Friday, September 20, 2013

SPX Daily Chart Upward-Sloping Channel Upper Standard Deviation Band Violation Tweezer Top Negative Divergence

The big spike higher from the Fed pump two days ago sends price up through the upper standard deviation land (pink lines). This will require a reversion back to the middle band, which is also the 20-day MA at 1669.17, and rising, at a minimum, moving forward. Typically price will want to seek the lower band as time moves along. The red upward-sloping channel also shows price at testing the top rail, also a logical place for a pull back. The price action over the last two days show intraday spikes higher, that pulled back, creating a potential tweezer top (the two skinny upper shadows on the last two candlesticks look like a tweezer (blue circle)). The indicators are overbot and negatively diverged although the MACD line, histogram and money flow have a touch more bull juice available. Thus, price may jog sideways for a day or three as it tops out.

The weekly chart is negatively diverged but a one to two week sideways jog is possible on that chart, thus, price may move along the upper rail of the channel above at 1722-1730 through next week as the Continuing Resolution (CR) drama plays out into a crescendo on Sunday 9/29/13 and Monday 9/30/13, only 10 days away (6 trading days). The political circus will take over from the Fed circus in recent days. Projection is topping action in the SPX leading to roll over; sideways to sideways lower going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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