(5:04 AM EST on 9/23/13; Merkel wins a third term for four more years; China PMI slightly better than expected; China imports lower; copper and oil lower; Eurozone PMI a touch under expectations; S&P futures +3)
Key Dates and Times for
the Trading Week Ahead:
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Sunday,
9/22/13: Germany reelects Merkel and now there is no longer a need
to keep countries like Greece or Cyprus in the euro, or even Germany itself. Autumn begins in the northern hemisphere.
Monday,
9/23/13: Flash
PMI’s. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM. Fed’s Lockhart speaks 9:20 AM. Fed’s Dudley speaks 9:30 AM. Fed’s
Fisher speaks 1:30 PM. MSFT releases an updated surface tablet. Markets are usually weak between September OpEx
and mid-October. The week after
September OpEx is down about 80% of the time. Window dressing is on tap for the remaining days of Q3 which works counter to the expected seasonal weakness. The new Fed Chairman may be announced this week.
Earnings: DFS, PNX, RHT, THO.
Tuesday,
9/24/13: Fed’s Pianalto
speaks 8:30 AM. FHFA House Price Index and Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9 AM. Richmond Fed Mfg Index and Consumer Confidence 10 AM—market pivot point. Fed’s George speaks 12:30 PM. 2-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Earnings: CCL, KMX, KBH, LEN, SINO.
Wednesday,
9/25/13: Mortgage Applications 7 AM. Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM. New Home Sales 10 AM—market pivot point. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. 5-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Earnings:
AZO, BBBY, FUL, JBL, PRGS.
Thursday,
9/26/13: Corporate Profits, Jobless Claims and GDP
8:30 AM. Pending Home Sales 10 AM. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM.
Kansas City Fed Mfg Index 11 AM. Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks 12:15 PM. 7-Year Note
Auction 1 PM. Fed’s George speaks 9:15 PM. Earnings:
CAN, MKC, NKE, OSN, WOR.
Friday,
9/27/13: Fed’s
Evans speaks 5:45 AM. Personal
Income and Outlays 8:30 AM. Fed’s Rosengren
speaks 8:30 AM. Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM—market pivot point. Fed’s Dudley
speaks 2 PM. Farm Prices 3 PM. Earnings: FINL, MTN.
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Sunday,
9/29/13: The CR Continuing Resolution deadline is tomorrow so
Congress and the president will likely perform their last minute clown antics
to find a solution. The Whitehouse scandals, and Syria and Middle
East problems, are distracting the president and politicians from
addressing the U.S. fiscal problems.
Monday,
9/30/13: EOM; EOQ3.
The CR
Continuing Resolution to fund the U.S. government deadline occurs. Will the
shutdown be averted? Chicago
PMI 9:45 AM—market pivot point. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM. Markets are
typically bullish from the last day of the month through the first four days of
the new month. Earnings:
Tuesday,
10/1/13: Q4 begins.
China and
Asia PMI’s. European PMI’s. Construction Spending and ISM Mfg Index 10 AM—market pivot point. The Affordable
Care Act (Obamacare) exchanges open so people without health insurance can
sign up for healthcare but will the exchanges be ready? Earnings:
Wednesday,
10/2/13: Mortgage Applications 7 AM. ADP Jobs Report 8:15 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. Earnings:
Thursday,
10/3/13: Challenger Job Report 7:30 AM. Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. ISM Non-Mfg
Index and Factory Orders 10 AM—market
pivot point. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM. Earnings:
Friday,
10/4/13: Monthly Jobs Report 8:30 AM. European bank stress tests will occur in Q4. Also,
now that the elections are over and Merkel is reelected, Germany’s high court must decide if the
ECB’s OMT program is constitutional, or not. Earnings:
-------------------------------------------------------------
On
Friday, 10/18/13, the nation
reaches its Debt Ceiling Limit (projection is sometime between 10/18/13 and
11/5/13). Will the debt ceiling be raised to avoid a downgrade of U.S.
debt?
------------------------ 2014 ---------------------------
On
Friday, 1/31/14: Chairman Bernanke’s term ends at the Fed. Yellen and
Kohn are candidates for the position, and perhaps
Bernanke and Geithner as well. Summers
had to bow out so Yellen appears to be the choice, however, the possibility of
Bernanke extending his term, or Geithner riding in on a white horse to take the
job, have to be placed on the table as well.
On Friday,
2/7/14: Winter Olympics begin in
Sochi, Russia, through 2/23/14.
Watch $RTSI and RSX.
In
February/March: the new Fed Chairman testifies before Congress.
In
March: ESM is officially ‘fully operational’. The
banking union schedule has been delayed from January 2013 to January 2014 and
now to March 2014.
Hi KS!
ReplyDeleteI have reviewed the media (business insider, marketwatch, cnbc, others) and seems like in a speech today after 13.00 EST hour Mr. Obama will announce the next FED chairman. The biggest chances are Ms. Yellen's.
This is bullish or bearish? I guess that being a Bernanke's follower this must be bullish, isn't it?
Thank you,
V.
Yep, Yellen has the reputation for being just as dovish if not more so than Bernanke. However, once Summers was axed as a choice last week, which created the big Monday morning spike one week ago, some of that juice is probably attributable to traders thinking that Yellen was a shoe-in. Who knows? Maybe the announcement will be a surprise with Bernanke staying on, or Geithner taking the job, but both are low probability. Markets may pop on the news but the guess is that the markets may have already priced in Yellen last week.
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