeks time, down -38% off the October top. HD provides strong earnings and guidance and jumps +3% pre-market. Home Depot says the home remodeling market is strong. BBY matches earnings but says the holiday price wars will hurt profits and the stock drops -6.4%. WMT will start sales promotions one week early this year (the retailers are already slitting each others’ throats with sales a sign of lackluster holiday buying; the sales will benefit the consumer but hurt the profit margins and earnings of the retailers). CPB misses on earnings and it is beaten -2%; there is a fly in the soup. WTIC crude oil drops under 93 with Brent oil near 108 (15 spread). The broad indexes open flat with the Dow briefly moving up above 16K again. Copper recovers as the morning proceeds. BBY pukes -9.1%. The dollar/yen teases each side of 100. Financials are up about +0.5% across the board. Equities continue sideways into lunch time. The utilities sector weakens. Future Fed Chair Yellen says monetary accommodation will remain long after any target numbers, such as the 6.5% unemployment rate, are achieved. Her cheer leading does not help the bond market with the 10-year note yield actually floating higher to 2.72%. Yellen is starting to make the case that there is a big difference between tapering QE and raising rates, however, traders do not care. When the Fed announces tapering, the end of the party will begin, perhaps in force, especially since the Fed balked in September. Fed’s Evans says ‘bountiful accommodation’ will remain for the markets. The broad indexes float slightly higher from this cheer leading. The Fed verbal stock market pumping is becoming embarrassing and nauseating. Bountiful? Did Evans just say bountiful? The 10-year yield is flat at 2.71%. JPM reaches an official settlement with the Justice Department agreeing to pay $13 billion; the largest fine for a single entity in history. This settlement takes a large chunk of JPM’s funds set aside for litigation and the civil and criminal legal problems will continue through 2014. JPM is up +0.8%. The broad indexes drift lower into the closing bell and finish down on the day. There are no all-time high records today. Semiconductors are in trouble and their behavior tomorrow will greatly impact markets. Bitcoin collapses from $900 to $500. YHOO boosts its buyback to $5 billion to pump its stock price. Traders likely prevented the markets from dropping in force today since Chairman Bernanke speaks at 7 PM EST. Bernanke repeats the mantra about accommodation and low rates remaining in place for a long time forward even after the 6.5% unemployment rate target is achieved. The futures do not react to the news. The Fed cheerleading and jawboning may be losing its effectiveness moving forward.
On Wednesday, 11/20/13, the dollar/yen is flat drifting along the 100 level as the BOJ 2-day policy meeting begins. Italy and Spain bank lending remains weak. Hungary’s economy is stronger than expected. BOE says accommodative policy will remain even after their targets are achieved. Those words sound just like the Fed. The ECB is evaluating a potential negative deposit rate and the euro drops under 1.35. JCP earnings are in line and it jumps +5%. JCP is selling slacks at $1.97 trying to clear inventory. Talk about deflation. The low price competitiveness will force all retailers to slit each other’s throats and reduce prices for holiday shoppers. LOW misses by a penny, contradicting HD’s happy talk yesterday, so it is beaten -3%. Global bellwether DE beats on earnings and jumps +4%. CPI shows no inflation. Retail Sales are better than expected. Futures move slightly above the flat line. The broad indexes move flat as the session begins. Utilities, semiconductors and volatility are greatly affecting markets today. Business Inventories are up so the question is will the consumers buy these goods moving forward? Existing Home Sales are weaker than expected. SJM earnings disappoint so the stock is jammed -6% lower. Fed’s Bullard says tapering may occur with a strong November jobs report. Markets continue sideways. The FOMC Minutes at 2 PM are confusing and say that tapering will begin in the coming months. Some members are open to the idea of tapering before there is a clear evidence of a recovery economy. Worry is developing by the Fed, traders, money managers and investors that the U.S. is in a period of ‘secular stagnation’ which describes a long period of low growth and lackluster job creation. Traders view the minutes as more hawkish so stocks collapse, the 10-year yield spikes to 2.80%, the dollar pops, and gold drops over 30 bucks to 1242. Into the close, utilities and semiconductors collapse creating further negativity. The SPX ends 7 points lower, -0.4%, to 1781. The Dow ends 66 points lower, -0.4%, to 15900, a long ways from the 16K celebrated only one day ago. The Nasdaq is down -0.3% and RUT -0.1%. The dip-buyers enter the market at 3:10 PM when the Dow is down triple digits. The Obamacare disaster continues when Sebelius performs a photo-op with the press watching a couple sign up for Obmacare and the web site crashes in front of everyone. Sebelius looks foolish, like the town clown, and only responds by saying “Uh-oh.” These follies day after day are destroying all credibility for the Obamacare program. The late-night comedians have plenty of material each night.
On Thursday, 11/21/13, the BOJ maintains status quo on monetary policy but speaks dovishly and says the economy is in recovery mode. The Nikkei gains +2%. Dollar/yen is up to 100.90 as the yen weakens. China PMI is 50.4, lower than expected, down for the first time in 4 months, but remains a hair above 50 indicating slight expansion. Asian markets are flat to lower. Copper moves higher. European PMI’s are weaker than expected across the board. France’s manufacturing sector drops into contraction with a PMI number slipping under 50. Germany is the bright spot. The 10-year yield is 2.78%. At 4 AM EST, futures are flat but gain buoyancy moving into the opening bell with S&P’s +4. MSFT XboxOne goes on sale. The retail sector earnings are slapped silly. TGT misses and is beaten -4%. ANF beats on earnings but guides lower so it is slapped -3%. DLTR misses and says the consumer is very cautious so it loses -6%. SHLD misses and it drops -3%. An ugly morning for retail; folks simply do not have the money to spend. The broad indexes move higher as the session begins. At 10 AM, the Philly Fed data is weaker than expected but this hints at more QE, bad news is good news, so the 10-year yield drops from 2.83% to 2.78% and stocks pop higher. Fed’s Bullard says the ‘balance sheet has room’ which means more QE so equities move higher. Comically, Bullard said the day before that tapering is possible in December. Perhaps tomorrow he will have another different answer depending on which way the wind blows. PM is downgraded by GS. The dollar/yen hits 101 so the weaker yen today helps fuel stock prices higher. The SPX recovers all of Wednesday’s losses, up 14 points, +0.8%, to 1796. The Dow prints above 16K for the first time in history. The 15K threshold was crossed 6 months ago. The Dow gains 109 points, +0.7%, to 16010. The Nasdaq is up +1.2% and RUT +1.8%. Volume is light. After the bell, P beats on earnings but it is sold off -2%. GMCR provides a weak outlook but traders do not care since they announce a large buyback and it jumps +14%. GPS announces a $1 billion buyback to pump their stock price. UNP announces a large buyback. Companies take the Fed’s easy money and finance buybacks which reduces shares and boosts EPS. About two-thirds of the earnings growth over the last 2 years is purely due to buybacks. Earnings numbers are met through creative accounting. The buybacks also keep the PE’s artificially low so stocks are likely far more overvalued than anyone realizes. The Senate Finance Committee recommends Yellen for the new Fed Chair paving the way for her confirmation vote by the full Senate. Senate Leader Reid and member democrats trigger the ‘nuclear option’ and eliminate filibusters on most nominees; only 51 votes will required, a simple majority, rather than 60 votes. This action is against what the Founding Fathers wanted and only fuels the bipartisanship in Washington, D.C. The debt ceiling and government funding negotiations now become far more difficult. The market vibe is uber bullish. Traders are buying the dips convinced that a big melt-up year-end finish is ahead. Bubble talk continues but it is faux worry since traders continue to jump into the long side and fuel the ongoing market rally. The put/call ratios drop to low levels again with the CPCE at 0.48 verifying the ongoing uber complacency and lack of fear in the markets. This behavior is consistent with markets placing a significant top. Everyone is firmly convinced that the Fed can pump the stock market higher forever. More documents surface confirming that the Whitehouse was fully aware of the pending Obamacare debacle in advance but the roll-out went ahead anyway. California votes against allowing insurers to extend cancelled plans (President Obama tries to remedy the 3-year falsehood that folks would be allowed to keep their existing health insurance plans and doctors). California says the president’s change would only confuse the situation. Larry Summers, who lost out to Yellen for the Fed Chair, says that history will overwhelmingly approve of the QE program. A jury awards AAPL $290 million in damages for patent infringement against Samsung. WMT and AMZN both offer free shipping for orders over $35. The retail competition wars continue for the holiday season with only 33 shopping days remaining until Christmas and Black Friday (named because many retailers go profitable this time of year from red ink into the black; as much as 80% of sales may occur in Q4), the day after Thanksgiving when many folks have a day off work, one of the busiest shopping days of the year, only one week away.
On Friday, 11/22/13, Asia markets trade flat with the Shanghai negative. The dollar/yen is 101.24. Aussie dollar drops -0.8% as the RBA contemplates a rate cut. Copper is higher. U.S. futures are flat. The 10-year yield is 2.79%. Germany’s IFO business sentiment is 109.3 far exceeding consensus, however, the remainder of Europe, such as France, does not share the happiness. Draghi speaks at the European Banking Conference and says ‘he acts for all of Europe’. At a different event, ECB’s Nowotny says the long-term impact of low rates must be closely monitored. The euro is 1.3521. GS predicts steep losses for gold coming in 2014. Hedge fund manager Paulson says he will not add to his gold holdings. The majority of traders are very negative on gold and gold miners. The broad indexes drop at the opening bell but immediately recover as the dip buyers trip over each other eager to buy long. Equities steadily move higher all day long. The VNCE Vince designer clothing retailer IPO opens for trading and catapults over +40%. The IPO orgy this year is reminiscent of the dotcom bubble orgy in late 1999 early 2000. The JOLTS Job Openings Report shows an improvement in hiring and a 69,000 increase in job postings. INTC lowers guidance and it is beaten -5.4% keeping the semiconductor sector flat to negative today. ROST drops -8%after it guides lower and says the competitive retail pricing environment twill hurt earnings. Long traders are receiving the melt-up everyone is looking for with the Dow well above 16K and the SPX above 1800. The dollar/yen remains elevated all day long at 101.30 (weaker yen) creating the bull fuel for the stock market. The Fed and BOJ central bankers are the market; a tag team of stock market pumpers all year long. A chart circulates among floor traders and across the Internet that shows the SPX chart overlaying the chart from the 1929 crash period where the SPX would be at the exact top now. Very few take the graph seriously and instead traders keep buying stocks to fuel the market upside. The day ends in a bullish euphoria with the SPX closing above 1800 for the first time in history. The SPX is up 9 points, +0.5%, printing a new all-time intraday high at 1804.84 and new all-time closing high at 1804.76. The Dow remains above 16K, up 55 points, +0.3%, printing a new all-time intraday high at 16068.78 and new all-time closing high at 16064.77. The Nasdaq is up +0.6% to 3992 remaining 8 points shy of the 4K round number. The RUT is up +0.5% printing a new all-time intraday high at 1125.64 and new all-time closing high at 1124.92. Trannies are up +04% but do not print another all-time high. Biotechs, a stalwart outperforming sector this year, lead higher this week. For the week, the SPX gains +0.4%, up 7 consecutive weeks, Dow +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.1% and RUT +0.8%. The small caps slightly outperformed to the upside due to the strong biotech sector. Copper is strongly higher for 3 consecutive days. The 10-year yield is 2.75% and the 2-10 yield spread drops to 249 (banks need to see a spread of 255+ to confirm happy times ahead). Fed’s Tarullo says global central bankers need to develop tools to avoid future bank runs. The Whitehouse delays the healthcare enrollment deadline for 2014 from 12/15/13 to 12/23/13. In addition, the start of the 2015 enrollment period in October 2014 is changed to November 2014, one week after the mid-term elections instead of before the elections. This allows the democrats an advantage since health costs will sky rocket due to the low enrollment of healthy young people, and folks will not see these big increases in their premiums until after they vote. The Whitehouse, and democrats as a whole, have stopped using the ‘Obamacare’ moniker. Any mention of Obamacare on the websites has been removed. The president no longer says the word ‘Obamacare’ in his speeches. He is distancing himself from the debacle since his approval ratings are dropping. Obamacare is now part of the American lexicon and folks will not easily shift to saying the ‘Affordable Care Act’. Of course, republicans will tout the word ‘Obamacare’ even more going forward. Allegion will replace JCP in the S&P 500. JCP drops -1.4% AH’s.
On Saturday, 11/23/13, MSFT’s Xbox One sales topped 1 million on the first day matching PS4’s strong release. The U.S. Energy Department is selling off its multi-million dollar Fisker loan guarantee to a Chinese business man resulting in a taxpayer loss of about $140 million. The loss strikes another blow to the Obama Administration’s green policy which previously lost millions of taxpayer dollars with the Solyndra debacle. The monthly price of electricity continues to trend higher in America providing a touch of inflation in an overall ongoing disinflationary and deflationary economy. Comet ISON is set to move around the sun over the coming days. Solar flare activity increases but remains far below what is expected since this year is the peak year for the 11-year solar cycle. Solar flare events, although rare, are important, since they can cause serious electronics disruptions which may impact markets.
On Sunday, 11/24/13, there are 4 days until Thanksgiving, 31 days (4 weeks remaining for the retail holiday shopping season) until Christmas and 37 days until the EOY. There are 3-1/2 trading days remaining in November. There are 24 trading days remaining in the year. Thanksgiving is typically a bullish week for stocks and Friday, the day after Thanksgiving is the most bullish day of the entire year.
On Monday, 11/25/13, Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. 2-Year Note Auction.
On Tuesday, 11/26/13, Housing Starts. FHFA House Price Index. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Consumer Confidence at 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Richmond Fed Mfg Index. 5-Year Note Auction. CBRL. TIF. HPQ. DSW. TIVO.
On Wednesday, 11/27/13, Mortgage Applications. Durable Goods Orders. Jobless Claims. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM will create a market pivot point. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. Leading indicators. Oil Inventories. Natty Gas Inventories (one-day early). 7-Year Note Auction. Farm Prices. Markets tend to be bullish moving into and through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
On Thursday, 11/28/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of the Thanksgiving holiday. Happy Hanukkah.
On Friday, 11/29/13, Markets Reopen for Trading but Close Early at 1 PM EST. Today is EOM and the most bullish day of the year. Markets are typically bullish from the last day of the month through the first 4 days of the new month. Monday evening is a new moon and markets are typically weak through the new moon. Today is Black Friday one of the top busiest retail sales days of the entire year that will provide an early gauge on the retail shopping season. Watch to see how full the mall parking lots are, or aren’t.
On Saturday, 11/30/13, ….
On Sunday, 12/1/13, …..
On Monday, 12/2/13, Asia PMI’s. Europe PMI’s. ISM Mfg Index 10 AM which will create a market pivot point. A new moon occurs in the evening. Markets are typically bearish moving through the new moon.
On Tuesday, 12/3/13, Motor Vehicle Sales.
On Wednesday, 12/4/13, Mortgage Applications. ADP Employment Report. International Trade. Productivity and Costs. New Home Sales. ISM Non-Mfg Index. Oil Inventories. Beige Book 2 PM will create a market pivot point.
On Thursday, 12/5/13, ECB Rate Decision 7:45 AM EST and Draghi Press Conference 8:30 AM. The ECB cut rates last month but the euro remains elevated. Draghi needs a weaker euro to stimulate the European sick man. He likely needs another LTRO program (Europe’s QE) so his press conference will be key. Chain Store Sales. Challenger Job-Cut Report. Jobless Claims. GDP. Factory Orders. Natty Gas Inventories.
On Friday, 12/6/13, Monthly Jobs Report. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. Personal Income and Outlays. Fed’s Plosser speaks. Consumer Credit.
On Saturday, 12/7/13, ….
On Sunday, 12/8/13, …
On Monday, 12/9/13, ….
On Tuesday, 12/10/13, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. JOLTS Job Openings Report. Wholesale Trade. 3-Year Note Auction.
On Wednesday, 12/11/13, Mortgage Applications. Oil Inventories. 10-Year Note Auction. Treasury Budget 2 PM.
On Thursday, 12/12/13, Jobless Claims. Retail Sales. Import and Export Prices. Business Inventories. Natty Gas Inventories. 30-Year Bond Auction.
On Friday, 12/13/13, PPI. Congress provides a detailed road map to handle the U.S. budget crisis moving forward.
On Saturday, 12/14/13, …
On Sunday, 12/15/13, during Q4, European bank stress tests will begin and take one year to complete (there are likely 10% of the 128 banks undercapitalized with no clear way on how to recapitalize these troubled institutions). The one-year timeline is chosen to keep stretching things out in the hope that the European economy recovers before further bad news occurs. Also during Q4, Germany’s high court must decide if the ECB’s OMT program is constitutional and Europe must finalize all plans for the new banking union.
On Monday, 12/16/13, Empire State Mfg Index. TIC data. Industrial Production. 2-Year Note Auction.
On Tuesday, 12/17/13, FOMC 2-day meeting begins. Is QE taper talk on the table? CPI. Housing Market Index. 5-Year Note Auction. A full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon. Markets are typically bullish from a Tuesday low to a Wednesday high for OpEx week.
On Wednesday, 12/18/13, Mortgage Applications. Housing Starts. Oil Inventories. 7-Year Note Auction. FOMC Meeting Announcement and Forecasts 2 PM which will create a market pivot point. Chairman Bernanke Press Conference and Q&A from 2:30 PM to 3:30 PM will move markets.
On Thursday, 12/19/13, BOJ 2-day meeting begins. Jobless Claims. Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Natty Gas Inventories. 5-Year TIPS Auction.
On Friday, 12/20/13, BOJ rate and policy decision. OpEx Quadruple Witching. GDP. Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations. Kansas City Fed Mfg Index.
On Saturday, 12/21/13, ….
On Sunday, 12/22/13, ….
On Monday, 12/23/13, the initial sign-up period for Obamacare ends (extended from 12/15/13) for those beginning insurance on 1/1/14. The Whitehouse needs 7 million people (mainly healthy young people) to sign-up by March, otherwise, the program will start bleeding money and require a future bailout by the taxpayers. Personal Income and Outlays. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point.
On Tuesday, 12/24/13, Durable Goods Orders. FHFA House Price Index. New Home Sales. Richmond Fed Mfg Index. Markets Close Early for Christmas Eve.
On Wednesday, 12/25/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of Christmas holiday.
On Thursday, 12/26/13, Markets Reopen for Trading. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Oil Inventories.
On Friday, 12/27/13, Natty Gas Inventories.
On Saturday, 12/28/13, …..
On Sunday, 12/29/13, …..
On Monday, 12/30/13, Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. Farm Prices.
On Tuesday, 12/31/13, EOM. EOQ4. EOY2013. S&P Case-Shiller. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM will create a market pivot. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market pivot point.
----------------------------- 2014 ----------------------
On Wednesday, 1/1/14, Markets are Closed in Observance of New Years holiday. A major Bradley turn date occurs where a major market directional move is expected in the 12/23/13 through 1/8/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one way of the other. Another Bradley turns in quick order so the beginning of the year may be a wild ride for the stock market. A new moon occurs. Markets are typically bearish moving through the new moon.
On Thursday, 1/2/14, Asia PMI’s. Europe PMI’s. Markets Reopen for Trading. Motor Vehicle Sales. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Natty Gas Inventories. Oil Inventories (one-day delayed).
On Friday, 1/3/14, …..
On Thursday, 1/9/14, a Bradley turn date occurs where a market directional move is expected in the 1/2/14 through 1/16/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one way of the other.
On Wednesday, 1/15/14, a Continuing Resolution (CR) is needed to fund and keep the U.S. government open.
On Thursday, 1/16/14, a full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon.
On Wednesday, 1/29/14, Chairman Bernanke conducts his last official two-day meeting (1/28 and 1/29) as Chair of the FOMC.
On Friday, 1/31/14, Chairman Bernanke’s term ends at the Fed. New Chair Yellen takes over.
On Friday, 2/7/14, the Debt Ceiling Limit is hit where the U.S. may default on obligations. Treasury Secretary Lew will use extraordinary measures to extend this time forward so late February or early March is a likelier deadline. Winter Olympics begin in Sochi, Russia, through 2/23/14.
On Saturday, 3/15/13, the deadline for the Obamacare sign up period ends. The Whitehouse needs 7 million people (mainly healthy young people) to sign-up by today or the program will be bleeding money profusely and require a taxpayer bailout.
On Wednesday, 3/19/14, new Fed Chair Yellen talks at the conclusion of her first FOMC meeting (3/18 and 3/19).
In February/March, Fed Chair Yellen testifies before Congress.
In March, the ESM is officially “fully operational.” The Euro banking union is in place after delays from January 2013 to January 2014 and now to March 2014.
In April, MSFT no longer supports Windows XP.
In June, employer mandate provisions begin for Obamacare with many workers likely forced into part-time 30 hours per week or less employment.
On Tuesday, 11/4/14, mid-term elections. The 2-year presidential race for 2016 begins.
On Saturday, 11/15/14, the enrollment period for Obamacare in 2015 begins (pushed forward from 10/15/14 by the Whitehouse and democrats in November 2014; voters will not experience the sticker shock of higher insurance premiums, since too few healthy young people are signing up to support the program, until after the election).
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