Friday, September 13, 2013

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross H&S

The 8/34 MA cross is key today to dictate the direction forward. The 8 MA begins the day above the 34 MA signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead, however, the 8 and 34 are within 50 cents of each other. The bears will receive the nod forward if the 8 MA falls under the 34 MA so watch it closely during the first couple hours of trading. The red lines show the rising wedge and negative divergence spank down that was highlighted over the last couple days. The indicators are weak and bleak wanting lower prices although the histogram and stochatics are flat. A move lower in the SPX, however, can send the histogram and stochastics lower quickly.

The thin brown lines show a mini H&S with head at 1690 and neck line at 1682, so a target of 1674, which is exactly where price gapped-up to create the current island. An island reversal would occur with a quick drop from 1675 to 1672. The thick teal lines show the strongest S/R levels at 1691, 1685, 1669, 1652, 1649 and 1639. Projection is for the negative 8/34 cross to occur and a move to test 1678, then 1675, and perhaps a drop under 1672. The SPX may desire a sideways move into the Fed on Wednesday afternoon through the 1669-1691 range. The bulls need good news before the opening bell so a large upward thrust can occur to negate the potential negative 8/34 cross on tap. The negative 8/34 cross would create bear fuel and if you see the VIX move above 14.58, the downside for equities will be real. If the VIX stays under 14.58, then price is going to favor a sideways dance with some buoyancy into the Fed next week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/14/13 at 8:23 AM:  The bears needed to eat more Wheaties, unable to create a negative 8/34 cross, yet. The markets remain in a very indecisive mode stumbling towards the Wednesday Fed announcement that determines the fate of QE. The SPX, 8 MA and 34 MA are all moving together now in a straight horizontal line. The 8 remains above the 34 so the bulls are given the nod for the hours ahead, however, Monday's opening bell is critical, since it will determine the 8/34 cross, and will have a huge impact on market direction for trading early in the week. The first few minutes of Monday may very well determine market direction into the Wednesday Fed. Syria developments, China and Japan economic news, and the Sunday evening futures all require monitoring this weekend.


  1. ks,

    what do you think about the CBOE and bats systems going down. I would think the VIX would spike on this news but I don't know if I can rely on the current reading.

    1. It was a very short outage of two of the options platforms, so it did not have a big effect. Everyone is getting used to the regular 'computer glitches' occurring, however, one wonder's how ready they will be if there is a Flash Crash redux, or lock limit down opening to markets?


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