Sunday, September 15, 2013

Keystone Key Events and Market Movers for Trading the Week of 9/16/13

(At 4:30 PM EST, Larry Summers withdrew from consideration for the Fed Head. Traders assume Yellen will be in, who is perceived to be very dovish, which means more QE easy money, so futures explode higher, S&P's +19, Dow +180 and Nasdaq +36. Dollar drops and gold and silver are higher.)

Key Dates and Times for the Trading Week Ahead:

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Monday, 9/16/13: The Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government deadline is only 2 weeks away and the Debt Ceiling Limit is reached in one month. Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM.  Industrial Production 9:15 AM. Earnings: RTI, SHIP, TBAC.
Tuesday, 9/17/13: FOMC Meeting begins with traders listening for ‘QE tapering’. CPI 8:30 AM. TIC data 9 AM. Housing Market Index 10 AM. Markets are typically bullish from a Tuesday low to a Wednesday high for OpEx week. Earnings: ADBE, CIM.
Wednesday, 9/18/13: Berlesconi expulsion vote. Mortgage Applications 7 AM. Housing Starts 8:30 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. FOMC Meeting Announcement and Forecasts 2 PM. Chairman Bernanke Press Conference 2:30 PM—market pivot points. Markets are typically bullish through the full moon. Earnings: FDX, GIS, MLHR, MANU, ORCL, SCS.
Thursday, 9/19/13: Full moon. Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. Philly Fed, Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales 10 AM—market pivot point. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM. Fed’s Pianalto speaks 11:30 AM. 10-Year TIPS Auction 1 PM. Earnings: CAG, HIS, PIR, RAD, TIBX
Friday, 9/20/13: OpEx-Quadruple Witching. Atlanta Fed Inflation Expectations 10 AM. Fed’s George speaks 12:30 PM.  Fed’s Tarullo speaks 12:40 PM. Fed’s Bullard speaks 12:55 PM. Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks 1:45 PM. Earnings: DRI

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Sunday, 9/22/13: Germany reelects Merkel and now there is no longer a need to keep countries like Greece or Cyprus in the euro, or even Germany itself.
Monday, 9/23/13: Flash PMI’s. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM. Fed’s Lockhart speaks 9:20 AM. Earnings:
Tuesday, 9/24/13: Fed’s Pianalto speaks 8:30 AM. FHFA House Price Index and Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9 AM. Richmond Fed Mfg Index and Consumer Confidence 10 AM—market pivot point. Fed’s George speaks 12:30 PM. 2-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Earnings:
Wednesday, 9/25/13: Mortgage Applications 7 AM. Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM.  New Home Sales 10 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. 5-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Earnings:
Thursday, 9/26/13: Corporate Profits, Jobless Claims and GDP 8:30 AM. Pending Home Sales 10 AM. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM. Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks 12:15 PM. 7-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Fed’s George speaks 9:15 PM. Earnings:
Friday, 9/27/13: Fed’s Evans speaks 5:45 AM. Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM—market pivot point. Fed’s Dudley speaks 2 PM. Farm Prices 3 PM. Earnings:

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Sunday, 9/29/13: The CR Continuing Resolution deadline is tomorrow so Congress and the president will likely perform their last minute clown antics to find a solution. The Whitehouse scandals, and Syria and Middle East problems, are distracting the president and politicians from addressing the U.S. fiscal problems.
Monday, 9/30/13: EOM; EOQ3. The CR Continuing Resolution to fund the U.S. government deadline occurs. Will the shutdown be averted? Chicago PMI 9:45 AM—market pivot point. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM. Markets are typically bullish from the last day of the month through the first four days of the new month. Earnings:
Tuesday, 10/1/13: Q4 begins. China and Asia PMI’sEuropean PMI’s. Construction Spending and ISM Mfg Index 10 AM—market pivot point. The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) exchanges open so people without health insurance can sign up for healthcare but will the exchanges be ready? Earnings:
Wednesday, 10/2/13: Mortgage Applications 7 AM. ADP Jobs Report 8:15 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. Earnings:
Thursday, 10/3/13: Challenger Job Report 7:30 AM. Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. ISM Non-Mfg Index and Factory Orders 10 AM—market pivot point. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM. Earnings:
Friday, 10/4/13: Monthly Jobs Report 8:30 AM.  European bank stress tests will occur in Q4. Also, now that the elections are over and Merkel is reelected, Germany’s high court must decide if the ECB’s OMT program is constitutional, or not. Earnings:

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On Friday, 10/18/13, the nation reaches its Debt Ceiling Limit (projection is sometime between 10/18/13 and 11/5/13). Will the debt ceiling be raised to avoid a downgrade of U.S. debt?

------------------------  2014  ---------------------------

On Friday, 1/31/14: Chairman Bernanke’s term ends at the Fed. Yellen and Kohn are candidates for the position, and perhaps Bernanke or Geithner as well.  Summers had to bow out so Yellen appears to be the choice, however, the possibility of Bernanke extending his term, or Geithner riding in on a white horse to take the job, have to be placed on the table as well.
On Friday, 2/7/14Winter Olympics begin in Sochi, Russia, through 2/23/14. Watch $RTSI and RSX.
In February/March: the new Fed Chairman testifies before Congress.
In March: ESM is officially ‘fully operational’. The banking union schedule has been delayed from January 2013 to January 2014 and now to March 2014.

16 comments:

  1. futures ramping into the stratosphere...
    Shame, I was looking forward to closing the gap into the fed meeting.

    KS,

    Should I assume this is a gap and crap situation? Summers resigning doesn't change anything. I've gotta think the market gapping to new highs on this news is just a bull trap?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Perhaps, all you can do is take it hour to hour. The move may develop momo and require a top in the 1715-1730 range now.

      Delete
  2. so maybe the PERSONAL ATTACKS and the recent KS pile on of those, will end as we make new highs and the CPC is seen to be a "false positive" as it sometimes is.

    those THAT KNEW the pullback was a secondary reaction knew and still know that the cycle is only half finished and the CPC is meaningless in the face of a confirmed VO "T".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You know so much! Ks, I want the old blog back.

      Delete
  3. Scott Betting the market has an upward bias is a no brainer. What are you trading ETF's?

    ReplyDelete
  4. I've shared my positions in the past and you keep asking the same question.

    I was recommending tlt on Aug 2 and became bullish on aug 19-20th when I posted this chart (note the date of the centerpost!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07687691077&a=313444570&listNum=6

    for those who continue to think passive/aggressiveness is an adaptive strategy (rather than evolutionary brain damage!)I am currently 25% Rydex 2x dow, 25% Rydex 2x SPX, 10% USD, 20% TLT and 20% cash...

    that may change any give day but I DO NOT DAY TRADE - I trade within the confirmed cycle and the cycle is bullish whether you like it or not...lol

    honestly it is time for people to THINK FOR THEMSELVES.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. so anon, what does knowing my positions DO for YOU?

      lol

      Delete
  5. Ok, I'll get my money out of my broker account. This is a broken game this US stock indexes... If futures can make a new all times high on Summers decision when nothing really have changed in the US economy... I have to say that US stocks are a mouse-trap designed to TAKE YOUR MONEY!

    If the decision of one single man can be more important than all the fundamental signals , if TA signals are in complete darkness due to cotinuous centralized CB intervention... I will not short again , but be sure that I WILL NEVER EVER put my money in stocks/etf's AGAIN!

    They are designed to take your money!

    Dear Mr. Bernanke I wish you have exceptional successes in reducing the participation rate (monthly volumes) in stocks by gangster-type CB monetary direct intervention (via primary dealers) in stocks!

    If anybody takes a look on monthly charts on SPX any normal person will see the huge drop in volumes ever since 2006-2007 till now (not to mention also the volumes/price level related steepening dropping yield on spx 500)!

    Guess why?

    BECAUSE EVERYBODY SEES THE FED's FELONY!
    If everything is so rosy and great WHY THE VOLUMES ARE DROPPING ? Where is the participation?

    Mr. Bernanke , you and you s**t-head QE policy will destroy US economy. Why? Because you can't have a sustainable economy and a sound and clear stock-market using China-type interventions like QE is!

    I say it lound and clear!
    Freedom is a dead dream in US!
    GL all!

    I'm out of this game!

    V.
    p.s. Scott, please be civil and spare me with any of your 'intelligent' comments! Volumes on monthly SPX charts are more important that any TA signal on hourly/daily charts !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree. I'm closing it down tomorrow. Trying to short this market has been a nightmare all year. Now one guy decides he doesn't want a job and the global economy goes into a full-on orgy. This is not capitalism, it's cheating. The irony is that when it all falls apart, they'll blame capitalism and propose more regulations and intervention and stupid Americans will surrender more rights and jump on the regulation band wagon and this will never end. Those Americans who perpetuate this system through their ignorance are as guilty as the politicians and central bankers. I'm out of the game. Will collect physical metals going forward. This is just plain dumb at this point. Great talking with you guys. Lot of intelligent folks here. Good luck to all. Thanks for all the input from KS and all participants.


      FeS2

      Delete
    2. "Now one guy decides he doesn't want a job and the global economy goes into a full-on orgy. This is not capitalism, it's cheating."

      True.
      I'm out also. I'll take some popcorn and cola the next 'n' stock market sessions and I'll just watch bots playing with no human participation.
      FU Ben! You have destroyed a great thing - the US stock markets - with your decisions!

      Frank (Belgium)

      Delete
  6. V,

    Dont get so upset yet...just watch USA, we are slowly turning into Communism just like the old time China, everything is controlled by the Fed/CBankers.
    On the other hand, China is changing to become Capitalism.

    Pretty soon, our freedom and retirement benefits will be taken away too!
    No more social security by the time we retire!

    Debt ceiling will be.....ha ha ha! USA!
    Recession is on the way!

    And why do you think so many Americans are moving to Singapore and other countries to settle?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Guys, If we hold Resistance, the rally is just a head fake to get us out of shorts......we have not broke the high yet. They need to push us to the limit which is about now. Not unusual, most highs include a standard shakeout..... BTW - the game has been rigged since the beginning. It is just a lot faster and a lot more complex now. But, shaking out weak hands before a big move up or down is how the game is played. My 2 cents.

    ReplyDelete
  8. It is interesting how the gaps always tend to be filled and the tiny 1707 gap was remaining. The move back up to the 8/2 highs is a 100% Fib retracement. The Summers announcement shows why you need fingers in all kinds of different pies, that way, something will work for you no matter what the market throws at you. It will be an interesting start to the week. The prior all-time intraday and closing high is 1709.67 so this number is very important. It may be a wild roller coaster ride this week.

    ReplyDelete
  9. No way, all I need now is for the fed to play some games on Wednesday like postpone the taper to next month and I'll be eating and selling plantanes by a road side shanty. No thanks.

    FeS2

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete

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