Thursday, November 28, 2013

SPX Daily Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence Upper Band Violations

Traders, analysts and pundits all say buy stocks with both hands. Fed big-wigs Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen all say there are no asset bubbles in markets. The Dow is over 16K, SPX above 1800 and Nasdaq over 4K. As Timbuk 3 sings, 'the future's so bright, I gotta where shades'. The blue rising wedge pattern continues, appearing like an alien spaceship lost from the History channel. There is a tiny bit more space available for price in the apex of the wedge. Note how price bounced off the bottom rail of the wedge. The market bulls know that it's ovah, as Keystone's friends in the Bronx would say, if price drops under the lower blue trend line. Bulls are fine if they can stay above the trend line. The price failures from a rising wedge can be quite dramatic. The red lines show negative divergence wanting to see a spank down, however, the RSI and money flow are trying to squeeze out a little more upside juice. 

The upper standard deviation band has been violated twice over the last couple weeks so the door is open for a move to the middle band, the 20-day MA at 1781.08, and the lower band to 1746. The 50-day MA is 1740.44 moving higher. There is strong horizontal support at 1745 as well so there is a strong confluence forming at 1745-ish that may act as a magnet moving forward. The small brown circles show how volume slides lower for the last month as price continues to make new highs. So even though the SPX is now above 1800, traders are showing less interest. Everyone must be looking around to see who the bigger fool is, but only see a mirror.

Projection is a spank down any day forward. The RSI and money flow may create a couple day jog move, which would be in concert with potential prints inside or around the tip of the apex of the wedge, however, the projection is lower. As stated above, the failures from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. Friday is a shortened session, light volume and the most bullish day of the year, so a sideways shuffle into Monday and Tuesday is a reasonable expectation. Traders are likely taking comfort in turkey and stuffing for now, but next week they may take the turkeys place, walking to the stump out back and laying their heads down. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11/30/13 at 8:01 AM:  Price prints inside the apex of the rising wedge during Friday's shortened session. What happens next?

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