Thursday, September 12, 2013

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 9/12/13

Import and Export Prices and Jobless Claims are on tap shortly. Natty Gas Inventories at 10:30 AM. 30-Year Bond Auction 1 PM. Treasury Budget 2 PM. None of these are particularly market moving. KR, LULU and ULTA earnings are on tap. LULU is puking -8% pre-market so this may impact the retail sector (RTH). The Fed decision on QE tapering is less than 5 days away. Putin keeps stirring the Syria pot keeping President Obama back on his heels in the twisted chemical weapons drama. Two 'errant' missiles were fired from Syria into the Golan Heights in Israel about 3 hours ago. Oil is moving higher on the continuing Middle East tensions that is developing into a sick soap opera.

The dollar/yen is 99.40 well off the 100+ numbers over the last few days where the weak yen fueled the market upside (weaker yen means higher dollar/yen currency pair). Yesterday was a wild market day with the Dow up 135 points and the Nasdaq negative. That is a rarity and very odd market behavior. IBM was up 4 points adding about 32 points to the Dow on its own. The low CPC and CPCE put/calls have been highlighted the last few days and both spike upwards. This is the juncture where market selling would be expected to begin, however, the put/calls can dip again, but, that will only set up the market top again. The hourly and minute charts are setting up with negative divergence and hint that the SPX and broader equities should roll over today. Of course, news events can send markets violently one way or the other at any minute.

The 10-year yield is 2.89%. As mentioned yesterday, the majority of traders expect either higher yields and higher stocks, or higher yields and lower stocks. Well, today appears lower yields and perhaps lower stocks. Lower yields and lower stocks is disinflationary and deflationary behavior. The drop in volatility provided yesterdays bull fuel. Watch VIX 14.58. The market upside will stall if VIX moves above 14.58. Copper and commodities are key; watch JJC 39.94 and GTX 4882. Bears can stop the upside move in equities if they attain either of these levels. JJC begins at 40.22 and in early trading, copper is down -1.6%, thus, JJC is targeted to open at about 39.56 which would send copper back to the bear camp and stop the up move in equities. The bulls need higher utilities to pave the way to SPX 1700+.

For the SPX today starting at 1689, the bulls only need a smidge of green in the futures and an upside acceleration will occur. The importance of the strong 1691 resistance cannot be understated. Bulls win big above 1691. Bears are in business under 1691. The bears need to push the SPX under 1679 today to regain their mojo. A move through 1680-1688 is sideways action today. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead, however, watch for a potential negative 8/34 cross today that would place the bears back in the driver's seat. Watch JJC 39.94, GTX 4882 and VIX 14.58 since any reversal of any one of these three currently-bullish parameters will stop the up move in equities.

Keystone took profits on some JO but maintains an ongoing long position and is in accumulation mode on the long coffee trade. Also took profits on KOL exiting this long coal trade. Lots of traders are now in coal and shipping stocks but they were highlighted here a couple months ago. The long WLT trade remains in place so that will continue some long exposure to coal plus the potential possibility of a takeover. Also bot ERY opening a new long position, which is the dangerous and speculative triple X inverse ETF that moves opposite to the energy sector. Reference last evenings chart. ERY is displaying very attractive launch-pad bounce potential due to the falling wedge, oversold conditions and positive divergence.

59 comments:

  1. KS, if you have a chance this weekend, can you please take a look at the $USD chart? The dollar took off in mid-June upon tapering rumors. Stocks did too shortly thereafter because of the central banks. I wonder what might happen next week after any tapering announcement - IF the more normal asset relationships prevail.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The currencies and Treasury yields may spend a lot of time forward moving sideways.

      Delete
  2. consolidation above the gap - indicates a move to at least
    1700 and probably to new highs.

    the trend is up and the cycle is only half way through.

    I await comment from the useless trolls who cry to be feed but do nothing to sow the ground.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Also to the trolls and others who thought my miners call from a couple of weeks ago was wrong headed becasue they thought the miners a good buy and I didn't, this chart is my vindication. LOL

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=13&id=p09426266638&a=298220672

      I dont lose money as you all get your life experience from TV. roflmao

      Delete
    2. Miners pull back is likely a buying opportunity. Miners, in general, should move sideways to sideways higher moving forward. Miners are coming down to fill some gaps and check the lower support levels.

      Delete
  3. All that said, there are some divergences showing up that usually only show up at bull market tops...so soon shorts will actually work.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Scott, are you still thinking Sept 23-26 as beginning of large change in trend? I find your approach intriguing and am thinking you are applying T Theory. Any good book suggestions?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes T theory is a big part of my approach.

      still looking at that time frame for the cycle

      the VO is working as it should - I'd expect any pullback to consolidate at or above the 50ma

      To jump start your study I'd suggest the T Theory archived info at http://ttheoryforum.wordpress.com/t-theory-legacy-series/

      you'll have to create a login I think but I'm sure the site is free now that Terry is gone.

      Other than that Terry's book I've posted a couple of times and the tutorials on stockcharts are really good.

      I always check various blogs to get an idea of the thoughts of others but for the most part the EW crowd is not very open to real time adjustments.

      peace

      Delete
    2. PS David, Tony over at the T Theory site has a date of Oct 1 and he is using Money flow analysis to confirm. Worth a look.

      He does think a large decline here is due after the top of the T

      good luck

      Delete

  5. With fall to 1680 today, I would be interested in initiating a short trade, ON a microbounce to 1685 with a Target of 1673 with a tight stop.

    BB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. don't think we have topped out on this bounce yet, nice h&s forming on this top. if this rolls at 1687.5 looks like a short to me.

      Delete
    2. first sell signal now, looking for confirmation

      Delete
    3. confirmation short now

      Delete
    4. need to stay below 1685 and drop below 1682.5 if not looks like inv h&s and the down may be over.

      Delete
  6. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p38620135058&a=305384923&listNum=4

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=1&id=p28939467770&a=314076402

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75742872915&listNum=6&a=315786700

    ReplyDelete
  7. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA&p=D&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&id=p23203976840&a=310228940&listNum=6

    ReplyDelete
  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p14961096723&a=312297654&listNum=4

      I wouldn't short unless 1680ish is taken out on this chart especially since the 130ma is rising

      Delete
    2. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75742872915&listNum=6&a=315786700

      I dont have many charts supporting a case for shorting here.

      Delete
    3. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAHL&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p92318293907&a=313071820&listNum=6

      Delete
  9. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07687691077&a=313444570&listNum=6

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. the steepness of the VO on the nasdaq AD line indicates that the next decline probably will be a big one.

      thinking that that decline is beginning now is not supported

      Delete
  10. KS-

    Do you still like NUGT at $51?

    FeS2

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Keystone has not been able to update the price levels on the Positions and Picks page lately, but NUGT at 54.08 now, at the 50.5-53.0 gap fill, is likely a buy now or lower. The long can be scaled in if NUGT continues to slip. NUGT is a dangerous and speculative triple X ETF. So it would not be surprising to see the gap bot here and for miners to move sideways to sideways up moving forward.

      Delete
  11. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=W&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p92431064753&a=304188453&listNum=4

    ReplyDelete
  12. Scott - what did you say to have your comment deleted Bro?

    no trade as yet initiated - still waiting, will short if we intraday 1682.3 within the next hour and bounce to 1685 afterwards - tight stop mind you guys - will close short at 1674 -

    BB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I deleted it myself to edit the post because I typed "would" instead of "wouldnt" - see the post right after - just cleric my kind and loving friend!

      KS didnt axe me LOL

      Delete
    2. by the way

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HC9yD8YqXYI

      Delete
    3. oh by the by BB - the blog actually says that I (the author) deleted the post.

      I guess mean people cant read.

      http://i1.cpcache.com/product/83517704/random_acts_of_kindness_bumper_sticker.jpg?color=White&height=460&width=460&qv=90

      Delete
  13. Its hard to say something accurate without sounding far too involved with you - but I will just say that in spirit only - you are clearly the reincarnated combination of Princess Diana and Mother Teresa - such do you so robustly defend your bullish charts against the Trolls whilst never wavering from your commitment to be the guiding light that frankly we all need - in what has been up until last week an untradeable market - sweet as jesus, ray bans on - neon lights - illuminate baby - illuminate the path to financial salvation

    BB - of course this is meant in the lightest of hearts possible.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. if your put half as much work into your analysis of the market as you do in your caustic stupidity then you migh actual make some money.

      here is another inspiration for you but it may be too hard for you brain with its death grip on self-importance.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNK:TLT&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20599816891&a=294295637&listNum=4

      when the charts turn bearish, guess what Dukkha butt, so will I! lol

      Delete
    2. untradable market - then why have you been pleading with everyone to give you advice on HOW to trade.

      there are some very mean twisted folk here

      IRS agents or Hicksville county employees that take a paycheck instead of make one?

      Delete
  14. aside from the fact that my analysis has been correct -

    i stated a drop to 1640 and then liftoff - my target is still 1608 then 1580

    i put my trades up real time - so take it easy with the name calling

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. pleading with everyone to give me advice on how to trade

      I think you are confusing me with someone else Scott.

      BB

      Delete
    2. ME take it easy - youre a crap mouth attack dog - I havent seen a single trade posted by anyone except KS of late (including you, one of the many UNNAMED anons - LOL!)

      I've told everyone what my holdings are - anyway, so what.

      Stop fing attacking people and put some charts up or show some data base analysis instead of invective, smear, ego and all that crap.

      Me take it easy! jesus. I must have hit a cord with the take a paycheck comment - must be true.

      what a leech. you leech off others to live and you want to leech of the analysis here as well and get your kicks by slamming people.

      take a hike

      Delete
  15. WOW - Scott its like you are attacking everyone on this Blog suddenly -

    I wont be pushed into a defensive position based your emotional breakdown.

    BB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. wow BB - stop pushing if you dont like getting pushed back.

      you gonna act like a smart ass bully I'll hand you your ass in a bucket.

      Delete
    2. hahahahaha make it a bucket of bud

      BB

      Delete
    3. yes so very witty - that would be, I think your problem. AA doesnt really work but you might consider it.

      http://www.aa.org/subpage.cfm?page=71

      Delete
  16. OK - guys, A short has been confirmed either here or at 1685 if you want to wait for a microbounce at 1689 its invalidated. short now or on a microbounce if futures are down then let it go. If futures are up short at will the stop is 1689 - I am short. 1683 - I am closing mid 1670's

    BB -

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. she agrees with you:

      https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS7DDfbWx31hVQKJPRFX4h51AYRUhkZOKWmpfy16ivO3WEnXU-zSA


      LOL

      Delete
    2. I was at 1683.75 Sept contracts but booked it 4 a hit which I may re visit another time

      Delete
  17. hahaha

    lol

    you do have a sense of humor

    BB

    ReplyDelete
  18. the quality of comments here has dropped since this Scott guy has appeared.
    KS, please do something.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes please do something...

      afterall he simply posts charts and never responds to anyone unless he is attacked...

      what crap

      Delete
    2. Is that you V / GS ???

      Delete
    3. Scott why are you so insecure? I can only imagine it's because you can't accept the fact that your charts are worthless and you lose money just like everyone else.

      It's a 50-50 in the long run no matter how many times you olay with your charts.

      Charles B. III

      Delete
    4. another turd! where's James B Statton III (the turd) or Dr. Sheldon Cooper!

      insecure for sure! money lose for sure!

      Hey isnt it prime time back east - keep that boobtube on Faux Charles the Turd

      50/50 you say? well since I've been posing my charts I'm at 100% - you?

      Keep track of everyone except yourself brother.

      that's the ticket! roflmao

      Delete
    5. Beam me up Scottie!!!!!! Can I come and play in the alturnative universe you live in? HAve you been taking your meds Scott? You know what the Dr said about dilusions when you stop taking the meds

      VPIN!!!!!!!

      Delete
  19. KS,

    How does FCX look to you as a long? It is interesting how it acted well today, in spite of JJC being weak.

    Also, how does MTL look as a long? This Russian steel producer is down from $58 in 2008, and appears to be casting aside its bear trend.

    TW

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FCX appears to have some more upside but an interesting descending triangle is forming on the weekly chart. FCX may print 33-36.5 over coming days or weeks but it probably has more sideways in it than anything, there are better plays out there.

      MTL does have a healthy move higher off its base. Weekly chart is long and strong. Keystone does not invest in Russia due to the corruption. All countries are corrupt but Russia is one of the leaders in this dubious distinction. No offense to the Russian people, it is simply the way things are. In business years ago, for associates traveling to Russia, they packed three items; cash, chocolate and vodka. These are the three things that allow you to move through the country with getting minimal things stolen and minimal harm to oneself. You can wake up any given day and a Russian company can simply be taken by the government, if it is not already. Keystone will likely not invest in Russia no matter how attractive some plays may be. The Olympics will probably give them a boost. RSX moving sideways.

      Delete
  20. I can no longer look at or participate in the comment section KS. I am sorry but this "Scott" character has an agenda that is arrogant, unprofessional and of no help to anyone. Sorry to name names, but the comment section of the blog is really a waste now. I've been a "lurker" occasional commenter for probably 3 years. Not anymore. I'll just be visiting your posts which are helpful. thank you

    ReplyDelete
  21. I started reading this blog about 2 years ago. KS - I enjoyed your humor. I don't trade but really like to get an insight into all that people look at/analyze/consider when they do trade.

    When V and GS Guy started posting - it was pretty clear it was the same guy. Their tone, punctuation, manner of speaking ... were all very similar. They always posted within minutes of each other.

    I also have a suspicion Scott is 'related' to V/GS Guy.

    If I've learned anything over the last two years - this blog was fairly clear of commenting nut jobs. All of a sudden, there is a flurry of the same type of activity from these posters - - identify the trend!

    I think someone has instituted a plan to deliberately wreck this blog for a personal reason.

    It's a shame.

    D.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well said D., as well as the post above yours! There is no way a trader can trade well AND post a flurry of criticism like what's been happening lately. Let's get this blog back to being objective, not emotional. IP filter?

      Delete
    2. if I've learned anything over the last couple of weeks its that anon is the internet equivalent of multiple personality disorder...

      you don't "participate" you excoriate !!!!!!!!!!!!

      lol

      Delete
    3. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-set-to-name-summers-as-fed-chief-report-2013-09-13?link=MW_home_latest_news

      Obama will name Summers as FED chief!

      p.s. I'm V, not GS , not Scott , not nobody else! I stopped commenting due to personal reasons not related to KS.
      My opinion is that Scott would be a great commenter here if:
      - he would stop being agressive.
      - he would be more concise than he is.
      - he would understand that respecting others is a form of self-esteem.

      This blog has a distinct personality of it's own due to KS's work. Comments section is an appendix, something not necessary, the space given as a gift from KS to others.
      Every person uses this gift as a way to express his own structure and personality.
      The comments section does not impact the general quality of the site.

      A behaviour less agressive would be welcomed when it comes to comments.

      V.

      Delete
    4. I'm only aggressive in response

      to the passive aggressive school yard bullies

      if you like your school yard full of ignorant twits, then I cede it to you.

      blog away invective excoriators! lol

      Delete
  22. Everyone needs to settle down and simply follow the markets and not get caught up in personal battles, all that does is use your energy up on worthless endeavors. Scott, you may want to go for quality, not quantity, on the charts. Try writing a sentence or two for any link to explain what the chart shows. Do not take comments to heart, folks do not appear to have malice, so no need to get riled up.

    Copper collapse today placed the lid on the market upside so watch JJC 39.94 closely. Volatility recovered late day and is near, but still under, VIX 14.58. If VIX stays under 14.58, equities will float sideways with some upward buoyancy. If VIX moves above 14.58, equities will take another leg lower. If short, VIX 14.58 will make you smile, if long, you want low volatility. Keep the recent low CPC and CPCE put/call ratio's in mind, this must be respected.

    The Comments section can be eliminated with a simple check mark in the blog software but everyone seems civil, simply stick to market commentary, as everyone basically does.

    ReplyDelete

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