Monday, September 23, 2013

Keystone's Key Events and Market Movers for Trading the Week of 9/23/13

(5:04 AM EST on 9/23/13; Merkel wins a third term for four more years; China PMI slightly better than expected; China imports lower; copper and oil lower; Eurozone PMI a touch under expectations; S&P futures +3)

Key Dates and Times for the Trading Week Ahead:


Sunday, 9/22/13: Germany reelects Merkel and now there is no longer a need to keep countries like Greece or Cyprus in the euro, or even Germany itself. Autumn begins in the northern hemisphere.
Monday, 9/23/13: Flash PMI’s. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM. Fed’s Lockhart speaks 9:20 AM. Fed’s Dudley speaks 9:30 AM. Fed’s Fisher speaks 1:30 PM. MSFT releases an updated surface tablet. Markets are usually weak between September OpEx and mid-October. The week after September OpEx is down about 80% of the time. Window dressing is on tap for the remaining days of Q3 which works counter to the expected seasonal weakness. The new Fed Chairman may be announced this week. Earnings: DFS, PNX, RHT, THO.
Tuesday, 9/24/13: Fed’s Pianalto speaks 8:30 AM. FHFA House Price Index and Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9 AM. Richmond Fed Mfg Index and Consumer Confidence 10 AM—market pivot point. Fed’s George speaks 12:30 PM. 2-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Earnings: CCL, KMX, KBH, LEN, SINO.
Wednesday, 9/25/13: Mortgage Applications 7 AM. Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM.  New Home Sales 10 AM—market pivot point. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. 5-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Earnings: AZO, BBBY, FUL, JBL, PRGS.
Thursday, 9/26/13: Corporate Profits, Jobless Claims and GDP 8:30 AM. Pending Home Sales 10 AM. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM. Kansas City Fed Mfg Index 11 AM.  Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks 12:15 PM. 7-Year Note Auction 1 PM. Fed’s George speaks 9:15 PM. Earnings: CAN, MKC, NKE, OSN, WOR.
Friday, 9/27/13: Fed’s Evans speaks 5:45 AM. Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM. Fed’s Rosengren speaks 8:30 AM.  Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM—market pivot point. Fed’s Dudley speaks 2 PM. Farm Prices 3 PM. Earnings: FINL, MTN.


Sunday, 9/29/13: The CR Continuing Resolution deadline is tomorrow so Congress and the president will likely perform their last minute clown antics to find a solution. The Whitehouse scandals, and Syria and Middle East problems, are distracting the president and politicians from addressing the U.S. fiscal problems.
Monday, 9/30/13: EOM; EOQ3. The CR Continuing Resolution to fund the U.S. government deadline occurs. Will the shutdown be averted? Chicago PMI 9:45 AM—market pivot point. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM. Markets are typically bullish from the last day of the month through the first four days of the new month. Earnings:
Tuesday, 10/1/13: Q4 begins. China and Asia PMI’sEuropean PMI’s. Construction Spending and ISM Mfg Index 10 AM—market pivot point. The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) exchanges open so people without health insurance can sign up for healthcare but will the exchanges be ready? Earnings:
Wednesday, 10/2/13: Mortgage Applications 7 AM. ADP Jobs Report 8:15 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. Earnings:
Thursday, 10/3/13: Challenger Job Report 7:30 AM. Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. ISM Non-Mfg Index and Factory Orders 10 AM—market pivot point. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM. Earnings:
Friday, 10/4/13: Monthly Jobs Report 8:30 AM.  European bank stress tests will occur in Q4. Also, now that the elections are over and Merkel is reelected, Germany’s high court must decide if the ECB’s OMT program is constitutional, or not. Earnings:


On Friday, 10/18/13, the nation reaches its Debt Ceiling Limit (projection is sometime between 10/18/13 and 11/5/13). Will the debt ceiling be raised to avoid a downgrade of U.S. debt?

------------------------  2014  ---------------------------

On Friday, 1/31/14: Chairman Bernanke’s term ends at the Fed. Yellen and Kohn are candidates for the position, and perhaps Bernanke and Geithner as well. Summers had to bow out so Yellen appears to be the choice, however, the possibility of Bernanke extending his term, or Geithner riding in on a white horse to take the job, have to be placed on the table as well.
On Friday, 2/7/14Winter Olympics begin in Sochi, Russia, through 2/23/14. Watch $RTSI and RSX.
In February/March: the new Fed Chairman testifies before Congress.

In March: ESM is officially ‘fully operational’. The banking union schedule has been delayed from January 2013 to January 2014 and now to March 2014.


  1. Hi KS!
    I have reviewed the media (business insider, marketwatch, cnbc, others) and seems like in a speech today after 13.00 EST hour Mr. Obama will announce the next FED chairman. The biggest chances are Ms. Yellen's.

    This is bullish or bearish? I guess that being a Bernanke's follower this must be bullish, isn't it?

    Thank you,


    1. Yep, Yellen has the reputation for being just as dovish if not more so than Bernanke. However, once Summers was axed as a choice last week, which created the big Monday morning spike one week ago, some of that juice is probably attributable to traders thinking that Yellen was a shoe-in. Who knows? Maybe the announcement will be a surprise with Bernanke staying on, or Geithner taking the job, but both are low probability. Markets may pop on the news but the guess is that the markets may have already priced in Yellen last week.


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