Wednesday, November 20, 2013

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross Channel Failure Potential Falling Wedge

Is today the Charlie Brown football day where he runs to kick the ball but Lucy pulls the ball away at the last minute? Such has been the story for the market bears. Each time a negative 8/34 cross occurs (red circles), the bulls do not permit any correction to occur, since Uncle Fed has their back, and within one or two days the bulls are pumping higher again. So the next couple days will be entertaining. The 8 MA is under the 34 MA signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead. The 8 MA is at 1788 so the bears need to print numbers sub 1788 to keep the 8 MA heading lower. Bulls need to move the SPX above 1788 to curl the 8 MA higher and set up a positive 8/34 cross and for Lucy to pull the football away from Charlie Brown once again.

The histogram shows positive divergence that helped create the market lift late day yesterday. Stochastics are oversold which helped to create the bounce as well. The SPX dropped through the lower rail of the blue channel and successfully back kissed the trend line and the weakness remains. Another back kiss may occur of the trend line at 1792-1794. The 2-hour chart shows continued weakness for 2 to 4 hours ahead, or perhaps 6 hours, so any buoyancy in price may give way to more of a sideways vibe. The light blue lines show a potential falling wedge forming, which is a bullish pattern. Price would need to test the 1782-1783 support level to place the low and then recover higher.

Key S/R is 1798, 1791-1792, 1782-1783, 1775, 1772, 1762-1763 and 1745.  November began at 1757. The 20-day MA is 1769.14. Simply watch to see if the bears maintain the negative 8/34 cross, if so, markets will continue lower. If the bulls send the SPX above 1788, and a positive 8/34 cross occurs today, the bulls will be back in charge and the bears will fold like a cheap suit. Bulls got nothing unless they receive a positive 8/34 cross. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:05 PM:  The SPX drops to a LOD at 1777.23 and closes at 1781.37, just under the 1782-1783 support. A downward-sloping channel is established rather than the falling wedge shown above. So watch the limits of the channel. Watch the 8/34 cross. The 8 MA is under the 34 MA signaling bearish market for the hours ahead.

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