Friday, November 15, 2013

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 11/15/13; Wholesale Trade; Yellen Aftermath

The Yellen dove rally is running its course the last couple days, ever since the privileged and insider traders were given the go signal ahead of time at noon time Wednesday. The Yellen testimony went very smoothly. Not one of the senators dared to argue with the matronly demeanor of the future Fed chair; why it would be like arguing with Aunt Bee from the Andy Griffith Show Mayberry RFD, right after she baked you a tasty apple pie out of the goodness of her sweet heart. The future Fed Chair sings a siren song not unlike the mythical femme fatales that lured sailors to a watery grave; perhaps Yellen's siren song lures the U.S. to a watery grave?

Watch UTIL 508.47, XLF 20.50 and VIX 14.06.  The bears need lower financials and higher volatility but continue to be abandoned at the altar each day. The parameters remain in their respective camps but instead of sideways markets, the bulls float the broad indexes to new all-time highs each day. The bulls need UTIL 508.47 to confirm the upside. Utilities may tell the story moving forward since the 508.47 number changes to 503.04 at the closing bell today and this bull-bear line in the sand will remain in play for all of next week. Bulls win above 503.04. Bears win under 503.04. Watch the utes closely this afternoon. Keybot the Quant remains short since underlying parameters that make up the algo are simply idling sideways and will not yet commit to the upside. UTIL above 503.04 will place the bulls in the driver seat for Monday morning and surely verify the path to SPX 1800 and higher.

For the SPX starting at the new all-time closing high at 1791, the bulls only need one point, to touch the 1792 handle, and the move to 1800 is underway. The bears must push under 1780 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1781-1790 is sideways action today. The economic data a few minutes ago has no great affect on the futures. S&P's are +3.5 ready to send the SPX towards 1800. Wholesale Trade is 10 AM and will create a market pivot point so the first hour needs to play out before markets settle in. A full moon occurs Sunday and markets are typically bullish through the full moon. Keystone's Eclipse Indicator identifies this current time period through 12/10/13 as having a high potential for a major market sell off to begin. The two recent major Bradley turns result in the market bottom around 10/8/13 and the market top around 11/3/13, but the markets launch over the last 5 days on happy Fed money-printing hype and of course the Yellen dove rally.

Charts continue to show topping behavior across the board. Low put/call ratios and volatility continue to signal a market top due to rampant complacency--no one believes the markets can drop, reminiscent of October 2007. Watch UTIL 508.47, UTIL 503.04 (not in play until next week), XLF 20.50, VIX 14.06 and SPX 1792 and 1780 to determine market direction. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. The bears got nothing until they create a negative 8/34 cross on the 30-minute chart (which should now roll over due to negative divergence across all indicators). Bulls will try to keep equities at least flat moving into the weekend but the 2-hour and 1-hour charts are beginning to top out with negative divergence.

Note Added 10:09 AM:  UTIL 503.04 on the dot hinting at further drama all day long.

Note Added 7:57 AM on 11/16/13:  UTIL 506.91 makes for happy bulls come Monday morning. The SPX and Dow print 3 consecutive days of all-time highs. Yellen may be small in stature but she packs a powerful punch creating a 3-day rally from SPX 1766 to 1798, 32 handles, +1.8%. The queen of QE has spoken and she actually appears even more dovish than anyone thought. Don't you always cut the credit cards with scissors for those that cannot control themselves? Traders are not expecting QE tapering until March or later, and this is believed to be cast in concrete, hence the big upside Yellen orgy. UTIL begins next week well above the 503.04 so this creates further upside lift and likely sets up Keybot to move to the long side. The first one-half hour of trading on Monday will be very important, the most important of all trading over the last week. Fundamentals and technical's say down but Yellen says up. Market bears need utilities to drop and that would occur with higher rates; the 10-year yield now at 2.71%. The tight standard deviation bands on the SPX daily chart (reference previous chart) squeeze out the upside thrust with price now spending 2 days above the upper band. The SPX has not back tested the 200-day MA for one-year, which is unprecedented, and verifies the power of the Fed's easy money QE.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.