Keystone’s Contemplations
(where observational thinking, abstract pondering,
meditative reflections, and stream of consciousness writing rule the roost)
2026 United States Mid-Term Election Roadmap and Predictions
for Election Day 11/3/26; Blue Ripple More Likely than Blue Wave; Affordability
Key Issue but Candidate Selections Are Limited; House May Flip to the Democrats
but Senate Likely to Remain with Republicans
By K E Stone (Keystone)
Every two years, Keystone writes an article for the US
elections. Last time was November 2024 the King Donnie Trump reelection saga.
Click here if you want to relive that circus drama. This time around in
November 2026 is the mid-term elections with all the House members and
one-third of the Senate vying to keep their jobs.
We are less than two weeks away from the US mid-term
elections that dictate the makeup of the House and Senate. The House is 435
total seats with 218 currently held by the republicans (conservatives; MAGA;
right-wing; GOP (Grand Ole Party); authoritarian-leaning; red; elephant) and
democrats (liberals; progressives; left-wing; leftists; socialist-leaning;
blue; donkey) hold 214 seats. Two seats are vacant and one is held by an
independent. 218+214+2+1=435.
The republicans hold the slim 4-seat advantage but the
expectation is that the House will flip to the democrats with perhaps a 4 to
10-seat advantage. Some say a much bigger landslide is on tap with a couple
dozen seat advantage for democrats but that is probably wishful thinking. Of
course, the republicans hope to hold the House even if it is with a slimmer
margin than 4 seats.
The democrat more common-sense establishment is concerned
that the radical left candidates (there are several in this election cycle)
that spout antisemitic remarks and cheer for a move towards a socialist
government will be elected, and then hold up democrat legislation unless their
radical agendas are followed. America’s corrupt crony capitalism system is
twisted into a knot that can’t be undone. Back Against the Wall by SonVolt.
The US Senate consists of 100 seats two for each state. The
republicans hold the majority with 53 seats with the democrats at 45 seats. Two
seats are independent but they typically side with democrats bumping that
number to 47. Democrats are cheering that they can take the Senate as well as
the House but that may be wishful thinking. A more realistic outcome is that
the republican majority may slip by a hair.
House members serve 2-year terms while senators enjoy 6-year
terms. All of the House members face elections every two years while only one-third
of the senators are up for election every two years. Some of the House members
become entrenched in their position and the electorate gets used to voting for
the same old name every two years. This is the time of year when politicians
show up in communities with big cardboard checks spreading money around so
everyone remembers their name in the voting booth. Such is the crony capitalism
system.
All of Keystone’s election articles start at the same place
with the most important election metric that is rarely, if ever, wrong; the
right track/wrong track poll. If Americans view the country as on the right
track, the party in power will be rewarded at the voting booth. If, however,
the party in power is viewed as being on the wrong track, they will receive a
beating. The US is currently on the wrong track so democrats are favored.
As Emperor Obama faded from power in 2016, and republican Trumpski
competed against democrat Crooked Hillary Clinton, the country was thought to
be on the wrong track, so Donnie won. When Trump went for reelection in 2020
against democrat Sleepy Joe Biden, the dementia patient, while the COVID-19
pandemic raged on, the country again thought America was on the wrong track.
Biden won and Trump was booted from office.
Trump managed the COVID-19 pandemic poorly telling everyone
the US was ‘rounding the corner’ until he caught the virus and almost died.
Biden won in large part due to Trump’s incompetence at handling the pandemic
but most of all because the country was on the wrong track. Two years ago, for
the 2024 election, again, the country was on the wrong track so Harris, that
was thrown into the race because Biden displayed his mental illness in front of
the world on the debate stage, was defeated by Trump.
Donnie Chump won the election two years ago mainly because
many Americans could not bring themselves to vote for Kamala the cackling
communist and the country was on the wrong track. The US is on the wrong track
currently, so this is a big advantage for the democrat candidates.
About 260 million Americans are eligible to vote but only
155 million made the effort for the presidential election two years ago. Typical
turnout for presidential elections is about 60% and about 40% for mid-term
elections. The presidential elections always have a bigger turnout. Lots of
democrats stayed home two years ago in protest to the Biden mess that
prohibited a proper democrat primary from taking place. This behavior handed
the election to republican Donnie.
About 112 to 118 million Americans voted in the last
mid-term elections 30 or 40 million less votes than the presidential cycle. It
will be interesting to see how the total vote this time around compares. Are
you taking the over or under to 115 million voters for the upcoming election?
Perhaps only 100 million will show up to vote since a majority of Americans are
unhappy with the current mess in the world and the US.
How will a low turnout impact the results? Generally, low
turnout may favor the democrats while a higher turnout than expected may
benefit the republicans but this projection is unpredictable and akin to
reading tea leaves or turning over Tarot cards.
An NBC News (democrat-run media) poll says 71% of Americans
believe the country is on the wrong track not a good omen for the republicans. Only
29% say the right track. Ouch. The number may be a bit high since it is
reported by a democrat-run media source. Parse the news you hear depending on
where you hear it.
The democrat-run media that will always report the news with
a left-leaning slant are CNN, MSNOW, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, NPR, New York Times,
Washington Post, etc…Note how the democrats dominate the broadcast news
channels (ABC, CBS, NBC) and public television (PBS, NPR). Most of the democrat
party are ‘never Trumper’s’ and suffer from TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome)
where they must disagree and fight against Trump no matter what, even if he
announced a cure for cancer.
The republican-run media that will always report the news
with a right-leaning slant are Fox News, Newsmax, OAN, Breitbart, AM talk
radio, New York Post, etc… The republicans enjoy a larger cable news viewership
with Fox News and Newsmax compared to CNN and MSNOW. Most of the republican
party are ‘always Trumper’s’ and suffer from TSS (Trump Sycophant Syndrome)
where they will defend even the most stupid thought, comment, or idea that
comes out of Donnie’s orange mouth. Trump said he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue
and all his little sycophants would not care and he was right. Instead, the
Trump sycophants would appreciate the opportunity to lick Donnie’s shoes each
day.
The Decision Desk data averaging several polls says 64%
wrong track and 31% right track providing support for the NBC data. Based on
the most reliable election indicator available, the right track/wrong track
poll, democrats should put a substantive beating on the republicans.
During mid-term elections, the president in power typically
loses seats to the opposite party; it is a given and expected but is this time
different? This is another metric in the democrats favor but the radical
democrat candidates do not appeal to the general population and may be a
counterweight to the two positive aspects mentioned.
The 2022 mid-term elections were interesting because competency
was a key factor that no one considered. Both democrats and republicans were
elected or reelected because they were viewed as competent managers. If this
mindset repeats, many voters will diss the radical democrat candidates
believing their socialist agenda is not a prudent path forward for the United
States.
Turnout will dictate the winner. The corrupt democrats and
republicans will probably cancel each other out and the independents will dictate
the winners. The independents went for Trump two years ago but the failure to
deliver lower prices and other broken promises has the independents skewing
towards democrats this time around.
Trump’s tax cuts and the relief from taxes on tips and
overtime only served to cover part of the higher inflation costs brought on by
Donnie’s tariffs and the Iran War he started that has now morphed into a Middle
East War. During the campaign, Trump promised to end the Ukraine War in 24
hours but he knew all along that was a lie. Donnie said he would lower prices
on day one another lie. Prices and inflation are higher than when he entered
office.
Trump is not releasing the Epstein files instead choosing to
hide the documents from the public since they likely involve tawdry details
about First Lady Melania and how Donnie and Melania met. In addition, Trump is
protecting the rich donors that contribute to the republican, or retrumplican,
party, since most of them likely loved the supple young bodies they enjoyed on
Epstein’s island. Don’t you love crony capitalism filth?
The independents are not the only ones unhappy with Trump’s
performance. Blacks are disillusioned especially because of Trump firing
government employees. A lot of government positions are filled by people of
color trying to get experience and a leg up to other economic and job opportunities
but the crony capitalism system flushes their hopes and dreams down the toilet
again. There are likely lots of folks of color that are related to or know
someone that got canned from their job and are now struggling to get by. These
folks are not happy with the republicans.
Do not forget the Latinos that happily voted for Donnie
Chump thinking that construction jobs would be plentiful and it would be easy
to make a living. But Trump’s aggressive move to round up and remove illegal
immigrants from the US has hit a sour note. Americans assumed that Trump would
focus on the criminal illegal immigrants, and he has, but no one considered
that he would deport anyone that is in the country illegally regardless of
whether they ever committed a crime or not.
Neighbor Carlos, that is a great community member and loved
by all, with great kids, is rounded up like a two-bit murderer, handcuffed,
roughed-up for fun, thrown into a paddy wagon, and deported. Carlos is guilty
of entering the US illegally 27 years ago. He and his family’s lives are now in
shambles. Americans do not want to see this happen; surely there is a better
way.
Since Latinos are most impacted by the immigration crackdown,
their opinion on the Don has soured. The incompetent demopublicans and
republocrats, more concerned about staying in power and shoving money in their
pockets than debating legislation, have failed the country over the last
decades refusing to solve the immigration problem. Now the immigration problem,
that should have been a clear win for Donnie, descends into a crap hole.
An advantage for republicans is money. Their war chest of
campaign funds is far bigger than the democrat stash. A lot of this money will
go into television ads that will run non-stop into the election. Negative ads
work so the vitrail is already flying across television screens. The negativity
is far more degrading nowadays compared to decades ago when a candidate would
accuse their opponent’s mother of wearing army boots.
Nowadays any piggish filth that can be found out about a
person’s past is fair game for a campaign ad whether it is verified or not.
This is why many people that would like to serve in public office do not. No
one wants their antics from high school or college to be on full public
display.
The republicans reshaped some of the congressional maps in
several states (gerrymandering) to provide an advantage in the mid-term elections.
The crony capitalism filth is on display everywhere every day. The democrats
are no different favoring redistricting if they can secure an advantage. Typically,
the gerrymandering does not produce much of an advantage and sometimes the
moves backfire.
There are 22 key House races on tap; Arizona’s 6th District,
California’s 22nd District, Colorado’s 8th District, Florida’s 14th and 22nd
Districts, Iowa’s 1st District, Michigan’s 4th, 7th and 10th Districts, Montana’s
1st District, New York’s 17th District, North Carolina’s 1st and 11th
Districts, Ohio’s 7th and 9th Districts, Pennsylvania’s 8th and 10th Districts,
Texas’s 15th and 34th Districts, Virginia’s 1st and 2nd Districts, and
Wisconsin’s 3rd District.
The 22 close House races above are in 14 different states. Deciphering
the numbers as best as possible, there are 6 incumbent democrats, 14 incumbent
republicans, and 2 open seats in those 22 states. The 22 key tossups may split
down the middle with the democrats maybe in favor by a seat so 11-11 or 12-10
and we can throw a 13-9 in there also. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot that
is why Keystone is not invited to the Halloween gala, the democrats may gain
from 5 to 7 seats in the House and that would be enough to gain control of the
chamber.
After the smoke clears from the elections, the democrats
will probably control the House but only by the same slim margin, or less, as
the republicans now enjoy. This outcome would open the door to the scenario
mentioned above where a few radical leftist democrats may hold the House
hostage preventing legislation to pass unless they are given concessions.
In the Senate, 35 seats are up for grabs but only 10 races
appear competitive; Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New
Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. 11 senators in 11 states are
leaving office seven republicans and four democrats. Republicans may lose one
of these races.
For the 10 tossups, 4 may end up in the democrat camp and 6
in the republican camp if you add 4 percentage-points to the republican
candidate polls to allow for poll bias that has shown to not properly account
for republican voters. The 10 tossups states start with 3 in the democrat camp
and 7 in the republican camp. Thus, democrats may gain a Senate seat, or maybe
two, depending on how the night goes.
The US Senate is currently 53 republicans and 47 democrats
(2 independents caucus with democrats) so the margin will likely narrow to
52-48 or 51-49 but the republicans should maintain control by a hair.
Thus, approaching the tossup elections with an open mind and
picking winners and losers, the House will likely flip to democrat control but
with only a 2 to 5 seat majority. The Senate will likely remain in republican
control but the margin will narrow providing only a 1 or 2 vote advantage for
republicans.
If this scenario plays out, it will likely result in
gridlock in Washington, DC, into the presidential election November 2028.
Typically, gridlock is good since both corrupt incompetent political parties
cannot do as much damage. Wall Street usually likes gridlock since the
political arena does not impact stocks. However, we live in different times.
America’s crony capitalism filth system is in its last
throes. These times call for action from deadbeat politicians but do not expect
any greatness from these corrupt souls. Many problems need addressed but a
House under democrat control by a hair and Senate under republican control by a
hair does not cut the mustard. Nothing will get accomplished. It likely seals
the deal on America’s six-decade walk down the primrose path.
The US middle class has been gutted starting with former
President Ronnie Ray-gun in the 1980’s. He busted the unions (airline traffic
controllers) and started shipping America’s middle-class jobs overseas to take
advantage of the cheap slave labor. This lowers company expenses and shot
stocks into the stratosphere on higher earnings making the wealthy class filthy
rich while destroying the middle class. The wealthy class benefits themselves
since they own the stock market. One-half of Americans do not own a single
share of stock. Are you starting to understand crony capitalism filth?
Fast forward 50 years and America consists of 30 million
wealthy folks at the top and 300 million peons at the bottom. The middle class,
that was the fabric of the nation and the glue that held the United States
together, is toast. That’s gone never to return. Capitalism does not exist in
practice. It only resides in the pages of theoretical business and economics
textbooks.
America is a faux free market crony capitalism system (not
capitalism). If you accept the fact that capitalism does not exist, everything
occurring nowadays will make a lot more sense. The US has always been a nation
where it is more important who you know or who you are related to rather than
your skills or knowledge. That is not capitalism.
Americans want the good side of capitalism where everyone is
working with many job opportunities and the stock market is screaming higher,
but no one wants to feel the pain of the downside of capitalism where
businesses and corporations, and banks, must go bankrupt and people will lose
jobs. This is the cleansing mechanism that is the hallmark of the capitalism
system. Instead, the bloated and mismanaged companies are bailed out by the
government mainly to protect the wealthy class that own the stock market and
other major investments that would be adversely impacted. This is not
capitalism. It is crony capitalism filth. And people want to save this?
Do not worry, however, since there is nothing you can do
about it. The politicians, including whatever grifter and corrupt individual is
installed as president in two years, are only placeholders in the failing crony
capitalism system. It does not matter who is in office. The coming months and
years will be chaotic, violent and historic. Even if you are math-challenged,
you understand that 300 million is a lot bigger number than 30 million, right?
The drama and silly season around the election is increasing
with intensity each day closer to the 11/3/26 elections. The Senate races are
receiving lots of attention. In Alaska, incumbent republican Dan Sullivan is
trying to keep his seat as the democrats place another man named Dan Sullivan
on the docket to create confusion.
In the Texas senate race, democrat James Tallarico is
battling republican Ken Paxton. Republicans make fun of Tallarico for being a
vegan although it appears that he does eat beef (a Texas staple). Tallarico
favors trans rights and other liberal policies that may not jive with
red-necked Texas so republicans call him “Talla-freako.” Paxton has his own
baggage looking like a corrupt criminal for his past deeds and he is not the
best campaigner. Trump selected Paxton after he destroyed republican John
Cornyn’s career, that may result in a lost republican seat.
In Michigan, democrat Abdul El-Sayed is running against
republican Mike Rogers for the senate seat. El-Sayed is one of the radical
democrats that would likely promote a progressive socialist agenda if elected.
He refuses to discredit Iran and the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps;
radical Islamist terrorists) that may be his downfall. Remember, all radical
Islamists are Muslims, but not all Muslims, not by any stretch, are radical
Islamists.
It is time for October surprises to occur where dirty tricks
are played on candidates to hurt their chances. In the Ohio governor race,
republican Vivek Ramaswamy or his associates, release a video of his opponent’s
mother stating that her daughter, Amy Acton, is a liar and should not be
elected. As it turns out, the mother is not receiving any motherhood awards due
to her past and one of her husbands likely molested Amy years ago. The video
may backfire on Ramaswamy and help Amy Acton.
There are likely more October surprises in store including
perhaps a big barrage of missiles and drones targeting US military bases and
ships in the Middle East by the radical Islamists in Iran and their Houthi
partners in Yemen. The IRGC will hope to disrupt the US elections and cause
problems for Trump.
Other factors impacting the mid-term elections include
Trump’s approval rating at a dismal and record low for both his terms at 29% to
36%. King Donnie has made a mess around the world and domestically. Chump
promised he would never start a forever war until he started a forever war in
the Middle East.
Another key factor, that no one talks about, is the Elon
Musk factor. Musk has money to burn and has dedicated millions into the
elections hoping to boost the republican chances. Musk sinks the dough into the
ground game and people have short memories that this was a major factor for
Trump winning two years ago.
The democrats are always known for their solid ground game
and beating on doors to get the vote out. That took a back seat two years ago
with Musk money developing a republican ground game that was just as solid as
the democrats if not superior. With Musk pumping $27 million into the
republican ground game this time around, it will likely make a difference and
will probably be a key reason the republicans maintain control of the senate.
Yard signs can be a tell on the elections. Here in
southwestern Pennsylvania, apathy is at play. There are not many yard signs for
candidates anywhere. One guy down the road put a few signs in his yard but
oddly there were two for democrats and one for a republican. Maybe that was a husband-and-wife
compromise. At any rate, the lack of yard signs indicates a lack of interest in
the elections and voting. With no relief in sight to high prices and inflation month
after month, the 300 million peons in America realize that no one is going to
help them, so why should they care anymore?
Affordability is a top issue on voter’s minds. Trump
promised to lower prices and inflation on day one of his presidency but that
was a lie. Common Americans can find no relief from the high cost of living
these days that is sending people into debt to survive. King Donnie asks, “What
is the big deal that you pay a little more for gas when I saved the world from
a nuclear bomb (says he).” Trump is out of touch with the economy just like
Biden. Rich people do not feel your pain.
Affordability is on everyone’s minds but unfortunately most
candidates up for election do not offer significant management experience. Even
though affordability is key, it will likely not resonate much in the selection
process. On a bigger scale, talking generally, the affordability issue will
favor democrats over republicans.
Donnie Chump may be losing his gravitas. He is an official
lame-duck president. The presidential election cycle for 2028 will heat-up
starting on November 4th. Presidential primary elections will be coming fast in
the spring of 2028. King Donnie is on his farewell adoration tour this campaign
season trying to receive as much applause as possible over the coming days to
feed his needy narcissistic ego.
Some republican candidates, especially those in purple
states (equally split between democrats and republicans), have distanced
themselves from Donnie and even asked him not to campaign in their states
because they do not want the Trump stink to rub off on them.
The mid-term elections will likely result in a blue ripple instead
of a blue wave. The big tsunami blue wave is cheered for by democrats that are
referencing polls that may be artificially skewed in their favor. If a blue
wave does occur, it will embolden the radical faction of the democrat party and
hasten the demise of the crony capitalism system. If the democrats are beaten
like a rented mule, that may actually knock sense into the party and move it
back to a left of center approach in front of the upcoming presidential
election cycle.
If the democrats suffer a disappointing loss or do not meet
expectations, it may also destroy the democrat party. If the radical leftists
insist on doubling and tripling down going forward after a less than stellar
performance in this election, it will split the democrat party apart. The
common-sense democrats would have to split away from the radicals and the
democrat party may split into two parties. Of course, the republicans would
love this scenario and benefit from the democrat chaos.
Trump may be panicking perhaps from his own internal polling
since he is holding his adoration rallies in ruby red states that should
automatically vote republican. Then again, the simple reason he is on the
campaign trail seeking adoration may be because he needs to seek adoration and
stand in front of a loyal adoring sycophant crowd for five minutes allowing his
subjects to applaud and cheer him. That’s Our Donnie.
Early voting numbers may provide insight into how the
elections are developing. Which party is stacking the deck with early voting to
gain an early advantage and momentum? So far, in the tossup states discussed
above, the turnout and return of mail-in votes is robust not favoring either
party yet. This behavior may indicate that turnout will be a little larger than
would be expected for the mid-terms and that provides a slight advantage to
republicans.
US election days are always set by the first Tuesday after
the first Monday in November. This year Election Day falls on Tuesday, 11/3/26.
On Election Day, watch the polls and note how the folks are
dressed, their ages, and sex. More women vote than men in US elections. If the
polls are stacked with female voters, that may bode well for democrats. If they
are blonde women with silver crosses around their neck, that will boost the
republican chances.
A lot of young folks voting will likely favor democrat
candidates as well as voters in more colorful and flamboyant clothes and those
with pink and purple hair. If more of the voters are donning suit jackets and
business attire, perhaps carrying a briefcase, that will favor a republican
turnout. Turnout is key and will likely dictate the winner.
Keystone’s prediction (that and a dollar will get you a cup
of coffee), is for the House to flip to the democrats with a 4-seat advantage
while the Senate should remain in republican control but the majority may
dwindle to only a 51-49 or 52-48 advantage. Of course, the democrats will claim
a great victory saying they will now show King Donnie who’s boss and Trump will
boast that the republicans did fine and a blue wave did not occur. Life goes
on.
If you vote, good
luck to you choosing one corrupt criminal over the other.
Note Added Friday Morning, 10/23/26, at 8:00 AM EST: The mid-term elections are only 11 days away. The Ohio governor race takes a bad turn for republican candidate Ramaswamy as blowback occurs for the video released by his team showing his opponent's mother dissing her daughter, calling her a liar, when it appears that the mom was not a good mother still defending her husband that molested the democrat candidate. She will now receive a sympathy vote as the video outrage, some of it faux, slaps Vivek silly. What a soap opera. Bye-bye Vivek. He wasted the last 2 years of his life kissing Ohio arse each day. Some democrats and democrat-run cable television outlets such as CNN are starting to have second thoughts about the polls and the potential for a blue wave tsunami that sweeps both the House and the Senate. They probably performed a similar exercise to Keystone above and added in 4 percentage-points for the republican candidates because polls do not seem able to properly account for this demographic. Analysts will be watching the results versus the polls as much as who wins.
