Saturday, November 9, 2013
Keystone's Trading Week in Review and Key Events Ahead for Markets 11/9/13
On Friday, 11/1/13, China PMI is slightly better than expected (18-month high) although smaller manufacturers are clearly struggling. Copper and commodities receive a slight lift. Sony lowers profit forecasts and collapses -12% losing 2 billion in market cap in a heartbeat. Nissan cuts sales forecasts. India gold sales are uncharacteristically slow this year ahead of the Diwali festival 11/3/13. Renault drops -4%. RBS sets up an internal bad bank division to handle toxic assets and bad paper. European banks remain sick since they are unable to implement a Tarp-type policy like the U.S. in 2009. Revolts and riots continue in France over the excessive tax policies. Hollande stands firm on taxing the wealthy, such as soccer stars, despite the disastrous effects. German lawmakers meet with Snowden, the NSA whistleblower, to gather more information on the U.S. spying and potentially offer him a job or have him testify to sort out the extent of the spying; these actions strain U.S.-Germany relations. Snowden would like to testify before Congress if possible. The euro is 1.3530 and the dollar is 80.41. Preliminary information shows that only a shocking miniscule 6 people enrolled into Obamacare via the web site during the first 24 hours of operation. As of 10/3/13 (two days in), approximately 250 enrollment applications had been processed. This number does not add up since the Whitehouse said 6 million visitors had accessed the site by 10/3/13. Each day creates further confusion and now several democrats are distancing themselves from the Obamacare debacle. GOOG, YHOO, RHAT, ORCL and other tech companies offer help to make the web site functional. This is not surprising since the tech companies apparently knew the NSA was accessing their data bases through back doors violating privacy policies but they did nothing (the large tech companies and government are all in bed together). Fed’s Plosser says an opportunity was missed to begin the tapering of QE in September. CVX misses on earnings with profit dropping -6%. The broad indexes open for trading and move sideways. ISM Mfg Index is up strongly. Markets drift lower since good news is bad news (the Fed may begin tapering QE if the economy improves). At 10:36 AM, the Nasdaq OMX Group closes the options exchange due to technical errors. A significant increase in order entries (probably due to HFT) inhibited the system’s ability to handle the option volume or to provide accurate quotes. Trading continues on 11 other options trading platforms. At about 12:30 PM EST, a suicidal, mentally ill man opens fire at LAX (pronounced L-A-ex; the Los Angeles International Airport) killing an airport employee. The incident dominates the news coverage. Wall Street is concerned that the incident is terrorism but this fear quickly subsides. Equities recover as the afternoon moves along and the broad indexes are flat on the day with the SPX and Dow higher, Nasdaq flat and RUT small caps negative. For the week, the SPX is flat at +0.11% squeezing out a new weekly high at 1761.64 with a doji candlestick. The Dow is flat unable to print a new weekly high, about 40 points shy, at 15616. The Nasdaq loses -0.5% this week and the RUT loses -2.0%, a drastic negative change for small caps. The RUT prints an outside reversal week moving higher than the previous week but then closing below, which is typically a bearish signal for markets. Energy stocks are weak with CVX the largest Dow loser. The SPX and Dow are on a 4-week winning streak. U.S. car and truck sales slip in October. Gold and oil drop about -3% this week. The Nadsaq Options Market does not reopen for trading today. After the bell, Berkshire (Buffett) misses on earnings but top line revenue beats. The new iPad sales are strong. RBS suspends two traders in connection with the Forex currency-fixing scandal. Fed’s Plosser says he is more worried about the exit plan from QE (but he is a hawk). The Fed wants the banks to test whether they could survive if the stock market drops 50% in value. Fitch rating agency revises Spain’s debt outlook to stable from negative. China says their submarines in the Pacific Ocean are outfitted with nuclear missiles that can strike American cities.
On Saturday, 11/2/13, China’s Xi says healthy economic growth is ahead. Cuts to the food stamp program begin which will hurt the disadvantaged folks and also companies such as WMT where the food stamps are typically redeemed. The sun has erupted with nearly 30 solar flares over the last week. This sends radiation and electromagnetic waves towards earth that may interrupt communication and other electronic signals. The sun is at solar maximum this year which is the peak of the 11-year solar cycle but the year has been relatively quiet. Is the giant awakening to end the year stronger? Four of the flares are the stronger X-class. Interestingly, solar flare eruptions very often coincide with market selloffs such as the August 2011 waterfall crash. World-wide earthquakes and storms increase over the last month.
On Sunday, 11/3/13, the Obamacare web site is down for maintenance all weekend long. The concern over the healthcare law grows as more and more folks, who voted for the president, feel slighted seeing their premiums double and triple with deductibles increasing. Folks will be forced to pay for such things as maternity care if you are a senior or a man and prostrate coverage if you are a woman. The enrollment of only 6 people on the first day is shameful. Nighttime comedian Jay Leno quips “ there are more people that walked on the moon than signed up for Obamacare.” The enrollment also appears to be weighted towards Medicaid rather than the healthy young folks the program needs to be financially stable. The contractors warned for over 6 weeks prior to the Obamacare roll-out that the site is not ready but the administration kept saying all is fine each day and went ahead with the release anyway. One of the contracts awarded for the Obamacare web site appears to be an Obama family friend that may have received a no-bid contract so Congress plans on investigating. People are disappointed in the president telling folks they can keep their plan for the last 3 years purely so he could get reelected but he apparently knew all along it was untrue. Further, the president will not acknowledge the lie and now says the plans that folks liked, and could afford, are ‘bad plans’. Enrollment numbers are promised by 11/15/13, 12 days away, and the Obamacare web site is supposed to be fixed and fully operational on 11/30/13, only 27 days away. A worldwide poll now shows that Russian leader Putin is considered a stronger leader than President Obama for the first time ever.
On Monday, 11/4/13, Japan trading is closed for the Culture Day holiday. India is not trading to celebrate Dawali. Concerns over the coconut supply continue as groves in areas such as the Philippines become older and less productive. China HSBC data shows growth stabilizing, however, copper and metals are weak in early trading. French farmers continue to riot despite Hollande rolling back the ‘ecotax’ on large trucks. Ryanair cuts forecasts and the stock dumps -10%. Alcatel-Lucent loses -8%. Germany has no plans on offering asylum to Snowden, the NSA whistleblower, but does seek further information on the spying that occurred against Merkel and other European leaders. BBRY’s plan to sell itself falls through, the CEO Heins is fired and the stock drops -15%. The stock plummets to -19% and is halted. Fed’s Bullard appears on business television creating buoyancy in the S&P futures rising to +7.5 before the opening bell. RLGY and VMC both report strong earnings and jump higher at the opening bell encouraging the housing sector. K beats on earnings but lowers guidance and plans on axing 7% of its workforce. Firings are bullish for stock prices and K jumps +2%. Equities are buoyant to begin the day but weak copper and commodities are limiting the market upside. Factory Orders are better than expected creating a positive string of economic data over the last few days, however, good news is bad news for stock prices since the QE tapering may come sooner than expected. Markets travel sideways in flat trading all day long. SAC Capital reaches a settlement with Attorney General Bharara where the company will plead guilty and pay a large fine, pending approval by judges. Honda recalls Odyssey minivans. A photo is snapped of HHS Secretary Sebelius, in charge of the Obamacare debacle, as she is handed a ‘Web Sites for Dummies’ book. The look on her face is priceless making her a further laughing stock and national embarrassment. The Obamacare web sites will now shut down from 1 AM to 5 AM EST each day forward to provide programmers time to fix the code and run tests. Identity thieves are now targeting the Obamacare web sites. Congressional leaders, including some democrats, want to see the websites taken off line until these issues are handled properly. Ex-GOOG CEO Schmidt says the NSA using back doors to access anyone’s personal information is ‘outrageous’ but it is likely faux outrage since he probably knew about it and is likely trying to calm the situation and possibly run cover ahead of further negative information yet to be released. The volume is paltry in today’ trading so the bulls float the markets higher into the closing bell with gains for the broad indexes. Fed’s Rosengren says the Fed should remain accommodative moving forward which creates market lift. Trannies print another new all-time high at 7129 so Dow Theorists will watch to see if the Dow Industrials can print a new high to confirm the upward market trend, or not. The airlines are up +2 and +3% today pumping the Trannies. Energy is strong especially fracking stocks. XOM gains +2.5%. Banks are weak. TPH and WY (lumber) will merge. JNJ must pay over $2 billion to settle a fraud lawsuit and ends the day lower. The 10-year yield is 2.61%. A survey shows that over one-fourth of Americans perceive China as the dominant economic power. The Twitter IPO (TWTR) is oversubscribed and the price is raised from $17-$18 to $23-$25. Global chip (semiconductors) sales increase +9% compared to one year ago.
On Tuesday, 11/5/13, China’s Li warns against loose money policies and says economic growth must stay at 7.2% or higher to ensure a stable job market. Nissan plunges -12% on weak earnings. BMW drops -4% on weak earnings and a high valuation. The EU cuts Eurozone forecasts. The ECB is concerned over the low European inflation. European banks are weak. ECA (Encana Canadian oil) to cut 20% of its work force. AAPL iPad sales are far stronger than expected. Sixteen IPO’s hit this week, the largest number in a couple decades. An ETF named ‘IPO’, that is a compilation of IPO’s, recently opened for trading. There have been over 180 IPO’s this year far past the 128 for 2012 and 125 for 2011. AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, JPM and CSCO are the most widely held stocks in 401(k) plans. The broad indexes drop like a stone at the opening bell with the Dow down triple digits and the SPX dropping from 1766 to 1756. As the markets tumble lower, two Fed papers circulate (English and Wilcox) written by Fed economists that state the case for continued QE and potentially decreasing the unemployment target which would maintain lower rates for far longer than anyone expected. The stock market catapults higher off the QE crack cocaine happy news and the Fed stick-saves the markets once again. The Fed is the markets and their main mission is to keep the stock market elevated. Equities recover all the day’s losses and then meander flat to finish the day slightly lower. Small caps continue to weaken. After the bell, TSLA beats on earnings but falls short of estimates and the stock drops -10%. The Obamacare mess continues with the president now trying to change his oft-repeated mantra about keeping your doctor and your plan (which was untrue) by saying you can keep your plan if it is unaffected by the new law. Folks are disappointed in the president since he promised things he knew were untrue and he said it solely to get reelected. President Obama’s favorable rating now drops into the 30’s at 39%, the lowest of his presidency. There are far more older and ill folks signing up for Obamacare than young people (that are needed to fund the program). The Obama administration is subpoenaed to turn over the enrollment numbers but they have promised the numbers next week. A web site, www.mycancellation.com, gains popularity where folks are displaying their health insurance rejection letters due to Obamacare.
On Wednesday, 11/6/13, TM raises sales forecasts but traders actually expected more of an increase. The weaker yen boosts car exports. S&P futures are +9. HSBC walks away from talks with the EU to settle the Euribor scandal. Greek labor unions go on strike. U.K. industrial production is robust and the encouraging economic data continues. Fed’s Williams says the ‘stock market doesn’t seem highly valued’. How odd is it that the Fed is now directly commenting on the stock market? Bart Chilton says he will depart from his CTFC post over the coming weeks. Mortgage Applications are down despite lower rates. HHS Secretary Sebelius, responsible for the ongoing Obamacare debacle, testifies before the Senate. The broad indexes launch higher at the opening bell but reverse to the downside at 10 AM. During the session, tech, biotech, small caps and Trannies all sell off but the Dow explodes higher. Traders are taking profits in all the large gainers this year and moving money into the perceived safety of blue chip, dividend and consumer staple stocks. The SPX finishes up 8 points, +0.4%, to 1770, but does not print a new all-time high. The Dow is up 129 points, +0.8%, printing a new all-time high at 15750.29 and new all-time closing high at 15746.88. CVX and XOM are big leaders. The Dow action serves to pump the dividend stock bubble higher. Nasdaq, RUT and TRAN all finish down. High-flyers GOOG, TSLA, LNKD and others are sold off. The biotech, a leading sector this year, is bludgeoned with the IBB -3% and XBI -4%. After the bell, the Twitter IPO (TWTR) is priced at $26 above the $23-$25 range that is a revised higher range from $17-$18. Obamacare is spoofed during the Country Music Awards and becomes a laughing stock for the nation.
On Thursday, 11/7/13, Asia markets are lower across the board. China financials are under pressure due to a crackdown on shadow banking. Lenovo sales are strong so it pops +2%. TM drops -1.3%. Bitcoin rises to a new high. Societe Generale earnings miss estimates but it trades +2.4% higher. BOE leaves their key rate unchanged at 0.5%. ECB’s Draghi is under pressure to cut rates as Europe falls into disinflation and deflation. In the last 4 months, Europe’s inflation has fallen from 1.6% to 1.3% to 1.1% to 0.7%. The ECB’s mandate and mission is to push inflation to 2% but the numbers are obviously slipping the wrong way. In a surprise move, the ECB Rate Decision is to cut the key rate to 0.25%. The euro drops through 1.35 to 1.3375. Futures pop large on the news; S&P’s +7, Dow +70, Nadsaq +10. At the press conference, Draghi says Europe may experience prolonged low inflation. He says monetary policy will remain accommodative with low or even lower rates for as long as needed. Draghi is speaking very dovishly and the euro falls through 1.33. The dollar pops and commodities all drop including gold, oil and copper, however, equities rise. The global race to debase heats up again. Traders do not care if the Fed is beating the dollar lower with QE, or the BOJ weakening the yen, or the ECB blasting the euro lower, since it all adds up to easy money to buy stocks. The advanced reading for Q3 GDP is far stronger than expected at 2.8%. Markets are very jumpy moving into the opening bell. The broad indexes leap higher at the opening bell but retreat in short order. The major indexes all turn negative as the Twitter IPO (TWTR) is set to begin trading on the NYSE. At 10:47 AM, TWTR opens at 45.10, up +73% from the $26 IPO price. Twitter opens 77 minutes after the opening bell the longest time for any IPO hitting the markets in history (the NYSE is careful to not repeat the Nasdaq FB debacle). At 11:01 AM, TWTR hits 50, and this is in a weak overall tape. The market cap was set at about $18 billion with the $26 price but at $50 the market cap is over 35 billion. Over half of TWTR’s shares change hands in the first hour of trading. An analyst slaps a sell rating on TWTR with a price target of 30. The TWTR IPO appears off to a flawless start but at 11:25 AM, transactions are halted for over-the-counter (OTC) stocks due to a lack of quotation information. The OTC resumes trading 3-1/2 hours later at 3 PM and blames one of its network service providers for the computer glitch. The broad indexes begin selling off in force as the afternoon moves along. Oil, gold, copper and commodities are all weak as the lower euro sends the dollar higher. The Dow collapses triple digits and the S&P’s are down over 20 points. The Nasdaq is collapsing almost -2%. High-flyers are thrown overboard again with QCOM, AMZN, YELP and Z down from -4% to -7%. FB and BIDU dump -2%. A third TSLA car catches fire and the stock plummets -8% now down -23% in 3 days and -28% off the top one month ago. The NHTSA will conduct an inquiry to determine if Tesla automobiles have a safety issue. SCTY is hit as well dropping -20% so Elon Musk would have been better off to stay at home today. WFM is hit -10% on weak earnings. At the close, the SPX is down 23 points, -1.3%, to 1747 using the 20-day MA as support. The Dow loses 153 points, -1.0%, to 15594. The Nasdaq dumps 75 points, -1.9%, to 3857, looking at the 4K goal in the rear-view mirror. The RUT loses 20 points, -1.8%, to 1079. The mo-mo stocks are rolling over and tech and small caps are leading lower on a large volume day; the largest volume day since the move off the September market top. The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios remain low showing that traders remain complacent, fearless and not concerned about the selloff. TWTR closes below the 45.10 opening price. After the bell, GRPN dumps another -8% after losing -5% during the session on weak guidance but recovers. PCLN dumps -9% losing the 1000 level but recovers back above 1000 after the company announces a new CEO. DIS earnings are in-line but traders dump the stock -3% in AH’s trading. Worries surface over the retail holiday spending season. Marc Faber warns that the markets are in a worse position than 2008. President Obama bows to the public outrage and attempts an apology for lying that everyone could keep their current insurance, but the phrasing is a head-scratcher and confusing; ‘”I am sorry they find themselves in this situation….” The president is trying to apologize since the democrats are now complaining and turning ranks but he is unable to emphatically state an apology since he would admit that he is lying. What a web the politicians, on both sides, weave for themselves. There is talk of now delaying Obamacare perhaps for one year’s time. Complaints are increasing that the Obamacare web site now has misleading information purposely listing low premium amounts that are known to not reflect what people would actually pay. The Obamacare debacle is a daily soap opera sucking all the oxygen out of the room.
On Friday, 11/8/13, China exports rebound. Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda), the strongest storm to ever hit land fall, a Category 5 storm, hits the Philippines with 200 MPH winds and 20-foot storm surges. IAG (British Airways and Iberia Airlines) profit doubles and 3100 jobs are cut so the stock jumps +5%. S&P rating agency cuts France’s credit rating to AA from AA+ based on weak growth ahead. It should not have been a surprise but it is with the 10-year bond yield jumping to 2.39%. France finance minister Moscovici says he ‘regrets the critical and inaccurate S&P decision’. Hollande defends the French policies. Draghi’s rate cut yesterday may have been due in part to him knowing the that the S&P rating cut on France was imminent. The eruo is 1.3419. The health of the Slovenian banking system is worsening. European markets trade lower. At 4:30 AM, S&P futures are +5 with the Dow +21 and Nasdaq +12 recovering off yesterday’s big selloff. C says the equity markets should rally another +13% by the end of 2014 which would place the SPX at 1975. What are they smoking? Perhaps they will be correct? The Monthly Jobs Report surprises to the upside with 204 K jobs but the unemployment rate ticks up to 7.3%. The prior months’ job numbers are revised upwards. Oddly, average hours worked drops so companies actually do not need to hire anyone if they cannot keep the existing employees busy. Futures drop on the news with the S&P’s -6, Dow -60 and Nasdaq -6 since traders worry that the Fed will now taper QE sooner rather than later. This is confirmed by the 10-year yield catapulting higher from 2.61% to 2.72%. The futures recover towards the flat line ahead of the opening bell. MCD sales are in line with expectations. GPS jumps +7% on improving retail sales outperforming all the negative prognostications. The broad indexes begin the day moving sideways with upward buoyancy. Consumer Sentiment is 72.0 the lowest initial read on sentiment since March. Sad consumers tend to not spend as much during the holiday retail season. The broad indexes gain strength to the upside with the S&P’s up 14 and Dow up 82. The utilities, telecom and home builder sectors are beaten down due to higher yields. The 10-year yield is 2.75%. Dip-buyers enter the market in force undaunted by yesterday’s selling and launch markets higher into the weekend. The broad indexes recover all the losses from yesterday. This is not surprising since the uber market complacency remains as identified by the low put/call ratios. The SPX gains 23 points, +1.3%, to 1771. The Dow gains 168 points, +1.1%, to 15761.78, printing a new all-time closing high but not an all-time intraday high. The Nasdaq gains 62 points, +1.6%, to 3919. The RUT gains 21 points, +1.9%, to 1100. Financials lead higher with the XLF up +2.3%. For the week, the SPX is up +0.5%, the Dow +0.9%, Nasdaq -0.1% and RUT +0.4%. VIX is under 13. The CPCE put/call ratio is a low 0.51 continuing to signal rampant complacency and a significant market top at hand. TWTR loses -7% on its second day of trading. After the bell, Chairman Bernanke says ‘the unemployment rate probably understates the degree of slack in the labor market’. Jeff Zients, charged with fixing the Obamacare web site, says progress is “very slow” and is a “long way from where it needs to be.” The Whitehouse is backing away from the promise to have a fully functioning Obamacare web site by the end of the month. The president is taking more and more criticism over his half-hearted apology yesterday. An AAPL iPad catches fire at a Vodaphone store. Apple is given the iPad so they can analyze the problem.
On Saturday, 11/9/13, Super Typhoon Haiyan kills over 100 people creating mass destruction across the Philippines heading for Vietnam. China inflation is at an 8-month high at 3.2% mainly driven by higher food prices. Interestingly, prior Chinese dynasties fell due to violent social unrest caused by higher food costs. A train carrying crude oil derails and explodes in Alabama creating an intense fire and perhaps reigniting talk about the Keystone Pipeline project (that President Obama continues to prevent) that is a much safer way to transport oil.
On Sunday, 11/10/13, ….
On Monday, 11/11/13, Veteran’s Day. Banks are Closed but Markets are Open. 2-day healthcare conference begins-watch healthcare sector (XLV).
On Tuesday, 11/12/13, Fed’s Fisher, Kocherlakota and Lockhart speak today. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. 3-Year Note Auction. Banking and financial services conference-watch the banks (XLF). Keystone’s Eclipse Indicator targets 11/12/13 through 12/10/13 as having potential for a major market selloff to begin.
On Wednesday, 11/13/13, Mortgage Applications. Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations. 10-Year Note Auction. Treasury Budget 2 PM. CSCO earnings. Industrials conference-watch industrials (XLI, CAT, ETN, HON, etc…). Chairman Bernanke speaks 7 PM.
On Thursday, 11/14/13, International Trade. Jobless Claims. Productivity and Costs. Fed’s Plosser speaks. Natty Gas Inventories. Oil Inventories (one-day delayed). 30-Year Bond Auction. New Fed Chair Nominee Yellen appears before the Senate Banking Committee. WMT, KSS, JWN earnings (watch XRT and RTH).
On Friday, 11/15/13, OpEx. Empire State Mfg Survey. Import and Export Prices. Industrial Production. Wholesale Trade 10 AM will create a market pivot point. The Obama administration provides detailed enrollment numbers for Obamacare.
On Saturday, 11/16/13, ……
On Sunday, 11/17/13, a full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon.
On Monday, 11/18/123, TIC data. Housing Market Index 10 AM. E-Commerce Retail Sales. Fed’s Plosser and Kocherlakota speak.
On Tuesday, 11/19/13, Employment Cost Index. Fed’s Evans speaks. Chairman Bernanke speaks 7 PM EST.
On Wednesday, 11/20/13, BOJ 2-day meeting begins. Mortgage Applications. CPI. Retail Sales. Business Inventories and Existing Home Sales 10AM will create a market pivot point. Oil Inventories. Fed’s Bullard speaks. FOMC Minutes 2 PM will create a market pivot point.
On Thursday, 11/21/13, BOJ rate and policy decision. The BOJ must deliver more QE to weaken the yen to send the Nikkei and U.S. equities higher moving into early 2014. If the BOJ does not deliver the easy money, the yen will strengthen and the Nikkei will sell off. Asian PMI’s. European PMI’s. Fed’s Bullard speaks. Jobless Claims. PPI. Philly Fed. Natty Gas Inventories. 10-Year TIPS Auction.
On Friday, 11/22/13, Kansas City Fed Mfg Index.
On Saturday, 11/23/13, ….
On Sunday, 11/24/13, ….
On Monday, 11/25/13, Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. 2-Year Note Auction.
On Tuesday, 11/26/13, GDP. Housing Starts. FHFA House Price Index. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Richmond Fed Mfg Index. 5-Year Note Auction.
On Wednesday, 11/27/13, Mortgage Applications. Durable Goods Orders. Jobless Claims. Personal Income and Outlays. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM will create a market pivot point. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. Leading indicators. Oil Inventories. Natty Gas Inventories (one-day early). 7-Year Note Auction. Farm Prices. Markets tend to be bullish moving into and through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
On Thursday, 11/28/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of Thanksgiving holiday.
On Friday, 11/29/13, Markets Reopen for Trading but Close Early at 1 PM EST. Today is EOM. Markets are typically bullish from the last day of the month through the first 4 days of the new month.
On Saturday, 11/30/13, ….
On Sunday, 12/1/13, …..
On Monday, 12/2/13, Asia PMI’s. Europe PMI’s. ISM Mfg Index 10 AM which will create a market pivot point. A new moon occurs in the evening. Markets are typically bearish moving through the new moon.
On Tuesday, 12/3/13, Motor Vehicle Sales.
On Wednesday, 12/4/13, Mortgage Applications. ADP Employment Report. International Trade. Productivity and Costs. New Home Sales. ISM Non-Mfg Index. Oil Inventories. Beige Book 2 PM will create a market pivot point.
On Thursday, 12/5/13, ECB Rate Decision 7:45 AM EST and Draghi Press Conference 8:30 AM. A rate cut will drop the euro, pop the dollar, and likely send commodities lower. Chain Store Sales. Challenger Job-Cut Report. Jobless Claims. Factory Orders. Natty Gas Inventories.
On Friday, 12/6/13, Monthly Jobs Report. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. Fed’s Plosser speaks. Consumer Credit.
On Saturday, 12/7/13, ….
On Sunday, 12/8/13, …
On Monday, 12/9/13, ….
On Tuesday, 12/10/13, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. JOLTS Job Openings Report. Wholesale Trade. 3-Year Note Auction.
On Wednesday, 12/11/13, Mortgage Applications. Oil Inventories. 10-Year Note Auction. Treasury Budget 2 PM.
On Thursday, 12/12/13, Jobless Claims. Retail Sales. Import and Export Prices. Business Inventories. Natty Gas Inventories. 30-Year Bond Auction.
On Friday, 12/13/13, PPI. Congress provides a detailed road map to handle the U.S. budget crisis moving forward.
On Saturday, 12/14/13, …
On Sunday, 12/15/13, the initial sign-up period for Obamacare ends for those beginning insurance on 1/1/14. The Whitehouse needs 7 million people (mainly healthy young people) to sign-up by March, otherwise, the program will start bleeding money and require a future bailout by the taxpayers.
During Q4, European bank stress tests will begin and take one year to complete (there are likely 10% of the 128 banks undercapitalized with no clear way on how to recapitalize these troubled institutions). The one-year timeline is chosen to keep stretching things out in the hope that the European economyrecovers before further bad news occurs. Germany’s high court must decide if the ECB’s OMT program is constitutional. Europe must finalize all plans for the new banking union.
On Monday, 12/16/13, Empire State Mfg Index. TIC data. Industrial Production. 2-Year Note Auction.
On Tuesday, 12/17/13, FOMC 2-day meeting begins. Is QE taper talk on the table? CPI. Housing Market Index. 5-Year Note Auction. A full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon.
On Wednesday, 12/18/13, Mortgage Applications. Housing Starts. Oil Inventories. 7-Year Note Auction. FOMC Meeting Announcement and Forecasts 2 PM which will create a market pivot point. Chairman Bernanke Press Conference and Q&A from 2:30 PM to 3:30 PM will move markets.
On Thursday, 12/19/13, BOJ 2-day meeting begins. Jobless Claims. Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Natty Gas Inventories. 5-Year TIPS Auction.
On Friday, 12/20/13, BOJ rate and policy decision. OpEx Quadruple Witching. GDP. Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations. Kansas City Fed Mfg Index.
On Saturday, 12/21/13, ….
On Sunday, 12/22/13, ….
On Monday, 12/23/13, Personal Income and Outlays. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point.
On Tuesday, 12/24/13, Durable Goods Orders. FHFA House Price Index. New Home Sales. Richmond Fed Mfg Index. Markets Close Early for Christmas Eve.
On Wednesday, 12/25/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of Christmas holiday.
On Thursday, 12/26/13, Markets Reopen for Trading. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Oil Inventories.
On Friday, 12/27/13, Natty Gas Inventories.
On Saturday, 12/28/13, …..
On Sunday, 12/29/13, …..
On Monday, 12/30/13, Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. Farm Prices.
On Tuesday, 12/31/13, EOM. EOQ4. EOY2013. S&P Case-Shiller. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM will create a market pivot. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market pivot point.
----------------------------- 2014 ----------------------
On Wednesday, 1/1/14, Markets are Closed in Observance of New Years holiday. A major Bradley turn date occurs where a major market directional move is expected in the 12/23/13 through 1/8/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one way of the other. Another Bradley turns in quick order so the beginning of the year may be a wild ride for the stock market. A new moon occurs. Markets are typically bearish moving through the new moon.
On Thursday, 1/2/14, Asia PMI’s. Europe PMI’s. Markets Reopen for Trading. Motor Vehicle Sales. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Natty Gas Inventories. Oil Inventories (one-day delayed).
On Friday, 1/3/14, …..
On Thursday, 1/9/14, a Bradley turn date occurs where a market directional move is expected in the 1/2/14 through 1/16/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one way of the other.
On Wednesday, 1/15/14, a Continuing Resolution (CR) is needed to fund and keep the U.S. government open.
On Thursday, 1/16/14, a full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon.
On Wednesday, 1/29/14, Chairman Bernanke conducts his last official two-day meeting (1/28 and 1/29) as Chair of the FOMC.
On Friday, 1/31/14, Chairman Bernanke’s term ends at the Fed. New Chair Yellen takes over.
On Friday, 2/7/14, the Debt Ceiling Limit is hit where the U.S. may default on obligations. Treasury Secretary Lew will use extraordinary measures to extend this time forward so late February or early March is a likelier deadline. Winter Olympics begin in Sochi, Russia, through 2/23/14.
On Wednesday, 3/19/14, new Fed Chair Yellen talks at the conclusion of her first FOMC meeting (3/18 and 3/19).
In February/March 2014, the Fed Chair Yellen testifies before Congress.
In March 2014, the ESM is officially “fully operational.” The Euro banking union is in place after delays from January 2013 to January 2014 and now to March 2014.
In April 2014, MSFT no longer supports Windows XP.
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