Wednesday, September 18, 2013

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross Ascending Triangle Patterns Overbot Negative Divergence

On Fed day, anything can happen, but the technicals are lined up for the bears. The blue ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, however, when price is overbot and throwing off negative divergence, the pattern is placed into question. On 9/12/13 and 9/13/13, price was moving sideways and the indicators wanted to see lower lows print. This set the table for Monday morning. Lo and behold, on Sunday evening, Larry Summers is drop-kicked across the parking lot as a potential Fed Head, and the markets catapult higher on Monday morning. Charts can only build in the most current up to the minute information. Any new events require time for the affects to appear in the charts. So the Summers euphoria has passed now and here we are in another ascending triangle so the bulls are smiling again.  A break through the 1705 ceiling would create a target at 1718 for the green triangle pattern to play out (the triangle's side is 1692 to 1705, 13 points, so 1705+13 = 1718).

However, the indicators are negatively diverged as price prints matching and higher highs. The stochastics are overbot. The indicators want to see price fall and the ascending triangle pattern would be negated. As always, the 8/34 MA cross is the most important item on the 30-minute chart so pay attention to that today. The 8 is above the 34 signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. The 8 MA is 1704.61 so if the bears can keep price under 1704.61 and lower, they can curl the 8 to the downside for a potential negative 8/34 cross. The 2-hour, 1-hour and 30-minute charts are all agreeable to seeing price top here and roll over to the downside. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:10 PM:  Just before the Fed announcement minutes ago, the 8 dropped under the 34 to signal bearishness but the shocking Fed announcement of 'no taper' catapults the SPX vertically to the ascending triangle 1718 target highlighted above.

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